By David Poland email@example.com
Hangover At Midnight
I’m loading up with another look at summer today, but in the meanwhile, I though I’d note the reported $10.4 million 12:01a launch of The Hangover, Part II.
Besides setting a record for R-rated Midnight launches, the number suggests that the Thursday opening will surely break the $20m mark and could even hit $30m. Even at $20m, it would be the #5 Thursday opening of all-time, after 2 Star Wars, a Matrix, and Indiana Jones 4.
Of course, there are studios out there who would try to spin a $10.4m Midnight launch as underperforming. This would be obvious spin.
All this said, Hangover is still not a lock to win the 5-day weekend vs Panda 2, though it’s looking pretty good. Both films are looking to step up in class, with Panda 1 having opened to a $60 million 3-day and Hangover 1 having opened to $45m. Both films are also moving from the first week of June in their previous incarnations to the Memorial Day power slot.
There is something a little creepy about looking back at Summer 2003, when both Matrix Reloaded and Finding Nemo, R-rated and animated predecessors to this weekend’s new combatants launched. Also opening that summer were a Pirates, an X-Men, and A Fast/Furious film. Deja vu all over again. Also that summer, the only comedy that The Hangover couldn’t top… on Memorial Day Weekend… Bruce Almighty.
The only $100m 5-day openings for animation are two Shreks and Toy Story 3, all over $128m in 5. Do we think KFP is now in that class? No. Next on the list is $84m in 5 for Finding Nemo. Given frontloading as sequelitis, KFP2 could beat that number. But $100m would be a new landmark.
$100m in 5 for The Hangover, Part Ii seems assured now. The question is, how high will it go? Indy 4 is really the only film with a 5 day that took advantage of both opening a day early and having Memorial Day Monday on the other end. $152 million in 5. $127m, Fri-Mon. There are only three films to do a Memorial Day 4-day of over $90.2 million… Pirates, 2, Indy 4, and X3. Bruce Almighty did $85m in 4 in 2003.
I like Hangover 2 to just beat Bruce with $89m in 4… and $114m in 5… which btw, is within $4m of my guess for the film’s open that I made 3+ weeks ago. I also predicted an $85m launch for Panda 2 back then… and while it might be a smidgen low… feels pretty close still.