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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Posted Thursday, May 26th, 2011 - 15 Comments »

16 Weeks Of Summer Charts, Take 2

15 Comments »

15 Responses to “16 Weeks Of Summer Charts, Take 2”

  1. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:
    May 26, 2011 at 6:20 pm

    FAST FIVE?

  2. Jason says:
    May 26, 2011 at 6:26 pm

    DP’s probably not considering it a summer release. I saw that boxofficemojo wasn’t considering it in his analysis either.

  3. Alex says:
    May 26, 2011 at 9:31 pm

    Rise of the Planet of the Apes is too high. Larry Crowne is too low.

  4. Chisox says:
    May 26, 2011 at 9:47 pm

    Dark Side’s domestic total guess is way too low. 470 domestic would be my guess.

  5. Jason says:
    May 27, 2011 at 6:59 am

    Transformers will get to $400 DM. And Apes looms like it will settle at $100M. I cannot understand how people think Apes will be so big. I thnk formers wins the summer over Potter. I just don’t see Potter winning the summer. Wouldn’t people have shown up for Part 1 if we’re using the whole “last Potter in theater” argument?

  6. anghus says:
    May 27, 2011 at 8:51 am

    i think warners basically opted for a ’2 for 1′ deal on Deathly Hallows.

    Part 2 will do a hair more than Part 1, but since they’ve stretched out the end of the series they won’t get a surge for Part 2.

    It’s the cinematic equivalent of a furniture store that’s going out of business for a year.

  7. jesse says:
    May 27, 2011 at 9:22 am

    Anghus, since all of the Harry Potter movies are pretty close together gross-wise (with the first one still the highest at 317 and the third/best being the lowest at 250 and the last four all hitting in the 290-300 range), it won’t take much of a bump to get the final one into the highest grossing of the series, or at least the top two.

    I do wonder if it was worth it to split the movie in two. But you figure if left as is, the movie of Book 7 would’ve been a longer and more expensive single movie than either of the two (though obviously not as much as the two put together). So there would probably be a bit more pressure on it to deliver a franchise-high gross. It might’ve been better positioned to get into the 350-400 range, but it also would’ve been a pricier movie and the series would probably be over by now.

    My guess is the feeling that if people skip any, it would be 7a, and that the grosses for 7b would be undiminished.

    I mean, even if the last movie “only” does 300 million (which feels like the minimum to me), that’s a combined gross of $600 million domestic; no way would a solo Deathly Hallows hit that number.

    The Potter movies are huge, but the consistency of their grosses does make them feel like a mega-niche. I mean, I’m sure all four quadrants check them out, but a series that does just under $300 million every time out, while something any studio would envy, also feels a bit less like an event outside of the Potter fanbase. Essentially, they got a chunk of their audience back for Part 4, and the series hasn’t really grown since then. Not that it needs to, but it makes those flashy Batman/Transformers style gross bumps less likely/possible.

  8. Jason says:
    May 27, 2011 at 9:31 am

    It looks like $31.7M Thursday for Hangover and $5.8M for Panda.

    DP, are your opening estimates 3-day or 5-day (or 4-day) for the 2 movies? Hangover could easily be looking at $150M by end of Monday. That is huge. The only question is this movie going to be greatly front loaded? It could have trouble reaching $300M DM, even with this opening… Depends if it has the repeatability feel and if it is critic proof (certainly the opening is)..

  9. anghus says:
    May 27, 2011 at 9:35 am

    dont summer Potter films make less than Thanksgiving Potter films?

    I think it could get to 300, but i wouldn’t be surprised if it tops out at 250.

    The Potter films have always been good, entertaining yarns but it’s been 16 hours of building up to a finale that feels, to me, an obligation than an event.

    it’s like that episode of Seinfeld where Elaine is trying to get the card back from the sub shop for her free sandwich. Not because the sandwich is that good, but because she went so many times before and spent so much time getting the card stamped for the free sub.

    Deathly Hallows Pt 2 is the free sandwich. People will go, but do you think there’s a real excietment for this final installment? To me, it’s the biggest blockbuster with the least amount of buzz. I don’t see it exceeding the other Potter films by 10%. And you’re right, it wouldn’t take more than that to make it the highest grossing in the series.

    either way, the level of excitement for it seems non-existent

  10. jesse says:
    May 27, 2011 at 9:45 am

    Anghus, maybe one or both of us are skewed by whoever we hang out with, but among people I know who liked the other Potter movies and/or care about Potter in general, yes, excitement for this movie goes beyond obligation. I definitely detect excitement in my peer group.

    I’m sort of in the middle. I actually liked parts of 7a more than any of the other movies, maybe because it felt like they were allowed to play around with the text a little more, and a lot of the stuff that was kind of dull in the book actually played well onscreen, so I’m both looking forward to 7b and also understand that it will be more of a special-effects blowout that hews more closely to the novel.

    Part 3 was the lowest-grossing of the series and that was their first summer release, but since then, they’ve done fine in the summer; 6 is the second-biggest, and that was a July movie. 4 was holiday and 5 was summer; they did about the same. I’d be shocked if the last one does 250. That would make the lowest grossing of the series! I mean, seven years of inflation and some 3-D tickets ought to insure that, at minimum, it’s on the upper end of the Potter scale.

    In general, though, I sort of agree with you about the top-level movies of the summer in terms of buzz/excitement/curiosity. The movies most likely to pass 300 million are Potter and Transformers, and though I do think some people are quite excited for both of those movies, there is kind of a feeling of, OK, we know what those movies will be like. Both have a feeling of, wasn’t this the #1 movie of some other summer already?

    Hangover II, I guess, had/has some fresher excitement, but even with this fantastic opening gross, it’s unlikely that it’ll be #1 for the summer, right?

    The room for surprise (in terms of expectations) is still with X-Men: First Class, Super 8, and Cowboys & Aliens, and none of them seem like candidates to clear even $250 million (not that any of them need to). Here’s hoping, though, just for a little box-office variety/excitement (and because those are the three movies I’m really hoping are great).

  11. Geoff says:
    May 27, 2011 at 10:44 am

    Cowboys & Aliens and Super 8 both have mad upside, but i could also see them tanking – I do like how Universal is selling the iconography of ‘Aliens, not sure if it will work.

    I’ve said it before – there’s no reason why Cars can’t be the biggest movie this summer. $400 million is definitely possible. And sure, Transformers has the potential to do that much, but how many people really liked Part 2? I would expect a bit of a downturn like Pirates or Shrek did in their third installments.

  12. palmtree says:
    May 27, 2011 at 11:46 am

    Jeff Boam’s Doc, I’ve been beating that drum too to no avail. Even though it’s CLEARLY a summer film franchise (first three films opened mid-June), and even though it CLEARLY opened the summer film season this year, and even though it’s huge opening weekend gross was because the marketing led the audiences to believe it was the summer opener, that still doesn’t qualify Fast Five as a summer film. How exactly I’m not sure…

    Personally, all it means is that the start of summer isn’t like sweeps for TV which comes on a schedule. Granted studios fight for opening slots based on an agreed “start of summer,” but Universal opened summer ahead that so rather than have the tail wag the dog, shouldn’t our summer charts reflect what actually happened in theatres?

    Of course I could just be wrong…anyone have an explanation other than “everyone else thinks this way so you should too”?

  13. David Poland says:
    May 27, 2011 at 12:49 pm

    Studios tried to turn the last weekend of April into the first weekend of summer once before… Universal and Scorpion King. Universal. Didn’t take.

    There was no, ‘This year, the summer starts early,” etc.

    First weekend of May is the first weekend of the summer movie season. That’s just the way it’s been for a long time. One is not a trend… though I suspect that some studio will try that slot out next year.

    I don’t start the “holiday season” in October or end the summer season in mid-September either.

  14. palmtree says:
    May 27, 2011 at 1:06 pm

    “There was no, ‘This year, the summer starts early,” etc.”

    Really, DP? Fast Five Trailer #2 says “Summer begins April 29.”

    Yeah, I agree it’s no trend, but a film that has MAY 1st in its opening weekend is a SUMMER movie. That’s all.

  15. kid PA says:
    May 27, 2011 at 1:20 pm

    You have Horrible Bosses at 60m WW… taking half the domestic of 30 Minutes Or Less? You gotta be outta your fucking mind, DP.

    Also.. release date on it is July 8th… not August 5th.

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