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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Aldus Klady

Working on the analysis… but curious whether this chart works better or worse for readers. I am pretty sure it’s a lighter load for the computer… but do you need the grid to keep it all clear?

Weekend (estimates) July 15 – 17, 2011
Title Distributor Gross (avg) % chng Thtrs Cume
Harry Potter & the Deadly Hallows, Part 2 WB 168.6 (38,540) NEW 4375 168.6
Transformers: Dark of the Moon Par 21.1 (5,390) -55% 3917 302.7
Horrible Bosses WB 17.2 (5,490) -39% 3134 59.6
The Zookeeper Sony 12.3 (3,540) -39% 3482 42.4
Cars 2 BV 8.3 (2,560) -45% 3249 165.3
Winnie the Pooh BVI 7.8 (3,250) NEW 2405 7.8
Bad Teacher Sony 5.1 (1,920) -43% 2659 88.4
Larry Crowne Uni/Alliance 2.5 (1,110) -57% 2287 31.6
Super 8 Par 1.9 (1,290) -61% 1459 122.2
Midnight in Paris Sony Classics 1.8 (2,560) -31% 706 41.7
Bridesmaids Uni 1.6 (1,880) -38% 872 161.2
Mr. Popper’s Penguins Fox 1.3 (1.320) -58% 1002 61.4
Green Lantern WB 1.3 (1,310) -60% 973 112.7
Monte Carlo Fox 1.2 (1,050) -68% 1169 20
Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara Eros .82 (8,910) NEW 92 0.82
X-Men: First Class Fox .61 (1,300) -59% 470 143.3
The Tree of Life FxSrchlt/eOne .60 (2,560) -24% 235 10.1
The Hangover Part II WB .52 (1,150) -56% 455 251.9
Pirates of the CaribbeaN 4: OST BV .47 (1,270) -55% 373 237.3
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par .44 (1,240) -49% 354 160.1
Beginners Focus .41 (2,410) -26% 170 3.9
Thor Par .37 (1,360) -35% 272 179.5
Also debuting/expanding
A Better Life Summit .32 (1,490) -2% 216 1
Le Sense de l’humour Alliance .29 (3,140) -30% 93 1.4
Beats, Rhynes & Life Sony Classics .14 (6,350) 25% 22 0.29
Snow Flower and the Secret Fan Searchlight .13 (5,520) 24 0.13
Deiva Thirumagan UTV .10 (4,750) 22 0.1
Tabloid IFC 90,300 (6,450) 14 0.09
Undefeated Cindigm 65,700 (6,570) 10 0.07
Project: Nim Roadside 42,200 (1.920) 63% 22 0.08
Life Above All Sony Classics 13,600 (2,720) 5 0.01
Salvation Blvd. IFC 7,400 (1,480) 5 0.01
Lucky Phase 4 4,800 (1,200) 4 0.01

The only time, amongst the big openers, that I can find that mirrors the Potter 7a weekend is for the film with the second biggest Friday on record, Twilight: New Moon… but even that isn’t close to this. New Moon opened to $72.7m on Friday and had a $142.8m weekend, putting it just short of doubling opening day over the full weekend. Every other case of a movie with an opening Friday over $40m (P7a is the 12th), has the opening day at least doubled by the 3-day weekend for the film. Even Pirates 3, which opened with late Thursday screenings, did 3x the combination of those screenings AND the full Friday.

Be clear… there is nothing bad about a $169 million domestic opening weekend. But on 3D bump numbers alone, it isn’t an audience increase over The Dark Knight. And since there is only a 3 summer space between the two films, I think in this case, we are closer to oranges and 3D oranges. Potter is the biggest opening of all-time, but as I wrote yesterday, the meaning of openings is an ongoing focus of interest.

What are we seeing this summer? Already, we have more $80m-plus openings (4) than any summer in movie history, including the 2007 summer of the three mega-triquels. And we’re still waiting on Smurfs and Change Up! But seriously folks, we are still waiting on Cowboys & Aliens and Rise of the Planet of the Apes. But even if neither has an $80m+ mega-opening, we have still had a mighty summer of openings.

But we are also seeing some nice, longer legs on the mid-range hits. Bridesmaids is the outstanding one. The other R-rated comedies are playing out really nicely, though Hang2 was more frontloaded. There’s not a single major studio release with less than $20m in the coffers domestically and with the exception of Priest (which did $50m overseas) and Monte Carlo (which was cheap enough to be a good bet to see black ink before it’s done), it looks like $35m will be the low end for studio movies in domestic this summer. Last summer there were 13 major studio releases (not counting re-releases, stunts, or Dependents) to gross under $35m domestic. Universal had 4 out of its 7 summer releases…. this year, with Larry Crowne heading over $35m, they have none… and the biggest surprise hit of the summer.

It looks like the Worldwide opening will be $80m+ better than the previous record-holder, Potter 6… which didn’t get to a billion, in spite of a $394 million start. HP6 did their number over a 5-day launch. So the heat is significantly greater here and $1 billion still feels like a reasonable expectation. But, you know, you never know. Could the push towards bigger and bigger openings lead somewhere that the studios didn’t really want to go? HP6’s previous record opening led to a worldwide total 2.4x the open. That result would mean $1.14 billion for 7b. That would make it #3 all-time, just passing Rings 3.

Once again… great opening. I am not diminishing that. But when you see the Twilights and Transformers and yes, Harry Potters not quite getting over that hump, even with broken records all over the place, you have to wonder whether, in this regard, in a market with increasing reliance on theatrical revenues for profitability, speed kills.

And though it’s a bit boring already, look at Nikki Finke, who gets her ideas of box office directly from the studios that tell her what to write. For the second significant time this summer, you could see raised expectations get lowered in big chunks in her hyperbole as the weekend progressed. How is it possible for the biggest opening in history to feel anything other than super? Well, start with expectation. Then watch as late night numbers and first day numbers are so huge that fairies are floating $200m domestic and $550m worldwide opening weekend dust in your eyes. Then see it fall back to $180m/$500m. Then see it become, realistically (and estimately) a still-record-breaking $169m/$475m. And suddenly, the potential to get to or close to $1.5b worldwide is fading and you start wondering if $1b is a lock (which it probably is).

The big challenge on Winnie The Pooh was making it clear that this was not a reissue of the decades old classic. But even with virtually nothing in the marketplace for under-8s, it didn’t take. This opening was lower than The Tigger Movie in 2000. Does it work out financially for Disney anyway? Well, Pooh is a mega-merchandising franchise, so you could argue that this keeps it fresh or you could argue that whatever licensing that’s done was going to be done without it anyway. I didn’t get to see the movie, but I enjoyed the soundtrack a lot.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon hits $300m at home and is now likely over the $800m mark worldwide (which would require holding just 50% of last weekend’s international gross).

In Indiewood, the per-screen heroes (writ small) were Undefeated, Tabloid, and Beats, Rhymes & Life, each between an estimated $6350 per sceeen and $6570. Beats was easily the most impressive of the trio, doing that per-screen across 22 screens. Tabloid, on 4 more screens than Undefeated (14), with a 27% higher gross, though Undefeated seems to have won the per-screen battle.

There was a bit of a fuss in here yesterday, as I noted that the Undefeated number was a bit underwhelming. And its supporters were correct in this regard… as a polemic that preaches to the converted, which liberals have made plenty of, the number is decent. Robert Greenwald, the lefty documentarian, hasn’t had a theatrical release in a while. But his anti-Murdoch doc, Outfoxed, did $77,982 on 5 screens for a $15,596 avg on opening weekend… and his last release, Uncovered: The War on Iraq opened to $31,481 on 7 screens, a $4,497 per screen. Undefeated is right in between. So you tell me.

95 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Aldus Klady”

  1. Michael. says:

    I don’t mind the new table – no harder to follow.

    So, what do we think of HP’s chances of getting to $400 million domestic? Is there much chance of it reaching $1.5 billion global?

  2. Eric says:

    Actual text is better than an image of text.

    You could improve it even further by underlining the header rows, then every fifth row down or so.

  3. JKill says:

    Searchlight is taking their sweet time in releasing TREE OF LIFE wide. It’s still hanging in there so they’re probably just being cautious, but I’m curious as to when they’re going to squeze the trigger.

  4. Anthony D says:

    I vote grid. Makes it pop out better. But see what the overall consensus is.

  5. mary says:

    It seems like that Disney finance “Winnie the Pooh” just to make Pixar and John Lasseter happy. I wish that “Winnie the Pooh” would do better, but looks like Disney will still make some profit on this film. Anyway, Disney will still make 2D animations (and release Hayao Miyazaki’s films) to keep Pixar and John Lasseter happy.

    I think that the opening of Sarah Palin’s “Undefeated” is so-so. Although many of Americans are conservative, most of them don’t like to frequently watch conservative films in theaters. (It is just like what happens to Christian films)
    http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,20277417,00.html

    The opening of “Snow Flower and the Secret Fan” is okay, even though the mostly mediocre reviews will stop this film from grossing much further. Anyway, Fox Searchlight are doing the best they can do on handling this train wreck from Wendi Murdoch. (leeson to filmmakers: please don’t try to adapt ‘sensitive’ stories to pass Mainland China’s censors again. )

    Sony Pictures Classics were clearly dumping “Life, Above All”. Still, it is sad that even Roger Ebert’s quote (on the poster) and NY Times’ strong review can’t save this film.
    Anyway, “Midnight In Paris” and “Beats Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest” would still keep Sony Pictures Classics happy.

  6. Krillian says:

    That per-screen average for Undefeated’s going to get crowed about.

  7. Tofu says:

    Potter will be lucky to earn $350 million, or to defeat Transformers 3. The Saturday drop was on the harsher side, and pointed to the series’ frontloaded nature.

    That said, 1.2 billion could be in play worldwide, making it the highest grossing picture not directed by James Cameron. :) WB will be plenty pleased with that result, along with once again regaining the OD record and maintaining the OW record.

  8. EthanG says:

    Records I haven’t seen being mentioned; Potter likely will extend its record as the biggest movie franchise worldwide of all-time until at least 2020.

    It is also about a week away from overtaking “Star Wars” as the biggest franchise of all-time domestically.

  9. Joe Leydon says:

    I wonder how many folks who post here will feel compelled to see The Undefeated just so they can answer the taunts of the film’s fans. That is, how many will want to offer an opinion without being shot down with some variation of, “Well, you liberal pinko, you haven’t even seen it, so you don’t know what you’re talking about.”

  10. LexG says:

    I’d go to see UNDEFEATED out of general curiosity combined with my “see everything” ethos… if I weren’t EMBARRASSED AS FUCK to ask for a ticket. Especially in a liberal, multicultural city like Los Angeles, who wants to go up to the ticket window and ask for a ticket for the Conservative Yahoo Movie? It’d be like when I wanted to rent “Towelhead” at Blockbuster then realized every clerk at the register was ethnic of some sort, and you’re gonna come jollying up to the front of the line looking like the fucking Grand Dragon with a stupid movie whose title is an ethnic slur (dumb-ass fucking Alan Ball.) Likewise, kind of hard to go up to a window like a cheery asshole and announce yourself as a TOTAL NEOCON by asking for “The Undefeated.” I imagine the ticket kid will hiss at you.

  11. movieman says:

    JKill- I’m really not expecting FS to ever take “Tree” much beyond its current screen count.
    Even more commercial-seeming FS titles in the past (e.g., “Cedar Rapids,” “Cyrus”) stalled out at around 700 screens.
    This weekend’s per-screen “Tree” average points to a definite ceiling for such a rarefied, definitely-not-for-emainstream-tastes kind of movie.
    That’s a pretty disappointing (limited) bow for “Tabloid” (virtually identical
    to the Palin hagiography, in fact).
    And I’m also surprised that “Project Nim” hasn’t really taken off. It got an unusual amount of (marketing) hype for a doc.

  12. yancyskancy says:

    Well, Lex, it’s not like they’re going to put your picture on a Wall of Shame, or follow you home and egg your windows or key your car. Are you just worried that every time you return to that theater, the minimum wage ticket kid will give you the stink-eye and say, “Oh it’s YOU. The right wing asshole”?

    If you’re that worried, just casually mention that you’d rather see something else, but you have to review UNDEFEATED for a new movie blog or something.

  13. JKill says:

    Movieman, you’re probably right. I’m going to get to see it theatrically since it’s scheduled to play at my local arthouses at the beginning of August, but it’s frustrating when a movie of this stature and with this much anticipation takes this long to come out. I’m not an expert but it seems to me there would be a missed opportunity in not releasing it wide because I would assume Pitt and Penn’s names on their own, regardless of the experimental nature of the movie, would be worth an extra 8 to 10 million in a wide release, at least. I don’t know what the trade-off in terms of P and A is, but it would seem like a good bet to me.

  14. LexG says:

    Tree of Life lasted one whole week at a big AMC (Burbank) in L.A. before being quickly shuffled off. Yeah, it’s still playing strongly at arthouses and in “upscale” spots, but it seemed like even that modest expansion within “city limits” to try and take it a little wider were met with a resounding bristle from non-rarefied cine-geek crowds.

  15. movieman says:

    I agree with, JKill. One of my major beefs with FS is their frequent timidity.
    (Something you can’t regularly accuse, say, Sony Classics of. Even when it seems to defy common sense.)
    Shoot for the fences–or put that damn gun away.
    Or something like that, lol.

  16. JS Partisan says:

    Tofu, the front-loaded nature of the series? All of these films have had legs. All of them. I guess we just have to wait til next year for a 200 million weekend because we all know everyone and their mother will be lining up around the block for Bats that weekend.

    Anyone else curious if Cap can even open #1 next weekend?

  17. Joe Leydon says:

    LexG: A few years ago, I planned to write a novel set in Germany between the world wars. Specifically, during a period from roughly 1927 to 1941. (Yeah, you guessed it: I was thinking about sequels, maybe an entire franchise.) So I set out to do a massive amount of research that entailed buying a lot of books. But here’s the thing: Almost any book about Germany during that period, fiction or nonfiction, has (a) Adolf Hitler, (b) a swastika or (c) both on the cover. Now imagine what happened every time I bought 4 or 5 books at a bookstore. Imagine the funny looks I would get from some check-out clerks. No one ever said anything, but it was pretty obvious from their expressions what they were thinking.

    Of course, as a friend told me, it could have been worse: I could have had a sales clerk tell me: “Oh, you’re interested in this. Well maybe you’d like to attend a political meeting with this group I know about…”

  18. movieman says:

    After five successful weeks at a Cleveland arthouse, “Tree” finally added a second screen this past weekend at a Cinemark megaplex.
    I’m curious to see how long it sticks around there surrounded by seven prints of “Harry Potter,” four (remaining) prints of “Transformers,” etc.
    In the meantime, it’s still going strong at the arthouse.

  19. henry says:

    I vote grid, but Eric’s points are valid.

  20. anghus says:

    it’s funny when you see people re-tweet stuff they read online as their own thoughts. From Joseph Kahn

    “Hugo lost Invention. John Carter lost Mars. If released now, marketing would have called Raiders of the Lost Ark “Indiana”.”

    Funny, but that one’s been floating around for awhile. Then again, i’m expecting originality from Joseph Kahn so perhaps my sights are set too high.

  21. Ray Pride says:

    It’s a pretty easy joke. Kahn may just have had a parallel inspiration for the bit rather than having seen it online.

  22. Geoff says:

    JS, sorry but it’s not likely The Dark Knight Rises will get a $200 million opening – remember, it’s opening just a couple of weeks after the return of Spiderman and it’s just going to have the Joker/Ledger buzz to back it up.

    Really, we’re talking lightning in a bottle here, folks – getting to as high as these movies do is still pretty fucking tough. We don’t have to keep raising the bar so high. Sorry, I don’t know nor did I read any one predicting Harry Potter was doing $170 million domestic this weekend. I actually see The Avengers launching summer next year as having the best shot if…..Captain America hits big next week and Paramount does a perfect mix of Iron Man/Thor/Hulk marketing and puts out enough sexy images of Hemsworth/Ruffalo/Renner to draw the chicks. Hate to admit it, but the next Twilight this November has an outside shot…eh, not likely, but each of them has opened bigger than I expected.

    Such an over-emphasis on opening weekend – the BIG movies over the next few years are launching over the holidays. Think about this:

    December 2012: The Hobbit: There and Back Again
    December 2013: The Hobbit: Frodo Gets Laid
    December 2014: Avatar: Return to Pandora
    December 2015: Avatar: Quarytch Becomes a Pure Spirit

    Four holiday movies, probably $6 billion between them. Message to other studios: stay the fuck out of December for the next few years unless you have a funny, nichey film starring Meryl Streep or Chipmunks!

  23. Jason says:

    I would love to see Apes and Cowboys open to $80M, but that’s the most optimistic numbers out there. Heck, I would think $80M could be total DM for both. Outside of a couple of surprises this summer, everything else has been rather middling. I’m not say $80M DM for them, but that kind of opening would give Studios the mother of all orgasims. I think around $150M DM for both would be about right and anything more would be a huge success.

    I hope one of them or Captain is a huge success. We need another $300M earner this summer to go with the big 2.

  24. David Poland says:

    If you take away the midnight shows, Potter’s Friday was $49m and the weekend was about $127m.

    Let’s assume a 60% drop, which would not be remotely shocking.

    That’s still a $51 million 3-day next weekend.

    Can Captain America beat that?

    It would be $14m behind Thor, which had the advantage of opening the summer.

    It would be $5m behind X-M:FC, which had new faces – as Cap does – but is part of an ongoing franchise, which Cap ain’t.

    Magic 8-ball says, “Unlikely.”

    If they can open Captain America to $50m, they should be THRILLED.

    If it opens to $40m, they should be comfortable with that.

    If it opens under $35m, sweaty.

    Under $30m, sad.

    Under $25m, suicidal.

  25. -60% for HP7.2 would be $68m, which is what I presume you meant to type.

  26. EthanG says:

    Uh…DP, you got into a massive argument with me and others about 3D “bumps” and how they dont matter a year or so ago. You were frothing at the mouth over it, so I don’t get the change…..

    How is taking 3D into account any different than inflation? It isn’t. You pick and choose subjectively based on how you feel. Based on attendance, this is the best Potter. It’s the worst Trannies. If you are going to base your narrative around SOME facts, I’d prefer all the facts out.

  27. J says:

    My local theater in NJ that’s showing ‘Tree of Life’ suggested last week that it had one more week left in its run there, so it may be at the point where they’re shuffling existing prints around.

  28. Eric says:

    I’ve been a bit surprised to see 3D bumps and inflation taken into the analysis in the last few months, too, after David seemed to dismiss those factors around the time of Avatar.

  29. JS Partisan says:

    David, seriously, thanks for answering that question. Geoff responds to me as if I am jerk but you actually took the time to respond to it, and I do appreciate it.

    Geoff, I have no idea what world you live in, but Ledger did not create the buzz for the Dark Knight. I know you don’t like the movie but if you don’t think it’s going to be HUGE then you really don’t get what Nolan means to people. It’s called Inception. Thank you and… oh… Emo Spider-man has nothing on the Nolan’s Batman franchise. Never has and never will.

    You also seem to live under the delusion that those Hobbit movies are going to matter. Sorry but as I have discovered, anyone in their 20s never saw those films or wanted to do so. These films only matter to 30 somethings and seeing as how the LOTR films have aged so horribly, outside of the highlight TWO TOWERS, expecting the Hobbit to make more bank than a Nolan Batman film is an utterly absurdest notion.

    Also, assuming anyone cares about Avatar after how it’s been revealed to be nothing more than smoke and mirrors is really a stretch.

    ETA: [waves hands frantically] Eric it didn’t happen! It didn’t happen!

  30. JKill says:

    “Sorry but as I have discovered, anyone in their 20s never saw those films or wanted to do so.”

    ?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?

    I would like to have your empirical evidence on this one, JSP. I’m confused because people in their thirties, who you say care, would have been in their twenties when the trilogy came out, and people now in their twenties would’ve been somewhere between ten and 19, which seem like ages that would be entirely up for these movies.

    Um, what are you talking about?

  31. LYT says:

    I support Obama, but there’s no way I’d pay to see an hour and a half documentary about how awesome he is at all times.

    A biopic down the line that includes highs and lows, sure.

  32. anghus says:

    you know, why we’re talking inflation and the 3D bump…

    we need to factor those into the numbers. we just have to. anyone who runs a website and claims to be a ‘journalist’ should run box office numbers with an inflationary measure thrown in. When discussing the biggest films of all time, inflation, the 3D bump, these things need to be factored in.

    Hell, i’m advocating we start showing reported box office by the studios with a final reporting number of what comes off the top to the exhibitors.

    Can you imagine what a studio would do if someone posted box office like this.

    Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows pt 2

    168.6 million
    – 40% to exhibitors.
    101.16 million for the 3 Day Weekend.

    And what if P&A started factoring into the budget?

    That would make something like Super 8 at a 100 million dollar budget as opposed to the 50 million they’re sticking to.

    Either way, if we’re not going to attempt to be honest about box office revenue, the least we can do is say something like this.

    “Midnight in Paris crossed 40 million to ‘technically’ become the highest Woody Allen grosser passing Hannah and Her Sisters. Adjusted for inflation, Hannah made around $78,000,000+ at the box office.”

    It’s basic fucking math. How come entertainment ‘reporters’ are so unwilling to accept basic economic principles?

    In 25 years if a reanimated Woody Allen makes a movie and it grosses 45 million dollars when the average ticket price is quadruple what it is now, are we really going to be sucking his zombie dick because it crosses some meaningless threshold where no one takes into account economics?

    baffling.

  33. JS Partisan says:

    Jk, I have met a lot of people in their 20s that simply ignored the LOTR movies but saw the HP movies. Seriously, outside of movie-going friends you know, ask random 20 somethings about the LOTR films. It shocked me that the generation you would think would be all about them, weren’t, but were all about Harry Potter.

    Anghus, the reason why they refuse to accept sound economic reasoning is because… it’s too hard to explain. You also have the whole thing where we just keep moving the yard stick and refuse to explain why we keep doing it. It just keeps moving and at some point, we are going to have to go to tickets sold out of sheer need to quantify all of this data. If not, it’s always just going to be a weird topic of discussion.

  34. Geoff says:

    Whoah, JS! How did I respond to you as a jerk? No need to take things so personally….

    I LOVE Nolan and will be there opening night for any movie of his and I will probably be more excited for a new Dark Knight movie than Avatar or Hobbit, but…..

    The Dark Knight had one of the most brilliantly executed marketing campaigns of recent years….Why So Serious, the early IMAX teaser with the bank robbery, definite good will from ‘Begins (still the better movie, IMHO) which was playing non-stop on HBO for two years. It was going to open hugely, no doubt.

    But you cannot dismiss the Ledger death and the media insanity about it for several months as a factor behind that opening….there’s just no way it didn’t play a factor. Did it add $10 million, $20 million, who knows? The Joker was the centerpiece of that campaign and he is probably one of the five most notable fictional villians ever…..just as he was the centerpiece for the first Batman movie. That ALONG was going to open the movie – add to that the fact that this well-known character is played by a hot, recently Oscar-nominated, young actor who died famously a few months earlier…..and that just added to the buzz.

    Now, that just opened the movie – the fact that it made more than $200 million more domestic than any other movie that even opened in the same ballpark recently (Spidey 3, Twilight 2) speaks to the apparent quality of the movie and the very strong word of mouth. I’m not disputing you: people went APE SHIT for that movie. Based on that, the next one will open huge. But to assume that lightning can strike again (Joker + Ledger’s death) is probably setting the bar too high. Let’s take a deep breath, here.

    And sorry, come on, now: people LOVED Avatar and the LOTR movies, who gives a fuck how they have aged, 3D surcharges, blah, blah, blah? Scrutinize the numbers, average age, dork-factor, whatever, those movies made their freaking mark and you can be believe allowing at least five years for the next chapter of each of those franchises is going to ensure mega-buzz for each follow-up(and probably a bit of a drop-off for the next one, maybe just Avatar – Hobbit is a unique entity; but from what I hear, nobody believes there is enough content in that book for two movies) unless their studios royally fuck up the ad campaigns.

    We’re just talking opening weekends, here. TDKR could out-open each of them, but if each of those four movies hit the sweet spot the week before Christmas 2012 through 2015, look out…..

  35. JKill says:

    JSP, I don’t know if it’s really an either/or thing. I do know people who prefer HP to LOTR, which is fine, but most people I know, the majority of whom are not movie geeks, have seen and liked both. I think they’re both examples of series that have broad appeal, but I don’t doubt you’ve seen/heard what you’ve seen/heard. I just don’t think they’re in a competition, and people aren’t partisan enough to swear off one fantasy movie because they have an allegiance or preference to another. In the three subsequent years when they both had entries out, neither seemed to be hurting.

  36. anghus says:

    its weird that Harry Potter and LOTR would be an either/or thing.

    Harry Potter is far more accessible to normal, non-fantasy people because it has one foot in the real world. LOTR does not.

    Justin Bieber taught me to never say never, but unless the rest of this year ends up in the critical toilet, does anyone see any awards for Harry Potter that doesn’t involve FX, Audio, or Editing?

    500 million worldwide in a week or not, is that enough to put it on a ballot in the major categories?

    I assume even mentioning ‘Harry Potter’ and ‘Academy Award’ in the same sentence sounds nuts, but we’re in the wake of a massive weekend and people do seem to be pushing that as a possibility.

    I think it’s not even a remote possibility…

  37. chris says:

    I don’t think you must have read too many predictions for “Deathly Hallows,” then, Geoff. Box Office Mojo — possibly the first place one would go for a prediction — was predicting that exact figure, $170 million.

  38. Aj says:

    To David Poland says:
    July 17, 2011 at 2:16 pm
    Wrong math, David. 168 – 43 = 125 million.
    If it fall 60%, it’ll make 50 million and still will be number one (I think).
    I don’t think Captain America will be a huge worldwide hit. 300 million at best.

  39. David Poland says:

    Wow, AJ… my brain damage seemed to kick in…

    Adjusting the comment above…

  40. David Poland says:

    Boys –

    I have never said to forget about 3D bumps. But I have said that sitting around – as Anghus suggests with some tongue in cheek, I think – parsing every variable, we are on a fool’s errand.

    I didn’t dismiss the 3D bump when Avatar was around. I wrote about it extensively. And it wildly outperformed the 3D bump.

    Potter is now the #1 opening, all-time. Dark Knight is #2.

    The issue of 3D and what it means to the box office, as a tool to inflate prices, is a significant issue. And when Thor performs domestically about the same as The Incredible Hulk, with the 3D bump taken into consideration, that is interesting. It shouldn’t be used to diminish Thor’s achievement. But I am interested in how and why this all works… and it does seem there is a class of films lately that have a significant base that shows up no matter what. The Marvel films seem to fit that. In the case of Iron Man, they found a wider audience. Not sure Thor really did. Will Captain America? Will Avengers?

    Many of the hyper-rationalizations about The Dark Knight failed to take that into account. It’s Batman. Whatever the box office opening heights of that time are, Batman movies are more likely to reach them (or exceed them) than not.

    Again… in terms of talking about what a movie grossed, historically, 3D bumps and adjusted grosses and ticket sales are STUPID when made such simplistic tools. For one thing, we don’t have the right info. Like I wrote last year, GWTW played at a much higher price than most other movies when it launched… there were premium prices more significant than the 3D bump. Distribution models have changed drastically over years. DVD and VHS changed the goals of distribution in the last 25 years, even more than Jaws and Star Wars widened distribution.

    I am very interested in whether Potter really expanded its audience much this weekend or whether it was heavy Must See, enabled by a LOT of screens, combined with the 3D bump. That’s an interesting conversation to me.

    But should it have an asterisk next to in when saying that it had “the biggest opening ever” because of 3D or ticket prices or adjusted grosses? NO.

    Does that make sense to you?

  41. Geoff says:

    Thanks for the scoop, Chris – I usually read predictions from Box Office Guru or Box Office Prophets, and I think both of theirs were significantly lower. I do check out ‘Mojo, but forget they do their own predictions.

    Interesting to talk about the Oscar buzz – ‘Potter would have a shot, I would think. Midnight in Paris seems to be the only surefire nominee at this point, though Tree of Life has a legit shot.

    You know, I can’t be the first one to think of this, but what about Bridesmaids? The reviews were stellar and it’s really achieved major hit status, at this point. Flatout raunch comedy doesn’t seem to have much of a shot, even with ten nominees – remember that buzz about Hangover a couple of years back?

    But this one DOES seem to have more of an aura of respectability about it – is it really any less respectable than The Kids Are Alright? I would have to think Kristen Wiig has an outside shot at Best Actress (hell, she’s gotta be guaranteed for the Golden Globe, at least) and maybe Melissa McCarthy, and definitely Original Screenplay. Why not??? It could carry the whole underdog comedy cache that Four Weddings & a Funeral and The Full Monty have ridden to Best Pic nominations. Of course…..both of those movies were British, makes a huge difference.

  42. Jason says:

    DP, is there really a 3D bump for Potter? I haven’t seen anything that said 3D offered a lot (compared to what the talk was on Transformers). (I concede that this cannot include Ebert – who hates 3D with every fiber of his being.) Plus, with some data showing 3D is wearing on consumers this summer. Just curious if a many are seeing Potter in 3D or 2D.

  43. sanj says:

    DP – you should write some sort of article in advanced about Avatar 2 3D numbers .

    also nobody writes about the poor people who can’t afford 3D tickets you know cause they have to spend 10 bucks on junkfood . those greedy theatres. only for rich folk and movie critics.

    all these comic book movies make 100 million regardless of reviews . maybe that’s why no DP/30 for any of them. they don’t need the promotion but not bad for the smaller actors in those movies. good theory.

  44. Steven Kaye says:

    So the last couple of weekends, Midnight in Paris had been trouncing Pirates, Panda, Thor and X-Men. This weekend it beat them again, but that was easy because they were showing on fewer screens. The big news this time is that it also trashed Green Lantern, Monte Carlo, Popper’s Penguins and Bridesmaids, landing in 10th place, with the 5th highest PTA on the list.

    And all this from just 704 theatres.

    But it gets better – on Saturday and Sunday it actually came 9th, ahead of Super 8, which was in DOUBLE the number of theatres!

    So now it’s officially Woody’s highest-grossing flick in North America. And before all you pussies whine about inflation and ticket prices and all that crap, even adjusted for inflation it’s still his most successful film outside of the 70s, with the exception of Hannah and her Sisters. Besides, when you take into account its brilliant overseas results it’s going to end up one of his biggest films ever, inflation or no inflation.

  45. JKill says:

    Forget inflation and ticket prices…

    MIDNIGHT IN PARIS owes everything to the 3-D bump.

  46. JS Partisan says:

    I am not sure nationally but here in town, Potter is playing on a ton of more 2D screens than 3D screens. I am not sure if that’s a national thing or not but if it is, there’s not that much of a 3D bump.

    Jkill, I know it’s weird but these kids seem to be all about Potter and never really got into LOTR. One being cooler than the other aside, I’ve had a hard time finding people who enjoy the LOTR films. Let alone people who have actually seen them. Which I find rather weird.

    Anghus, somehow LOTR got nominated three years in a row and won Oscars. I have no idea how the Academy justifies this stupidity in comparison to Potter or TDK. If Potter doesn’t get nominated again. I would hope they would at least honor the cast, producers, and directors. If not, it’s just another example of a bunch of old crows doing what old crows do… BAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! That’s the noise they make. Get it?

  47. anghus says:

    ok, a couple of things.

    first off, i liked Midnight in Paris. Probably my favorite movie of the year. So know this doesn’t come from any kind of bias of the film or filmmaker.

    second. pussies? seriously? you come in here every week to praise Midnight in Paris’ box office with one hand while virtually jerking off Woody with the other. And i’m the pussy?

    Welcome to America. Facts are less important than benchmarks and economics in the entertainment industry are purely subjective.

    So IO’s contends that using inflation as a modifier is too complicated for most people to understand. That i buy. People are generally stupid and trying to make them understand that 40 million in 1986 dollars is a lot more than 40 million in 2011 dollars may take more effort than it’s worth.

    But in a room full of educated people (some) and people who have followed the film industry for a number of years (most), why on Earth are we dumbing down the conversation in here?

    I don’t give a shit what the Today Show reports Monday morning or the spin of a studio accounting department. But to post on a blog full of people who not only understand the box office but the economics of inflation and declare us ‘pussies’ for having the gall to entertain the truth…. well, i don’t know what to say other than

    ‘go fuck yourself’.

    that felt good. stay tuned for more pussy bullshit from your friends at the hot blog.

  48. JS Partisan says:

    People aren’t stupid. It’s just a bullshit metric because of ticket prices constantly going up in price. Hell, how much have ticket prices gone up since the opening of this blog? 5 bucks easy right?

    Seriously, trying to explain the random bullshit of box office minutiae on a Monday Morning to people is just freaking impossible. Like I stated last year; INTERNATIONAL SHOULD BE A PART OF THE DISCUSSION NOW but we are still obsessed on domestic numbers, that constantly go up due to 3D or ticket hikes, and explaining this to people who love round numbers is sort of pointless.

  49. Monco says:

    Ledger did not add much if anything to TDK’s opening. I think but am not sure so correct me if I’m wrong, but all of Batman’s previous films set the opening weekend record when they were released. The only outlier is Batman Begins which had to deal withBatman and Robin potentially ruinign the franchise. BB corrected the course and everything followed: new batman movie, new opening record. Batman has always been an AAA franchise domestically.

    TDKR out opens Avatar 2 and The Hobbit domestically. It grosses more than the Hobbit domestically. The Hobbit wins international and worldwide. Avatar2 grosses more in every area: domestic, international and worldwide.

  50. actionman says:

    where are the reviews for Captain America? What’s the current tracking at?

    Tree has plaed in Hartford, CT for the last month. I’ve seen it five times now. Every time I see it there are at least 10 people in the theater (it was sold out once on its first weekend in town) and everyone is speechless by the end. Best art-movie ever made in my estimation.

  51. anghus says:

    Is Avatar 2 a reality? I’ve heard 2 sequels back to back but is Cameron going to spend 10 years making them? Are their dates? Is this in the near future?

  52. Hallick says:

    “So the last couple of weekends, Midnight in Paris had been trouncing Pirates, Panda, Thor and X-Men.”

    It’s also kicking the crap out of The Dark Knight, Terminator 2, Star Wars, and Carnal Knowledge! aMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAzing….

  53. hcat says:

    Begins did 50 million opening off a wens release so its tough to compare that to the other films but…

    I would argue that Ledger was a huge boon for Dark Knight, not because of his death which I think is given too much credit, but simply because of the unparreleled marketing job by Warners. Each of the four Batman films that broke the opening record were all sold on single lines “Wait until they Get Aload of ME” “Meow”, “Riddle Me This, Riddle Me That, Who’s afraid of the Big Black Bat” and “Why So Serious.” I know many like to argue that Batman is not a star driven franchise, but think of it as a guest star driven franchise. Its the images of the villians promising a wicked good time that creates the stir. No reason to believe that coming off the success of the Dark Knight a strong marketing campaign centered around Hatheway in a catsuit could not top this opening.

    As for inflation there are so many factors to take into regarding price fluctations, movie going behavior, home video windows.. etc. It is impossible to say that any movie released 20 years ago would gross X-amount today. Attendance is a vague calculation so things go by the only thing which is actually counted which is the money.

  54. Hallick says:

    “And before all you pussies whine about inflation and ticket prices and all that crap…”

    As far as the whining goes, you could’ve just wrote “FIRST!” and saved yourself a lot of typing there.

  55. Hallick says:

    Ledger’s presence in TDK earned my repeat business and a rare DVD purchase, so there.

  56. Hallick says:

    ARRRRRGGHH!If only Steven Kaye could somehow clone himself and get jobs at the ticket booth of every single theater showing “Midnight In Paris” right now so we lucky few could get piping hot minute-to-minute updates of EVERY SINGLE TICKET sold, how much they were sold for, whether the patrons paid with cash or credit, if Woody’s movie sold more tickets to LEFT-handers than Green Lantern, Monte Carlo and Horrible Bosses combined, etc.

    God! Why can’t you make that happen!?

  57. Hallick says:

    “Like I stated last year; INTERNATIONAL SHOULD BE A PART OF THE DISCUSSION NOW but we are still obsessed on domestic numbers, that constantly go up due to 3D or ticket hikes, and explaining this to people who love round numbers is sort of pointless.”

    American’s feel shitty enough about their country’s waning status as it is. You start trying to explain how a crappy in the US can be irrelevant because the worldwide market is able to more than make up for it, people’s heads will explode.

  58. palmtree says:

    It’s more than a bit absurd that LOTR somehow wasn’t enjoyed by prime movie goers (namely teenage boys). Each of those films outgrossed every Harry Potter film (save probably for this last one).

    But in IO’s screed, I do find solace in someone who equally thinks Two Towers is the best of the series. Almost no else thinks this when I think it’s obvious. Oh well, you can’t win them all.

  59. Nick Rogers says:

    FWIW re: “Tree of Life,” I saw it today at a Landmark theater in Indianapolis. It was prefaced by a long explanation of how it’s a “different” type of movie, so “you need to know that going in.” Despite that – at a freaking arthouse chain – four walkouts, two of them with a half-hour to go.

  60. Triple Option says:

    Dammit, anghus! I had started reading and then quickly shut off and skipped over someone’s post until you had reference it and then I had to go back and re-read to see what you were talking about. You owe me a shot of pitron to kill those damaged brain cells!

    Per JSP, I have been surprised at the number of people who have been either pro Potter or pro LoTR. In many cases, I’ve met people who like one series completely over the other. Plenty who like both but I would have expected more to say something like “Oh, well, I liked Potter IV more than LoTR 2 but LoTR3 I thought was better than Potter 1 & 6 but not 5…” It’s been more like I like “I like them both but Potter more.” Or LoTR more as a franchise but they don’t seem to break them down by title.

    One thing I think Ledger’s death did was it took the cynicism out of the hype of his role. It’s not uncommon to hear about stars getting really immersed with their character and others noticing a change in character over the course of the shoot. And then you go see the movie and it’s like “meh.” In this case, even if “he really turned into the joker” is too bs’y to be stomached as a potential contributor to the cause of his O’D’ing, it does offer proof that yeah, this guy really did go to some dark place or some dark place was brought out to be used in portraying this character. People do flock to the real.

    I guess it’s fair to speculate though it’s impossible to know if Ledger couldn’t have generated as much or more sales doing months of promo for the film. Some of my first posts here were speculating sight unseen that his would be a kind of character that women would really respond to like Wolverine.

    I was thinking before that DK Rises might not open to what TDK did but would have the potential to be leggier. But now, considering there’ll be another bump in ticket prices and I’m assuming they’ll shoot it in 3D, it could beat $155M. It’s got a high bar to clear in many aspects. I hope I don’t become nauseated by the pub & faux buzz.

  61. Mary says:

    The media is tagging the Sarah Palin flick The Undefeated as a conservative film or putting it in the same category as a religious film. Considering what she did to those Republicans in Alaska is far from conservative. On the other hand if the liberal mentality believes that prosperity or freedom are dirty words than they should just stay home and collect food stamps.

  62. film fanatic says:

    Steven Kaye: I asked this on the Friday thread, got buried in the Palin discussion, so I’ll ask again here:

    Please just sate my curiosity without having to reveal your identity: are you tangibly connected to Woody Allen in a professional capacity, or are you just a big fan spreading the gospel?

  63. LexG says:

    S-Kaye has been asked about this like 20 times. He’s like a Chucky-DeeZee-style case where he absolutely will not answer anything asked of him that he doesn’t want to address.

  64. JS Partisan says:

    Yeah because everyone who collects food stamps are pieces of shit. Reason #312 why REPCONS ARE ASSHOLES: THEY THINK PEOPLE SHOULD STARVE!

  65. Bridesmaids would certainly be in the running under the 10 nominees system. I’m more than a bit annoyed at the switch, as the last two years yielded a nice mix of quality populist pictures and more art-house critics-darling fare (plus a solid chunk of films released outside the last three months of the year). It was almost like the Academy was upset that POPULAR films that audiences and critics actually saw and enjoyed were actually being nominated beside the ‘preordained’ prestige pictures that were considered ‘more appropriate’ Oscar contenders. But, while Bridesmaids now has an uphill battle, it is pretty much a lock for a Best Original Screenplay nod, with continual Oscar chatter (by, among others, well, ME) pushing Kristen Wiig for Best Actress.

    As for the 3D bump/inflation/etc, it matters here because it was such a close call. Had Potter 7.2 made $175 million over the weekend, had it sold 23 million tickets, none of this would matter. But because it came in behind Spider-Man 3 and The Dark Knight both in terms of inflation and in terms of estimated tickets sold, the 3D bump becomes an issue, however important or trivial. Avatar so vastly outgrossed everything else in sight that the 3D bump was pretty much irrelevant (except perhaps to the extent that people saw it for the 3D, but that’s another story).

    As for The Dark Knight Rises (which won’t be in 3D btw), I know I’ve said this before, but The Dark Knight really was a perfect storm that probably won’t be replicated. As someone above said, the Batman series (from a marketing standpoint) is generally about who the villain is, and The Joker really can’t be topped by Bane. The Dark Knight Rises, like Batman Begins appears to be just ‘a Batman film’ without a marketable villain. The Dark Knight was THE Batman film with the defining antagonist at the core of its campaign.

    I also don’t get the whole Lord of the Rings vs. Harry Potter thing. Yes, Lord of the Rings had three great films, but Harry Potter had eight (!) very good films, which may or may not be a relative achievement. Point being, you can like LotR and Harry Potter, just like you can love Star Wars AND Star Trek, just like (incidentally) you can like Guy Ritchie’s Sherlock Holmes AND the BBC Sherlock series (wow, is my wife pissed that there were only three episodes…).

  66. The Big Perm says:

    Damn yo, Steven Kaye is like a badass! I imagine him and his homies rolling down the street, beatin da fuck out of people going to see so-called tougher movies like Fast Five! But Kaye knows how to throw DOWN!

    And in other news, it seems like IO just hangs out with 14 year olds.

    Oh yeah, and box office whatever something.

  67. David Poland says:

    Will all respect to the Bridesmaids love… not a chance in hell, Scott. It’s not an Academy kind of movie, anymore than Wedding Crashers or The Hangover. Just not reality.

    And the only lock in Original Screenplay right now is Midnight in Paris… long way to go.

  68. The Big Perm says:

    Hey, in regards to Harry Potter, I got forced to see that and it was okay, like they always are. But does anyone get bothered by the fact that Harry never manages to really do much? He’s always saved by somebody, or someone leaves a special curse that saves him, or he gets lucky.

    Like, in the end of this movie Harry literally defeats the bad guy because Voldermort was USING THE WRONG WAND! Well sheyit, good thing he didn’t take the time to go to Sears and get a better one!

  69. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Harry’s superpower is “Easily Manipulated”… it’s just that the good guys are usually better at it than the bad guys.

    😀

  70. SamLowry says:

    Most theaters won’t let you pay for tickets with food stamps.

  71. JS Partisan says:

    Perm, let it go and accept the NEW NORMAL.

    Scott, yeah the LOTR series has one great film. The Potter series has FIVE. Why the Potter films are so easily dismissed while the LOTR films get all of this love and praise while being nothing more than FAUX PRESTIGE films has continually been perplexing.

  72. film fanatic says:

    GREAT? Um…No.

    Mind you, I’m not hating; I think they did about as good a job as humanly possible adapting such a beloved franchise where fidelity and not disappointing the devoted fans is key. The HP franchise is a touchstone for the generation that grew up with the books and I’m not taking anything away from it. But I don’t think any of the individual installments could be called a “great” stand-on-its-own film, by any stretch of the imagination. The Cuaron is the most lyrically made of the series, but most of them are workmanlike “three star” pictures, IMHO (which is nothing to sneeze at, btw, especially in this day and age).

    (ADDENDUM: For the record, I couldn’t get through a single one of the LOTR pictures. No knock on Jackson, I respect the technique and reverence, but I could never get through the books, either. Just bored the shit out of me, and I invariably fell asleep during several attempts to watch the movies and give them a fair shake. I just had to resign myself to fact that I could not give a shit, period, and accept that it’s a genre I can’t get my head around AT ALL. I have same problem with GAME OF THRONES. Again, it’s more of an “it’s not you, it’s me” situation).

  73. The Big Perm says:

    Hey IO, how has no one you know seen the LOTR movies? You know on average, they made more than the Potters, even with increased ticket prices today.

    I agree with film fanatic…the Potters are good. But nowhere near great. I like them, they’re fine.

  74. JS Partisan says:

    Yeah they are GREAT and even with the HOBBIT, they will not come close to being the biggest franchise domestically and internationally. Sorry but come on, they are great, and Azkaban (not as bad as Return of the King and not that they are bad like say almost every horror movie made in the last 20 years, but compared to the rest of their respective series. They are both lacking) is just not that great. Once you bring up Azkaban… I zone right out.

    If you want lyrical. Go watch Order of the Phoenix. Once they get British directors. The Potter films literally never cease to be amazing films.

  75. MarkVH says:

    The Potter films on the whole never rise to “great” because they never reach for it. It’s just not what they’re interested in. Their chief concern is not pissing off people who loved the books, and you’ll never achieve greatness when your primary goal is to not piss people off. What they are is compulsively watchable approximations of a beloved book series that have some great moments sprinkled throughout but, for the most part, play it safe at every turn. Always as good as they need to be but never quite as good as they could be. The final film encapsulates this pretty much to a T.

    IO, If you honestly feel that the series has produced five great films, your bar for greatness is too low.

  76. bulldog68 says:

    I’ll say that while I liked both LoTR and HP, the DVD collection I own is LoTR. I guess because of the different directors over the entire course of HP, some of the tonal shifts felt a bit out of place. Also, while LoTR has been criticized for it’s many finales, I do agree with another poster that I wanted to spend a bit more time saying good bye to Harry, Ron and Hermoine than they allowed us to and that’s a compliment. Like having an old friend stay for one more drink just because you enjoy the company.

    I was also looking forward to the immediate aftermath of a life without Voldermort than a skip to twenty years later

    I did think that the final destruction of the ring held more of an emotional wallop for me than seeing the demise of Voldermort so LoTR has the bigger end pay off for me.

    But now that HP is concluded, I do plan on seeing all of them with my ten and eight year old daughters. And while this was not my Star Wars, I totally understand why it would be important for this generation that have invested ten years of their lives in this story. And I’m also grateful that it made this generation, even if for a moment, appreciate books as well, something that seemed to be dying. It’s heartening to know that the books were as eagerly as anticipated as the movies.

  77. The Big Perm says:

    Harry Potter isn’t the biggest franchise either, IO. That would probably be Batman.

  78. JS Partisan says:

    Perm, Ethan points this out in this very thread. Come on.

    Mark, I disagree with you in totality but if you don’t see the five British directed Harry Potter films as great. That’s your freaking problem. Why you assume that reflects on my taste because I see them for what they are and you see them for what you think they are, is once again not my problem.

  79. film fanatic says:

    Newell’s was awesome. Yates is a hack. That is all.

  80. All six Batman films – $2.6 billion worldwide
    The first seven Harry Potter films – $6.8 billion worldwide

    Only Star Wars ($4.4 billion) and James Bond comes anywhere near Harry Potter. If we had better worldwide numbers for the majority of the 23 007 films, I’m sure it would outgross Potter.

  81. yancyskancy says:

    I don’t know about “not a chance in hell” re BRIDESMAIDS’ Best Original Screenplay chances, but it probably is a really long shot. THE 40 YEAR OLD VIRGIN (a more apt comparison to me in this situation than WEDDING CRASHERS or THE HANGOVER) couldn’t get in, even with a WGA nod (though it may be worth noting that 40YOV wasn’t quite as ‘zeitgeisty’ and profitable as BRIDESMAIDS). Besides comedy’s continual also-ran status with the Academy, add the perception that a lot of the best stuff in Apatow’s films is improv. Still, if it ends up being a weak year for originals (as most years increasingly tend to be), it could squeak in there. I’d love to see Wiig nominated, but that’s a big hurdle. I guarantee you that category will end up with at least two totally meh performances that can’t compare to Wiig’s.

  82. Student007 says:

    The Undefeated is a must see. Whether you’re a democrat, an independent or a republican, just go see. Even though you may still disagree with Palin’s political views, you’ll know the truth about her background and how she beat the odds to get to where she is today. It was pretty neat and inspiring. Our group enjoyed it.

    Lex, stop being a sissy and go see it. A group of my friends and I went; it was fine. You’re embarrassed from the cashier boy staring you down? dude, that’s pathetic.

  83. The Big Perm says:

    Yeah but Scott…back in 1989 Batman had a 40 million dollar opening which BLEW PEOPLE’S MINDS. Remember those good old days? Now that 40 million would be what, 150 mil? I have no idea. Inflation, baby, I count it even if DP doesn’t. And don’t worry, I’m sure there will be more Batmans that will make Potter money or more.

    But just think, in 100 years when tickets cost one million dollars each, and they remake the Evil Dead movies again…even though only a few thousand will see them, they will be bigger than Harry Potter in worldwide box office.

  84. palmtree says:

    Azkaban was the best Potter film…it has the best score, the last one by John Williams and one filled with endless delights. After he left, so did my general interest in the films. I saw 7.2 and thought Alexandre Desplat did a reasonably good job, but wished it could have been John Williams magic.

  85. Pete B says:

    “…I see them for what they are and you see them for what you think they are….”

    Wow, that is the greatest argument of all time. You just can’t reason with that logic. I’m waiting for both sides of the budget talks to break that gem out. Wheeee!

  86. Joe Leydon says:

    Well, OK, if we’re gonna factor in inflation, then maybe Universal Pictures’ Frankenstein franchise of the 1930s and 40s made more money than the Harry Potter series. And how about the Johnny Weissmuller Tarzan movies? And… And… Godzilla!!!!!!!!

  87. bulldog68 says:

    When looking at the size of franchises some weight has to be given to how much movies have beem released in the franchise. So based on averages, here’s the top 10 according to Mojo, and I have not included the Transformers movie that made $5M back in 1989, because I don’t think it counts toward this current franchise. Also all the franchises here have had 3 or more films, so no Iron Man.

    1) Spiderman $371M
    2) Transformers $341M and counting
    3) Pirates $318M and counting
    4) Shrek $317
    5) Star Wars $274
    6) Harry Potter $272 Should pass Star Wars soon.
    7) LoTR $265
    8) Twilight $263
    9) Jurassic Park $255
    10) Indianna $226

    Batman is at $207 thus far.

  88. bulldog68 says:

    Please note the smiley face next to Twilight was purely unintentional. It’s the one franchise listed here that I can’t stand.

  89. LexG says:

    TWILIGHT RULES ALL. You will BOW TO IT.

  90. bulldog68 says:

    Also, based upon what I did with Transformers, I should have done the same for LoTR, and this franchise would average out to $343M, putting them temporarily in 2nd place until Transformers eventually passes them.

  91. jennab says:

    Saw HP 7.2 Sunday evening, nearly sold-out house, unheard of in our smaller market (we almost NEVER have to buy advance tickets to anything, and we have not only a nice, larger stadium-type theater but also a really well-programmed arthouse multi-plex, but I digress).

    There was a lot I loved about the pic (I think Fiennes was amazing), but it did not pack the emotional wallop I was hoping for; still, re: legs on this one, my son saw it Saturday and is already seeing it again today. He didn’t love love love it (like he did Horrible Bosses), but if friends want to go, he’ll say, “Yeah, it was good, let’s go…” as opposed to “Nah, it was crap, let’s see something else.”

    I will probably see it again, too…therefore, I believe drop will be less than predicted. In fact, I think a lot of folks avoided opening weekend on this one due to the carmagedden-esque nature of the pursuit.

    Thought the DK Rises teaser was AWFUL, I mean nearly as cringe-inducing as Abduction…John Singleton directed this? Seriously?

    @ Mary, re: Pooh, I saw the trailer with Cars 2 and was absolutely enchanted; if I could find some little kid to take, I would. Plus, you can never, ever evaluate Disney/Pixar animated flicks based on theatrical revenue alone…they are almost loss-leaders for every subsequent channel, mostly parks and merchandising.

  92. JS Partisan says:

    If you think Yates is a hack. You are just a no-nothing Azkaban fan :P!

  93. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Newell was terrible. Seriously, Goblet of Fire is a full on abomination.

    I have spoken, it must be true!

  94. Steven Kaye says:

    $76.3 million worldwide!

    And check out Uruguay – MiP was in 2nd place over the weekend, just behind Hairy Pothead, with the 2nd highest PTA ($7,494).

    Overall, it’s amazing how emphatically Latinos have embraced this film. It’s made $1.6 million in Argentina after 3 weekends (VCB made $772,000 in total there), $6.1 million in Brazil ($2.5 million for VCB) and $9.8 million in Spain (and has become just the 10th film to rack up over 1,000,000 admissions this year in that country).

    Fantastic!

  95. cadavra says:

    Y’know, I haven’t brought up the LOST SKELETON movies lately…

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Dear Irene Cho, I will miss your energy and passion; your optimism and joy; your kindness towards friends, colleagues, strangers, struggling filmmakers, or anyone who randomly crossed your path and needed a hand. My brothers and I have long considered you another sibling in our family. Our holiday photos – both western and eastern – have you among all the cousins, in-laws, and kids… in the snow, sun, opening presents, at large dinner gatherings, playing Monopoly, breaking out pomegranate seeds and teaching us all how to dance Gangnam style. Your friendship and loyalty meant a great deal to me: you were the loudest cheerleader when I experienced victories and you were always ready with sushi when I had disappointments. You had endless crazy ideas which always seemed impossible but you would will them into existence. (Like that time you called me and suggested that we host a brunch for newly elected mayor of LA, Eric Garcetti because “he is going to president one day.” We didn’t have enough time or funding, of course, only your desire to do it. So you did, and I followed.) You created The Daily Buzz from nothing and it survived on your steam in spite of many setbacks because you believed in a platform for emerging filmmakers from all nations. Most of all, you were a wonderful mother to your son, Ethan, a devoted wife to your husband, and a wonderful sibling and daughter to your family. We will all miss how your wonderful smile and energy lit up the room and our lives. Rest in peace, Irene.
~ Rose Kuo Remembers Irene Cho on Facebook

“You know, I was never a critic. I never considered myself as a film critic. I started doing short films, writing screenplays and then for awhile, for a few years I wrote some film theory, including some film criticism because I had to, but I was never… I never had the desire to be a film critic. I never envisioned myself as a film critic, but I did that at a period of my life when I thought I kind of needed to understand things about cinema, understand things about film theory, understand the world map of cinema, and writing about movies gave me that, and also the opportunity to meet filmmakers I admired.

“To me, it was the best possible film school. The way it changed my perspective I suppose is that I believe in this connection between theory and practice. I think that you also make movies with ideas and you need to have ideas about filmmaking to achieve whatever you’re trying to achieve through your movies, but then I started making features in 1986 — a while ago — and I left all that behind.

“For the last three decades I’ve been making movies, I’ve been living, I’ve been observing the world. You become a different person, so basically my perspective on the world in general is very different and I hope that with every movie I make a step forward. I kind of hope I’m a better person, and hopefully a better filmmaker and hopefully try to… It’s very hard for me to go back to a different time when I would have different values in my relationship to filmmaking. I had a stiffer notion of cinema.”
~ Olivier Assayas