By David Poland email@example.com
Weekend Estimates by Klady: The First BO Dude Still Alive
It was, oddly, a pretty shock-free weekend. Potter’s drop is utterly reasonable, given last weekend. Captain America, whether the number ends up being slightly better than Thor or slightly under Thor, is pretty much The Marvel Number now… which is not to say every opening matches, but the end result, at least domestically, pretty consistent.
Sony is, no doubt, a little disappointed with the Friends With Benefits launch. But the answer to “why?” is pretty clear in the demographics in the exit polling… 56% over 25. Timberlake & Kunis are celebrities and popular with young audiences, but the college kids and younger didn’t show up in force to watch them have sex and fall in love. (SPOILER ALERT! Ha.) Less problematic, but also telling about the box office is a 62% female audiences. It seems that, for fifth R-rated comedy this summer, the answer was “not dirty enough.”
It’s really been a remarkable summer run for these films, whether the critical consensus was great, good, weak, or hateful. The Hangover: Part II leads with $252m domestic. Then Bridesmaids with $164m. And heading to the $100 million mark are both Horrible Bosses and Bad Teacher, with Bosses on its way to passing Ms Diaz in the next couple of weeks. FWB will probably end up grossing in the low 60s. And we still have The Change-Up coming. Some would put 30 Minutes Or Less in that category too.
Meanwhile, FWB also extends the “seen it before” theme of the weekend, as its opening is just about a million more than Easy A, with a then little-known-by-name Emma Stone. Maybe Sony should set up a lunch for Will Gluck with Adam Sandler, who specializes in drawing teen boys to the theaters. Or not. I like Gluck’s films and would hate to see them ruined by chasing boys with fart jokes.
Meanwhile, it’s looking like the search for $400m domestic between Transformers 3 and Potter 8 could come up short for both films. And it’s also possible that Tr3 will end up staying ahead of Pot8 domestically. Internationally, Potter is likely to win that battle. But at home, with Trannies 3 heading up to, perhaps, $375m domestic, it’s easy to forget that Potter has never done $320m domestic, much less $400m. It will be the biggest Potter here, but overtaking the autobots will not be easy.
ADD: Paramount reports that TR3 has now hit $882.4m worldwide, making it the biggest of the trilogy.
Finally, in the same theme, Woody Allen’s audience is back to a precision target set by Sony Classics… and even losing screens, the film is estimated to be exactly even with last weekend. Impressive.