MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report: July 31, 2011

And the Winner Is …

It was an unexpected horse race at the box office with the cross genre Cowboys & Aliens going toe-to-toe with the animated exploits of the original Blue Men Group The Smurfs. Initial estimates gave the former a slight edge with $36.1 million to the latter’s $36 million but that could all change tomorrow. The session’s other national opening was the ensemble comedy Crazy, Stupid, Love that bowed fifth with $19.1 million.

Regionally the slacker comedy Starbuck slurped up close to $200,000 from its Wednesday debut in Quebec and brewed up an additionall $410,000 on the weekend. There was also a solid start for the Punjabi Jihne Mera Dil Luteya of $98,500 at 18 venues (13 in Canada where ex-pats are most conspicuous).

Limited and exclusive debuts also heated up with the Irish set offbeat thriller The Guard ringing up $78,100 at four sites and the dramatic Iraqi war drama The Devil’s Double grossing $90,800 from five screens. The non-fiction Life in a Day realized $48,200 from 11 engagements and French import Point Blank had a $30,500 box office from six initial dates. And American indie The Future was off to a fast start of $27,300 at a solo Manhattan flight.

The frame also saw a significant pop for the specialized Sarah’s Key that opened in Quebec and added U.S. dates for a new total of 38 engagements and close to a $10,000 theater average.

Overall weekend sales topped $180 million that amounted to a slight 7% dip from seven days ago. It was a significant 22% bump from last year when the third weekend of Inception trumped the launch of Dinner for Schmucks with respective grosses of $27.5 million and $23.5 million.

Tracking going into the weekend clearly favored Cowboys & Aliens with estimates generally around $40 million or better. Conversely The Smurfs were given a top end of $25 million that placed it behind continuing runs of both Captain America and the Harry Potter finale. Also undervalued was Crazy, Stupid, Love that was expected to open between $15 million and $18 million.

The cowpokes vs. the Giger-like invaders _ as with most summer spectacles _ couldn’t draw in the increasingly evasive under 25 crowd with exit polls identifying 63% of buyers as 30 years or older. The good news was that the audience wasn’t overwhelmingly male. The lads accounted for 53% of the pic’s total.

Exit demos were much more to the anticipated profile of Crazy, Stupid, Love with a 64% female, 71% older than 25 years breakdown. But the head scratcher is The Smurfs beginning with a 45% slice for its 3D engagements. The current industry wisdom is that movies that skew very young and very old are now likely to register less than 40% from stereoscopic playdates.

The Smurfs attracted 65% of its sales from families which was less than what had been anticipated. Of that slice of ticket buyers, 61% were parents and overall 55% of the crowd was identified as more senior was 25 years old. Objectively speaking it would appear that movie goers are more nostalgic for the cerulean toned Belgium little folk than the grizzled, sagebrush heroes.

Weekend (estimates) July 29 – 31, 2011
Title Distributor Gross (avg) % chng Thtrs Cume
Cowboys & Aliens Uni 36.1 (9,630) NEW 3750 36.1
The Smurfs Sony 36.0 (10,610) NEW 3395 36
Captain America: The First Avenger Par 25.1 (6,760) -61% 3715 117
Harry Potter & the Deadly Hollows, Part 2 WB 22.0 (5,310) -54% 4145 318.5
Crazy, Stupid, Love WB 19.1 (6,320) NEW 3020 19.1
Friends with Benefits Sony 9.2 (3,150) -50% 2926 38.1
Horrible Bosses WB 7.1 (2,820) -41% 2510 96.2
Transformers: Dark of the Moon Par 5.9 (2,280) -51% 2604 337.9
The Zookeeper Sony 4.2 (1,720) -52% 2418 68.7
Cars 2 BV 2.2 (1,260) -61% 1763 182
Winnie the Pooh BVI 1.7 (1,050) -67% 1632 22.4
Midnight in Paris Sony Classics 1.2 (2,570) -33% 471 46.9
Bridesmaids Uni .84 (1,730) -36% 484 165.4
Bad Teacher Sony .79 (1,030) -70% 765 96.7
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par .66 (2,070) 108% 319 161.7
Mr. Popper’s Penguins Fox .45 (1,090) -52% 412 64.6
Starbuck Seville .41 (4,800) NEW 85 0.6
Sarah’s Key Weinstein/A-Z .37 (9,840) 225% 38 0.54
The Hangover Part II WB .37 (1,068) 23% 346 253
Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara Eros .36 (4,430) -46% 82 2.6
The Tree of Life Searchlight/eOne .32 (1,630) -42% 196 11.7
Super 8 Par .27 (830) -62% 325 124.9
X-Men: First Class Fox .26 (880) -47% 295 144.7
Larry Crowne Uni/Alliance .26 (780) -75% 335 35.1
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $172.10
% Change (Last Year) 22%
% Change (Last Week) -7%
Also debuting/expanding
Snow Flower and the Secret Fan Fox Searchlight .18 (1,920) -11% 93 0.7
Attack the Block Sony .13 (16,080) 8 0.13
Beats, Rhynes & Life Sony Classics .12 (2,900) -14% 43 0.8
Another Earth Fox Searchlight .11 (5,330) 37% 20 0.22
Jihne Mere Dil Luteya Viva .10 (5,470) 18 0.1
Devil’s Double Lions Gate 90,800 (18,160) 5 0.09
The Guard Sony Classics 78,100 (19,520) 4 0.08
Life in a Day Nat Geo 48,200 (4,380) 11 0.09
Point Blank Magnolia 30,500 (5,080) 6 0.03
The Future Roadside 27,300 (27,300) 1 0.03
Cooking in Progress Lorber 10,400 (10,400) 1 0.01
Sega Third Eye 9,800 (1,400) 7 0.01
The Interrupters Cinema Guild 8,500 (8,500) 1 0.01
Adventures of Pureza ABS 5,200 (2,600) 2 0.01
Golf in the Kingdom Lightning 3,700 (3,700) 1 0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – July 28, 2011)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Paramount (14) 1312.8 21.30%
Warner Bros. (20) 1118.7 18.10%
Universal (12) 774.4 12.50%
Buena Vista (11) 725.8 11.70%
Sony (16) 677.7 11.00%
Fox (11) 572.5 9.30%
Weinstein Co. (8) 184.5 3.00%
Relativity (5) 125.3 2.00%
Lions Gate (9) 118.7 1.90%
Fox Searchlight (9) 103.9 1.70%
Focus (5) 77.4 1.30%
Summit (6) 69.6 1.10%
Sony Classics (11) 64.1 1.00%
CBS (3) 57.5 0.90%
Film District (1) 53.9 0.90%
Other * (206) 139.6 2.30%
6176.4 100%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Global Grossers * (Jan. 1 – July 28, 2011)
Title Distributor Gross
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV 1,035,049,335
Transformers: Dark of the Moon Par 936,251,956
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows, Part 2 WB 931,252,919
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par 604,586,547
Fast Five Uni 603,981,607
The Hangover 2 WB 572,016,741
Rio Fox 477,359,573
Thor Par 447,733,925
The King’s Speech * Weinstein/FilmNation 408,632,718
Cars 2 BV 373,718,780
X-Men: First Class Fox 348,330,632
Tangled * BV 296,514,084
Black Swan * Fox Searchlight 287,437,939
Rango Par 243,074,591
Bridesmaids Uni 241,044,150
The Green Hornet Sony 227,892,167
Just Go With It Sony 215,073,990
Battle: Los Angeles Sony 202,644,827
Gnomeo and Juliet BV/eOne; Pathe 194,703,331
Gulliver’s Travels * Fox 192,572,601
Tron: Legacy* BV 186,746,403
The Tourist Sony/GK Films 184,182,136
Hop Uni 183,325,478
Super 8 Par 182,432,920
True Grit Par 180,745,073
* does not include 2010 box office

2 Responses to “The Weekend Report: July 31, 2011”

  1. RoyBatty says:

    “The current industry wisdom is that movies that skew very young and very old are now likely to register less than 40% from stereoscopic playdates.”

    Seems this is a wisdom sitting on very shaky ground, because unless the % of 3D screens is a constant there’s too much fluidity in the factors for that wisdom.

    Also, there are 4 other films in 1,000+ wide release taking up 3D real estate. In fact, CAP AMERICA & H POTTER are on more screens than SMURFS. Goes to reason if exhibitors buy into this theory, they probably put SMURFS on the bare minimum of their very busy 3D screens.

  2. SamLowry says:

    Ho ho! More adults than kids sat through the Smurfs?

    Does not bode well at all.

    (So if the kids hadn’t shown up, it would’ve had a typical “Geek 20″ opening?)

Leave a Reply

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
If I Stay 6.8 2907 NEW 6.8
Guardians of the Galaxy 4.8 3371 -31% 239.3
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.5 3864 -44% 133.3
Let's Be Cops 3.2 3140 -44% 37.4
When the Game Stands Tall 2.9 2673 NEW 2.9
Sin City: A Dame to Kil For 2.6 2894 NEW 2.6
The Giver 4.7 3003 -57% 23
The Expendables 3 1.9 3221 -68% 19.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 1.6 1944 -23% 28.8
Into the Storm 1.1 2375 -54% 35.6
Also Debuting
Mardaani 52,400 76
Love is Strange 36,500 5
The One I Love 12,800 10
To Be Takei 6,800 15
Tu dors Nicole 5,800 3
Keyed: A Deadly Game of Sex Lies Betrayal 3,800 1
Are You Here 3,000 14
Expedition to the End of the World 2,200 1
The Prince 1,850 10
The Possession of Michael King 1,800 4
Salvo 1,150 2
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office