MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Report, June 12, 2011

Format Challenged
By Leonard Klady

The debut of Super 8 _ the spooky, peek-a-boo thriller _ topped weekend movie sales with an estimated $36.1 million. In what’s been a generally flatish marketplace the only other national bow was the kid lit favorite Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer that ranked seventh in the lineup with $6.2 million.

The session also featured largely modest to dismal results for a raft of exclusive debuts ranging from the touted Norwegian chiller Trollhunter (with marked similarities to Super 8) that’s already been scooped up for a U.S. remake to cult favorite Monte Hellman’s first feature in 11 years Road to Nowhere. The sole exception was the award winning Brit comedy The Trip that grossed $74,800 from an initial six engagements.

Overall box office reached about $142 million to register a 12% decline from last weekend. It was also off 7% from 2011 when debuts of The Karate Kid and The A-Team topped the charts with respective openings of $55.7 million and $25.7 million.

Super 8 received close scrutiny for its fierce determination to keep its plot under wraps and whether that tactic would translate into boffo box office. Tracking suggested just an OK bow between $35 million and $40 million. And its Thursday midnight sneaks of roughly $1 million were viewed as disappointing.

Studio exit polls indicated a not unexpected male skew of 54% but a worrisome 71% attendance by plus 25s. To great amazement the core audience appears to be an older crowd nostalgic (the film unfolds in 1979) for a bygone chill experience. Well into the summer season all claims that seasonal fare would bring back the eroding younger avid folk seem to be going up in smoke. The final acid test of the assertion comes in a couple of weeks with the launch of the third installment of the not terribly wistful Transformers.

Next weekend’s bow of The Green Lantern also poses a series of intriguing prospects. Certainly the most aggressively marketed of summer pictures to date, the character has a legion of older fans who remember him in his original incarnation. Additionally the rebooted noble avenger is DC Comics’ current most popular seller.

Judy Moody was also on the low end of tracking estimates that rose as high as $7 million. However, its demos reflected its essential appeal with 88% of ticket buyers classified as families and between kids and parents it was dominated by the fairer sex (78%).

The dominance of industry identified older viewers (they got the bucks) provided a big boost for Midnight in Paris that expanded into wide release, charted in the top 10 and maintained a sturdy per screen average. Slow expansions also appear to be working for both The Tree of Life and Beginners though their prospects for wide exposure appear less assured.

Weekend (estimates) June 10 – 12, 2011
Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
Super 8 Par 36.1 (10,690) NEW 3379 37.1
X-Men: First Class Fox 25.3 (6,860) -54% 3692 99.2
The Hangover Part II WB 18.2 (5,000) -42% 3644 216.3
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par 16.6 (4,220) -31% 3929 126.9
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV 10.9 (3,170) -39% 3433 208.8
Bridesmaids Uni 10.1 (3,460) -16% 2922 123.9
Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer Relativity 6.2 (2,460) NEW 2524 6.2
Midnight in Paris Sony Classics 6.0 (6,390) 118% 944 14.1
Thor Par Intl 2.3 (1,310) -45% 1782 173.7
Fast Five Uni 1.7 (1,264) -47% 1329 205.1
The Tree of Life Fox Searchlight .86 (18,300) 39% 47 2.4
Rio Fox .67 (1,270) -9% 527 137.8
Jumping the Broom Sony .52 (1,420) -39% 365 36.8
Water for Elephants Fox .48 (1,030) -31% 466 56.6
Something Borrowed WB .43 (1,170) -49% 366 37.6
Soul Surfer Sony .32 (1,060) 58% 303 42.2
Beginners Focus .25 (13,210) 78% 19 0.46
The Cave of Forgotten Dreams IFC .23 (1,900) -33% 122 3.7
Ready Eros .21 (2,260) -55% 92 0.8
Born to Be Wild WB .20 (4,190) 9% 47 6.7
Rango Par .17 (780) -28% 220 122.5
Source Code Summit .16 (660) -30% 248 54.2
Also debuting/expanding
The Trip IFC 74,800 (12,430) 6 0.07
Submarine Weinstein Co. 59,600 (3,500) 42% 17 0.12
Bride Flight Music Box 54,300 (2,720) 20 0.05
Viva Riva Music Box 9,700 (3,230) 3 0.01
Cell 213 Cinesavvy 7,900 (1,130) 7 0.01
Trollhunter Magnolia 5,500 (5,500) 1 0.01
Just Like Us Cross Cultural 5,400 (1,800) 3 0.01
Aaranya Kaandam Capital 3,900 (1,300) 3 0.01
Road to Nowhere Monterey Media 2,200 (1,100) 2 0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – June 9, 2011)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Paramount (11) 703.2 16.70%
Universal (11) 684.2 16.30%
Warner Bros. (17) 557.4 13.20%
Sony (13) 484.1 11.50%
Buena Vista (9) 483.7 11.50%
Fox (9) 407.1 9.70%
Weinstein Co. (6) 183.2 4.40%
Lions Gate (9) 116.9 2.80%
Relativity (4) 110.7 2.60%
Fox Searchlight (6) 93.1 2.20%
Focus (5) 72.1 1.70%
Summit (5) 67.3 1.60%
CBS (3) 57.6 1.40%
Film District (10) 53.1 1.30%
Sony Classics (9) 24.8 0.60%
Roadside Attractions (7) 20.7 0.50%
Other * (158) 87.4 2.10%
3981 100%
* none greater than 0.45%
Top Global Grossers * (Jan. 1 – June 9, 2011)
Title Distributor Gross
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV 835,274,238
Fast Five Uni 574,595,702
Rio Fox 462,124,345
Thor Par 429,491,192
The King’s Speech * Weinstein/Film Nation 407,663,243
The Hangover 2 WB 363,497,220
Tangled * BV 296,111,919
Black Swan * Fox 280,899,909
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par 255,884,083
Rango Par 241,784,383
The Green Hornet Sony 227,890,916
Just Go With It Sony 214,958,175
Battle: Los Angeles Sony 202,572,689
Gnomeo and Juliet BV/eOne; Pathe 192,769,142
Gulliver’s Travels * Fox 192,572,601
Tron: Legacy BV 186,746,403
The Tourist * Sony/GK Films 183,797,956
True Grit * Par 180,628,419
Hop Uni 173,973,695
Little Fockers * Uni 176,865,531
X-Men: First Class Fox 154,955,635
Yogi Bear * WB 149,169,140
No Strings Attached Par 148,208,266
Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of Dawn Treader Fox 145,619,772
I Am Number 4 BV 144,764,470
Limitless Relativity/Lions Gate 144,551,713

One Response to “Weekend Report, June 12, 2011”

  1. Markus says:

    I know that you source your numbers differently from rentrak and get to see numbers for movie distributors don’t bother with but how did you miss the Telugu movie Bhadrinath. It opened in like 25 screens and yet you track the low-rent Tamil picture, Aaranya Kandam on 3 screens?

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Guardians of the Galaxy 3.8 3462 -21% 262.1
As Above/So Below 3.2 2640 NEW 3.2
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2.7 3543 -41% 153.3
If I Stay 2.6 3003 -62% 23.1
The November Man 2.2 2776 NEW 3.9
Let's Be Cops 2 3010 -39% 51.1
When the Game Stands Tall 1.4 2673 -52% 12.1
The Giver 1.3 2805 -37% 27.6
The Hundred-Foot Journey 1.1 1918 -30% 35.9
The Expendables 3 0.85 2564 -55% 30.5
Also Debuting
Cantinflas 0.81 382
Ghostbusters - 30th Anniversary 0.49 784
Rabhasa 0.1 86
Double Di Trouble 38,300 33
Life of Crime 30,600 35
Kundo: Age of Rampant 28,900 26
Swearnet 28,300 88
Raja Natwarlal 22,100 74
Peruchazhi 14,100 13
The Congress 7,560 13
The Last of Robin Hood 7,100 2
Starred Up 2,900 2
Temporary Family 2,800 5
Through a Lens Darkly 2,750 1
Road to Ninja: Naruto the Movie 2,700 7
Last Weekend 1,350 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office