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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

4 Day Estimates by Wolfpack Klady

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Fallacy first… the idea that this is some kind of bad number for Kung Fu Panda is silly. It’s the biggest Memorial Day opening for an animated film, about a million over Madagascar. Were you hoping it would break that record AND show a 25% 3D bump? Okay. But that isn’t really reasonable. Memorial Day Weekend is not a great animation weekend, which is why so many of the big summer animated openings are the week AFTER Memorial Day.

Animated grosses are about the multiple. Panda has 3 more weekends until Cars 2.

Hangover 2 shows the power of a well loved original, whip smart marketing, and sequels. ‘Nuff said. Let the record show that this idiot estimated a $110 million launch before it came on tracking.

Pirates 4’s drop was… not good… not hideous. International saves Disney’s bacon.

Another strong hold for Bridesmaids, even against The Hangover. Remember when movies got roll over business from sell outs? Not so much anymore. Bridesmaids deserves credit for strong word of mouth.

And Thor is still swinging, so far the 3D success story of the domestic summer.

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45 Responses to “4 Day Estimates by Wolfpack Klady”

  1. Peter says:

    That’s a monster number for The Hangover Part II. Not sure how well it will hold, the word of mouth isn’t too great. Very nice hold from Bridesmaid 200 mil domestic perhaps?

  2. LexG says:

    Hangover Part II is one of the best sequels ever made and one of the best movies of 2011. It has terrific word of mouth. It is HUMAN PERFECTION.

  3. Puhlease says:

    The word of mouth on Hangover Part II is great. It has an A- cinema score (and an A+ with those under 18).

    If the word on it was bad (not talking critics) you would have seen steep drops on Sat and Sun.

  4. LYT says:

    Maybe it’s because I barely remember Hangover 1, but I liked the sequel a lot more. I laughed more, and felt like it had constantly escalating tension rather than a series of vignettes.

    SPOILER

    I would have liked if the missing character had, this time, actually been tied directly to the other plot events, but I did like that they checked the roof first.

    And Ken Jeong is still NOT FUNNY. How does this guy get so much work? Does he just take get all the roles Bai Ling turns down for “screaming Asian bitch”?

  5. Jason says:

    So word on Hangover is good? Then we should expect a decent hold and this film should get to $300 domestically. Regarding Pirates, could it struggle to get past $250 domestically? Obviously foreign is going to make this a big win, but I would imagine execs were hoping this would have $300 domestically just by greenlighting. As successful as Thor is, will it pass Fast Five? Fast Five’s success is one of the shockers of the year.

  6. NickF says:

    I’m sure the split on Pirates is too far in international for Disney’s liking. Even if they make another one, it’s only going to be harder to sell to the domestic crowd.

  7. Geoff says:

    I saw Hangover II last night with a packed audience that was juiced for a good time and there were MAYBE three or four big laughs and a genuine discomfort towards the end – honestly, this movie plays more like some pitch-black comedy series on F/X or Showtime than an audience pleaser. I have a feeling it’s going to barely squeak over $220 million which is still a genuine triumph for a comedy sequel and a movie that cost $80 million. I admired more it than actually enjoying it.

    Lex, you’re off on this one, sorry. Yes, the movie is good-looking – wow, I can’t believe how many folks are giving it a pass because of that! It looks great, as if Tony Scott made a raunchy ensemble comedy. Only problem is….has Tony Scott ever made a truly funny balls-out comedy? And I’m saying this while watching Beverly Hills Cop II – Eddie at his peak, big exception there.

    I mean sure, it gets real old watching crappy-looking comedies from the likes of Kevin Smith (pre Zack and Miri) and Andy Tennant (with the exception of Hitch). But sorry, these movies STILL have to be funny – this movie had a smattering of good laughs, I was quite disappointed. And the comparisons to Bridesmaids are not going to help…..that movie has more laughs in just the two jewelry store scenes with Kristin Wiig than the ENTIRETY of this whole film.

    WIIG POWER!

    Honestly, what are studios like Dreamworks thinking when they open up a Kung Fu Panda sequel on a weekend with another big sequel? Remember when Memorial Day Weekend used to be about ONE big movie? And remember when it was a four-quadrant family adventure? Recent years have seen Terminator against ‘Musuem and ‘Persia vs. S&TC2 – just silly. Indiana Jones, Star Wars, THOSE should be the type of film opening up on Memorial Day Weekend! Not the weekend before and not three weeks before…..best film for this summer to open up that weeekend would have been Captain America.

  8. LexG says:

    Hangover II is funny nonstop from beginning to end. Funnier than Bridesmaids (which I liked a lot)… Every second of H2 is PURE GENIUS and the hardest I’ve laughed since My Best Friend’s Girl. PURE. GENIUS.

    Also LOOK AT THE GIANT BUILDINGS and CITYSCAPES, aka the most exciting thing ever.

    Bradley Cooper = LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOK AT HIM!!!!!

  9. Well says:

    LexG:

    My Best Friend’s Girl. Incredible.

    Puhlease:

    Wrong. Sequel weekends are written in stone. There’s no precedent for a drop from Friday to Saturday or Sunday based on word of mouth. Even when a movie is hated or people find it disappointing. Did anyone like Spider-Man 3?

  10. LexG says:

    Funny as FUCK when Cooper tries to steal the script pad and Helms is all “Was that directly touching your scrotum?” HAHAHAHAHAHAHA FUNNIEST MOVIE EVER.

    Then when they go to iHop.

    Also the dude who played Samir was funny as FUCKING HELL. And the tranny HAHAHAHAHAHAHA “your sperms” HAHAHAHAHA BEST MOVIE EVER.

    Wish I had a friend as cool as Phil. Happiest two hours of my 2011.

  11. Geoff says:

    Lex, you just quoted ONE of the FOUR big laughs in the movie. Yes, Bradley Cooper is good-looking. we get that you have a man-crush on him. But unlike Paul Rudd (who I can admit to having had a man-crush on), Cooper is just not very funny. He was actually better as Face in A Team than he was in either of the Hangover movies.

    I’m sorry, this would be an easy competition – run down a list of big laughs throughout Bridesmaids and Hangover II and you have a blowout for the ‘Maids on the scale of the last Presidential election. Hell, Melissa McCarthy has more laughs in Bridesmaids than Zach G in Hangover II – it’s no contest!

    RUDD POWER and WIIG POWER – pair them up in a comedy together and the universe might explode. 🙂

    (And yeah, I really was not that jazzed about Dinner for Schmucks OR How Do You Know – 2010 was just an off-year for Mr. Rudd)

  12. LexG says:

    Did I say this here the other day, or somewhere else? I think it was on another blog but if not, apologies for the repeat material:

    The reason why BRADLEY COOPER (aka GOD) is the funniest thing ever in the Hangovers is he is the guy “we” all wish we could be, all hostile and aggressive and the ringleader who runs shit and stays like an edgy Bruce Willis action movie hero throughout all the antics. He’s the guy we all want to be, like TIM MATHESON IN UP THE CREEK or Burt in Stroker Ace. Unfortunately 99% of us are more like Helms.

    Plus his hair is fascinating.

    Getting a little sick of Jamie Chung though. This is SERIOUSLY like Khloe Kardashian scoring A-list movie roles; Has she surpassed Jacinda Barrett as the cheeseball reality show vet (Real World: San Diego) to have the most successful, how-did-THAT-happen? “acting” career?

  13. Kung Fu Panda 2 did the same thing as Ice Age 3. It replicated the opening weekend gross of the previous film, but it just did it over the extra days provided in a longer weekend. Kung Fu Panda did $60m in 3 days while Kung Fu Panda 2 did $68m in 5 days. Ice Age 2 did $68m in 3 days while Ice Age 3 did $66m in five days. Ice Age 3 did almost identical domestic numbers to Ice Age 2, so theoretically the same will hold true for Kung Fu Panda 2. As for Hangover 2, it played shockingly consistent throughout the weekend, with a 4.4x five-day weekend multiplier (it opened with $31m and averaged $27m per day). So, for the first five days, it wasn’t the least bit front-loaded. Considering the lack of competition, it’s quite likely that Hangover 2 will join the $300m club.

    As for the whole 3D situation, the solution seems to be pretty simple. Just make it 50/50 for 3D movies. That way those who want 3D have that option while those who don’t get their 2D showing too. That way, you may lose a few bucks per ticket by giving them a 2D option, but you won’t lose the whole $10-15 when that moviegoer can’t find a 2D showing and stays home. An even split is the best case scenario for the longterm survival of 3D. Make it 3D or nothing, and many general moviegoers will wait for DVD. I love how the studios are crowing about ‘giving audiences choices in how to watch’, but are allegedly freaking out now that theatrical audiences are CHOOSING 2D over 3D in certain cases. It’s like certain right-wingers, who love states’ rights and individual liberty except when individuals or states try to make choices outside their moral code (IE – gay marriage, stricter gun control, etc).

  14. anghus says:

    i liked Hangover 2 better than Hangover. I don’t understand how anyone doesn’t find Ken Jeong not funny. The scene in the elevator when he’s singing “time in a bottle” and his exchange with Bradley Cooper, i was laughing hysterically.

    And Bradley Cooper isn’t supposed to be funny. Zach G is a clown. Ed Helms is the consistently frazzled guy. Cooper is supposed to be the average married guy desperate for some thrills. He’s the straight man. What do you expect him to do?

  15. movielocke says:

    I thought KFP2 would have a higher number based solely on the shrek 2 bounce, I didn’t expect that big of a monster increase, but I figured it would improve more relative to the first film.

  16. LYT says:

    Ken Jeong is basically like one of those Trade Federation guys from The Phantom Menace on cocaine.

  17. movieman says:

    Geoff- Wouldn’t the (red, white and blue) 4th of July weekend be more up “Captain America”‘s ally?
    And Lex: I’m disappointed in you. I definitely would have pegged you for a Jacinda Barrett fan. And with good reason.
    Barrett is not only a looker, but she can really act (“Last Kiss,” “Ladder 49”): “Real World” roots and all.
    Kind of surprised she doesn’t get more work.

  18. KY says:

    Bradley Cooper is so Fine! I would love to be his beard.

  19. LexG says:

    Movieman…

    Oh, to clarify, I am– or was; she doesn’t work much lately– a pretty big Jacinda fan, going back to RW. I’d also add “The Human Stain,” and not just because of the extensive nudity. Pretty good for a Real Worlder, delivering a more believable performance than Anthony Hopkins OR Nicole Kidman. I guess my quotes around “acting” made it sound like I was dismissing JB, but that was more aimed at Jamie Chung, who was a TOTAL nonentity on RW and doesn’t seem to be able to act much, either, combined with a surprise at “How the hell does someone from The Real World get A list acting work???” in general.

    Heh, totally forgot Barrett was in a movie I actually liked last year– “Middle Men,” in which Luke Wilson leaves her for ANOTHER reality “personality” turned actress, Lauren Ramsay of “The Real Cancun.”

  20. sanj says:

    Lex G –

    Jamie Chung
    “career without talent”

    http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1512166/board/thread/137779037

    so is she worthy of a DP/30 ? i get a strong feeling reality tv show people aren’t even allowed to do a DP/30
    unless it’s a Disney based reality show.

    i’d like to see a list from DP about which actors
    just got lucky or famous .. and aren’t “real” actors .

  21. LexG says:

    I wouldn’t mind giving Jamie Chung a DP/5 if you know what I mean.

  22. movieman says:

    I’m relieved, Lex.
    Thought you might be dissing Barrett who I’ve been a fan of since…well, probably “The Real World.”
    Always respected her for seeming to be above all of the phony, made-up drama that infects virtually every “cast member” of that show.
    She definitely deserves to be getting more work in H’wood films. Or else a steady gig on a quality tube series (say, HBO or AMC).

  23. David Poland says:

    Why does “a DP/5” sound like some sort of joke about – as Randy Newman has put it – my mighty sword… though I assume Lex meant it as a joke on his own?

  24. LYT says:

    “DP” can stand for things other than “David Poland,” in certain sub-strains of cinema…

  25. Tuck Pendelton says:

    Geoff,

    Per your Rudd comment. He shot a cameo in Bridesmaids that was cut out. I think he was supposed to play Wiig’s ex that’s alluded to. But yeah, put them in a movie together should be great.

  26. sanj says:

    hey DP – can you start a new BYOB ?

  27. David Poland says:

    I know, Luke… just hit me funny.

  28. JS Partisan says:

    If only we lived in a world where people would go and see 13 Assassins in droves.

  29. Krillian says:

    That world exists. Ask Anna Torv.

  30. JS Partisan says:

    Kril, there is another of everything in the world.

  31. Not David Bordwell says:

    Anna Torv!!!

    Fringe jumped the shark when Fauxlivia slept with Peter.

  32. JS Partisan says:

    Fringe somehow survived the Friday death slot. IT ENDURES! KNEEL BEFORE… WALTER!

  33. christian says:

    “The scene in the elevator when he’s singing “time in a bottle”

    That’s like a lame, obvious tv commercial bit.

  34. leahnz says:

    far funnier lift scene:

    http://wn.com/Best_Scene_of_Dawn_of_the_Dead_2004

    bradley (who’s called ‘bradley’ anyway, isn’t it just shortened to ‘brad’ at some point?) cooper’s best movie: midnight meat train

    there’s a shot in ‘MMT’ from the POV of a person’s decapitated head whirling thru the air

  35. LexG says:

    Hey, leahnz:

    I realize I’m on the pay-no-mind list, but just out of sheer curiosity, have you seen a movie called “And Soon the Darkness”? I watched it because of the epic hot-chick matchup of Odette Yustman and Amber Heard, but FYI your #1 favorite, Karl Urban, is in it. That dude is BEYOND AWESOME, but he’s kind of wasted in it. He just kind of skulks around looking cool but distraught, playing an American, moping around some Latin American country looking for his lost girlfriend and helping Heard find her lost sunbathing partner Odette. Given the delayed, DTV 2010 release date and his general appearance, I’d guess it was filmed right after Star Trek, esp since he seems to have some leftover Bones-isms in his acting style.

    Anyway, don’t expect a response, but since you’re an Urban completist, just so you know…

  36. leahnz says:

    of course i’ve seen it, what kind of dipshit do you think i am. i actually kinda liked it, karl is a bit wasted but heard does a decent job, i like her

  37. Foamy Squirrel says:

    “what kind of dipshit do you think i am”

    Which of the many delicious flavours of dipshit shall we choose from… 😉

  38. LexG says:

    “of course i’ve seen it, what kind of dipshit do you think i am”

    Shit, I don’t know. In the US it went straight to video and I’d never heard of it til five days ago, so was just sayin’, on the off chance it fell thru the cracks everywhere.

  39. leahnz says:

    foamy: chocolate dip w/hundreds & thousands and a cadbury flake bar pressed in the side, waffle cone

    (‘and soon the darkness’ has been out on DVD here for ages)

  40. palmtree says:

    “I don’t understand how anyone doesn’t find Ken Jeong not funny.”

    I don’t not disagree with the opposite of that statement!

  41. Ken Jeong was wonderful in the first season of Community, when he was used in smaller doses and was allowed to have a certain amount of self-respect and authority. But the terrible decision to revoke his professorship at the end of season one pretty much killed his character, turning him into a pathetic and self-pitying loser who spent the entire second year begging for the approval of the very people he used to lord over. It was the one horrible artistic decision in an otherwise dynamite second season of a terrific show.

  42. Joe Leydon says:

    Karl Urban was pretty dang effective in Priest, a movie that, for me, defines “guilty pleasure.”

  43. Actually wanted to see Priest, purely in a lazy matinée kinda-way. But by the time I had a free afternoon, the 2D screens had vanished…

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