Gurus o’ Gold – The Final Ballot, pt 1 of 3

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 The King's Speech
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 15 149
2 2 The Social Network
2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 3 15 132
3 3 True Grit
3 3 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 2 6 3 4 3 2 15 114
4 4 The Fighter
4 5 2 3 5 4 3 4 3 6 3 5 2 4 4 15 108
5 5 Black Swan
5 4 6 7 4 5 7 5 5 4 7 4 5 8 5 15 84
6 6 Inception
6 10 5 5 7 6 5 6 6 8 5 7 7 6 6 15 70
7 7 Toy Story 3
8 8 9 6 6 8 6 7 8 10 4 6 8 7 8 15 56
8 8 The Kids Are All Right
7 7 8 8 9 7 10 9 7 7 8 8 6 5 7 15 52
9 10 Winter's Bone
10 6 10 9 8 9 9 10 9 5 10 10 9 10 9 15 32
10 9 127 Hours
9 9 7 10 10 10 8 8 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 15 28

Rank Last Chart Best Actor AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Colin Firth
The King's Speech
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 15 75
2 3 Jesse Eisenberg
The Social Network
2 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 15 49
3 2 James Franco
127 Hours
3 3 3 5 5 4 3 2 2 5 4 4 2 3 2 15 40
4 5 Javier Bardem
Biutiful
4 5 5 2 4 3 4 4 5 2 2 3 5 4 5 15 33
5 4 Jeff Bridges
True Grit
5 2 2 4 3 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 15 28
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Christian Bale
The Fighter
1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 15 72
2 2 Geoffrey Rush
The King's Speech
2 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 15 62
3 3 Mark Ruffalo
The Kids Are All Right
3 4 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 15 40
4 4 John Hawkes
Winter's Bone
4 2 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 4 4 5 15 29
5 5 Jeremy Renner
The Town
5 5 4 4 3 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 15 22
Rank Last Chart Best Actress AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Natalie Portman
Black Swan
1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 15 72
2 2 Annette Bening
The Kids Are All Right
2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 15 62
3 3 Nicole Kidman
Rabbit Hole
3 3 4 3 4 5 4 5 3 2 4 4 4 3 3 15 36
4 4 Jennifer Lawrence
Winter's Bone
4 5 3 4 3 4 3 3 4 5 3 3 3 4 4 15 35
5 5 Michelle Williams
Blue Valentine
5 4 5 5 5 3 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 15 20
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Melissa Leo
The Fighter
1 1 4 1 1 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 15 65
2 2 Hailee Steinfeld
True Grit
2 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 15 63
3 3 Helena Bonham Carter
The King's Speech
3 5 3 3 2 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 1 2 15 45
4 4 Amy Adams
The Fighter
4 4 2 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 15 35
5 5 Jacki Weaver
Animal Kingdom
5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 15 17
Rank Last Chart Best Director AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 David Fincher
The Social Network
1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 15 71
2 2 Tom Hooper
The King's Speech
2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 15 64
3 3 Darren Aronofsky
Black Swan
4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 3 3 3 3 5 4 4 15 32
t4 5 Joel & Ethan Coen
True Grit
3 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 5 4 5 5 4 3 5 15 29
t4 4 David O. Russell
The Fighter
5 4 3 3 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 5 3 15 29
Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 The Social Network
Aaron Sorkin
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 15 75
2 4 Toy Story 3
Michael Arndt
2 2 3 2 2 5 2 3 3 4 2 5 2 2 4 15 47
3 2 True Grit
Joel and Ethan Coen
3 3 5 3 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 3 3 3 2 15 43
4 3 Winter's Bone
Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini
5 4 2 4 3 2 4 4 5 2 3 2 5 5 3 15 37
5 5 127 Hours
Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy
4 5 4 5 5 3 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 15 23
Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 The King's Speech
David Seidler
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 15 74
2 2 The Kids Are All Right
Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
2 2 3 4 2 2 4 4 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 15 50
3 3 Inception
Christopher Nolan
3 4 1 2 5 3 2 3 3 5 3 2 4 3 2 15 45
4 4 The Fighter
Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
4 3 4 3 4 4 3 2 4 2 4 4 3 4 4 15 38
5 5 Another Year
Mike Leigh
5 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 15 18

42 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold – The Final Ballot, pt 1 of 3”

  1. Alex says:

    Why can’t Tom Hooper win Best Director? Cause since 2002 when Rob Marshall didn’t get it for “Chicago”, it never happened to any movie that won Best Picture not to win Best Director. Please respond…

  2. Alex says:

    Same to Geoffrey Rush and Helena Bonham Carter(Supporting actor/actress)…..Last year at the BAFTAs won Christopher Waltz/Mo’Nique….Don’t you get the idea that what awards are received at the BAFTAs the same they get at the Oscars?

  3. Alex says:

    Some itsy/bitsy exceptions, but this year “The King’s Speech” will rule…

  4. Daniella Isaacs says:

    The King’s Speech is little more than a Masterpiece Theater episode on a big screen, Alex. It’s sad enough that it’s going to win best picture. I’m glad the buzz suggests a real CINEMA director might take the directing Oscar and that the supporting actor awards will likewise go to bolder work. (Though I do love HBC in just about anything.) The King’s Speech will win, if it does, because everyone loves the simple, humanly affecting story, not because anyone is mistaking it for “great cinema.”

  5. Sam says:

    Alex: Nobody’s saying Hooper CAN’T win Best Director. These are simply predictions — slightly more people thought Aronofsky was slightly more likely to win it. It’s too reductive to interpret calls of a close race as “X can’t win Best Director.” Be reasonable.

    As for “getting” the idea that what awards are received at the BAFTAs are the same as the Oscars, this is blatantly false. In the 2000s, BAFTA and Oscar have matched in the Supporting Actor category only 50% of the time. (Interestingly, one of the mismatches was 2001, where Jim Broadbent won the BAFTA for Moulin Rouge and the Oscar for Iris. I call that a mismatch, but I’d spot you that one if you were to insist.)

    For Best Supporting Actress, BAFTA and Oscar have matched 80% of the time, a stronger correlation. But not an infallible one.

    In both cases, it probably makes sense to predict the BAFTA winners *unless* you can come up with a justification for why this year’s BAFTA winners have a less than usual chance of winning. It should be self-evident that there is not just one such justification but two.

    1. “The King’s Speech” has an especially British appeal. Of course this doesn’t mean that The King’s Speech isn’t loved here, too — it’ll probably win Best Picture, which represents quite a lot of love and admiration. But it makes sense that BAFTA would give even more of an edge to the British film. And indeed, if you look at the cases where BAFTA has NOT matched Oscar, it’s very often in favor of a British film or person.

    2. Rush and Carter have won the BAFTAs but lost virtually EVERY OTHER comparable award, including some that have an equal or better track record at matching the Oscar.

    Again, no one is saying that Rush and Carter CAN’T win, just that Bale, Leo, and Steinfeld are more LIKELY to win — perhaps by as small as a 1% margin of confidence. Is that so outrageous?

    You can’t just look at a single data point, which isn’t even 100%, and say, “SEEEE???” Look at the big picture.

  6. Alex says:

    You beat the @@@@ out of me. You’re good! Congrats!

  7. Alex says:

    But after all you are right…”The Social Network” will get Best Director, probably Picture, as well as Supporting Actress to Melissa Leo/Hailee Steinfeld and Supporting Actor to Christian Bale.

  8. cadavra says:

    Interesting that Steinfeld has now moved ahead of Leo. I’d be curious to know if the Gurus are blaming The Ad.

  9. Sam says:

    I’m not sure if I’m ready to make the jump to Steinfeld. Pros:

    1. True Grit is well-liked. Voters may want to reward it, but what other opportunity is there? Cinematography, I hope, but Supporting Actress would be a stronger statement.

    2. This is the category where surprises tend to happen.

    Cons:

    1. Younger and first-time nominees don’t tend to win. It does happen, but not often.

    2. No real traction with any other awards body.

    Now add Leo’s ad to the list of pros, but I don’t think it will be a very big factor. Seems like the cons win here, but who knows.

    This is definitely the most interesting of the acting races.

  10. Vincent S says:

    It’s interesting that most of the Gurus are sticking to Fincher for director. While the BAFTA win is compelling, isn’t the DGA win for Hooper far more compelling? After all, I believe the DGA/Best Director correlation is the highest single-variable correlation of any stat in any category.

    Personally I think TSN is the better film and Fincher deserves the win. But my brain tells me Hooper has the edge. Are the gurus voting with their hearts rather than their brains? Or is there evidence to suggest that BAFTA trumps DGA this year? If so, I’d like to know what that is.

  11. Glamourboy says:

    I think that not only Melissa Leo’s glam ads but also her bitchy remarks that she’s been making in interviews about some of her fellow nominees, will sink her. I don’t think Steinfeld has a chance as True Grit has been dipping in popularity–I think it is now Helena Bonham Carter’s to win. She is well liked, has a good body of work, and she’s going to get caught up in The Kings Speech sweep.

  12. Kerri says:

    All good arguments concerning the Supporting Actress category. I might ad that seeing this is the category that always gives us a surprise – why not consider a win by Adams? This is her third nomination in this category, she’s obviously well liked/respected. I don’t agree that she’s the strongest pick in this category, but 3 noms without a win and all the swirling turmoil around the front runner (Leo) and the category fraud/too young factor for Steinfeld could be to her favor. If you’re willing to turn a blind eye to the Steamrolling TKS, that is.

  13. Samuel Deter says:

    What bitchy remarks has Melissa Leo said, Glamourboy?

  14. Cynthia says:

    Alex (comment No. 1): Ang Lee won best director for “Brokeback” the year “Crash” won best picture. So the picture/director split has happened since “Chicago.”

  15. felipe says:

    Annette Bening should winning Oscar because her performance was the best of 2010. She’s great and amazing in The Kids Are Allright. Very talented.

  16. Charles Brown says:

    Just saw Winter’s Bone. It has no chance for anything but what a powerful moving experience. An art experience like Cinema is subjective, not objective so don’t preach to me about voting with your brain. I love Opera and hate hip hop, but it has nothing to do with rational thought. It is whatever rings your bell. Social Network did not ring my bell.

    A political statement about Winter’s Bone. The Hollywood and media critics are all part of the liberal elite. “Why of course we want to help poor people, but white trash? We’ll vote for the Demos to take care of them, but we don’t really want to have to associate with poor people, unless of course they are persons of color.” That’s trendy. The Chilean earthquake was much more intense than the one in Haiti, but I didn’t see any Sean Penn fundraisers for the people of Chile. There are plenty of needy adoptable caucasion babies from Sandra Bullock’s area of home, but adopting caucasions is so yesterday. We have to show we are trendy and follow the lead of Angelina and Madonna. Who gives a fuck about people like Rea Dolly. Jack D. Ripper

  17. jason says:

    Inception should definitely win best original screenplay. I don’t see anything more original than that in the running.

  18. Almasy says:

    Great site.

    Love the oscars.

    But honestly, some people are so obnoxious, they come to this site about votes and probabilities and complain when the results are not what’s in their heads.

    If you don’t like it, don’t bitch about it

  19. YusuF says:

    I have one query, why is suddenly Inception ignored by all the awards? I just cannot fathom why would the Oscars skip nominating Nolan for best director? Having seen all the best film / Director nominees, the race should have been between The King’s Speech, The Social Network & Inception.

  20. Stephen Holt says:

    I think it’s Helena Bonham-Carter, too. This is a WIDE OPEN race in Supporting actress and “The King’s Speech” as Anne Thompson just assented in Indiewire could very well sweep Helena in.

    She just won the BAFTA, and gave a Tilda-esque great acceptance speech, funny, humble, witty and in the end totally moving. I was moved to tears. Just like at the end of the movie itself.

    She’s had an EXTRAORDINARY body of work, and she’s playing one of the most beloved royals on the last century.

    She and her husband, King George VI, STAYED in London during the Blitz! They were a symbol of hope, strength and courage during England’s darkest hour.

    And the Queen of England liked her, too!

  21. rob says:

    Since 2000 there have been three splits already so, a fourth split is not unexpected. It seems to happen more frequently this decade.

    2000 – Gladiator/ Steven Soderberg- Traffic
    2002- Chicago/Roman Polanski – The Pianist
    2005- Crash/Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain

    From 1967 to 1998 (31 years)there were only five splits

    1967- In the Heat of the Night/ Mike Nichols- The Graduate
    1972- The Godfather/Bob Fosse- Caberet
    1981 – Chariots of Fire/ Warren Beatty – Reds
    1989- Driving Miss Daisy / Oliver Stone- Born on the 4th of July
    1998- Shakespeare In Love / Steven Speilberg- Saving Private Ryan

  22. jdawg says:

    I really hope Fincher wins best director, thats the only category I really care about because Fincher was the best out of that group. whatever wins best picture doesnt matter to me, i can see why people are charmed by kings speech so if it wins thats cool but I feel like Fincher is at the top of his class currently, a real interesting guy.

    also I am extremely surprised to see Geoffrey Rush being considered a legit contender for best supporting actor, i was sure bale had this totally wrapped up. this might be an indication of some hesitency to award bale who’s gotten some bad press over the past two years roughly, with him getting arrested for yelling at his mom and sis and then berating that cameraman on the terminator set, that sort of stuff factors into stuff whether its fair or not.

    Rush was the best part of Kings Speech in my book, the guy is a definite talent for sure and a total class act with complete respect towards the craft of acting and filmmaking. It’d be great to see him win a second academy award. bale was good in the fighter but it was almost too showy, still i cant see how bale loses.

    also I think Bonham Carter is a totally legit contender for best supporting actress, probably the most likely to win in my book, it was a good performance and shes a pretty talented actress, Melissa Leo’s performance in the fighter didnt stand out as anything that interesting.

  23. Alex says:

    I hope I will live and see an animated movie winning Best Picture…

  24. Daniella Isaacs says:

    @Alex. It won’t happen as long as there’s a separate animated category. Same goes for documentary and foreign language films. If those three categories didn’t exist, films like FANNY AND ALEXANDER, UP, and HEARTS AND MINDS might actually have a chance at the BP prize.

  25. Alex says:

    I can dream,right?

  26. Jenn says:

    @jdawg. Rush is considered a threat only because his performance is in The King’s Speech and there is the longshot possibility of a coattail win if “Speech” sweeps. It has nothing to do with Bale who is highly respected in the industry. If Rush’s performance was in, say, Winters Bone, I doubt it would be considered a threat at all. Not that Rush’s performance is not wonderful and nomination worthy-it is.

  27. Stephen Holt says:

    Christian Bale isn’t liked. Period. None of the techies voting are gonna forget that anti-techie tirade at one of their own. I can’t get it out of my mind.

    And the mother/sister thing. AND he’s young. He’ll have another chance. He’s only what? 39?

    And thirdly,the Academy is afraid of him pulling the REAL Dickie on stage with him. Like he did at the Globes…It was an ewwww moment, the Academy is not going to want him to repeat.

    Melissa(don’t diss her)Leo called Hailee Steinfeld “that little thing from ‘True Grit’” on Jimmy Kimmel. Also on Kimmel she didn’t recognize a picture of Mo’nique.

    “Is that one of my mother’s friends?”

    Kimmel”I don’t know. Who does your mother hang out with?”

    And she told the NYTimes at the Oscar Nominee luncheon that the Oscars were “pimping yourself out.”

    Maybe they are, but again the Academy doesn’t like that kind of Sally Kirkland-esque behavior.

    And she said something to the effect that Helena BC shoved her at that same luncheon. The quote was REALLY convoluted and wierd.

    If only she had kept her mouth shut. Ditto Christian Bale.

    Whereas Geoffrey Rush is admired, distinguished, loved by all AND he helped get this brilliant film made. His biggest fault, he’s already got an Oscar.

  28. Ian Mantgani says:

    The reason Hooper likely won’t win for directing is this: The award normally goes to a big-name director. A mid-career lifetime achievement award if you will. Sam Mendes is a notable recent exception to this, although he did have a rather large reputation from his theatre work. Since him, check out the names of the winners: Stephen Soderbergh, Ron Howard, Roman Polanski, Peter Jackson, Clint Eastwood, Ang Lee, Martin Scorsese, the Coen brothers, Danny Boyle, Kathryn Bigelow.

    At the end of that list, Tom Hooper would be an odd fit indeed. Hugh Hudson ain’t got himself no Oscar neither.

    Further to that, chamber pieces don’t normally get directing Oscars – flashy stuff like TSN does.

    On similar lines I’m going to back up jdawg and say Helena Bonham Carter’s chances are being very much underplayed. I think it was Ebert who made an offhand comment about the Supporting Actress category by saying this is where the Academy likes to reward wildcards. It absolutely isn’t. In fact, you’re more likely to win a Best Actor Oscar as a wildcard than here, where you get rewarded for being a celebrity who turns in a good performance (even if you’re a celeb from another medium, like Mo’Nique or Jen Hudson.) Marcia Gay Harden was an exception. The last real wildcard was Anna Paquin, who was just so awesome for her age they couldn’t help but give it to her (and that’s the one indicator in Steinfeld’s favour.)

    I’m guessing HBC is more beloved in Hollywood than Melissa Leo, and I’m guessing the Academy at large wasn’t blown away by “True Grit” like they were by “The Piano”, although I could, of course, be wrong.

  29. Vincent S says:

    Ian – were Stephen Soderbergh, Danny Boyle, and Kathryn Bigelow big name directors before their respective films? I’m not so sure.

  30. Carlos A says:

    @Almasy

    Try going over AwardsDaily.com
    There, Sasha Stone has tried everything to trash The King’s Speech on a daily base. Her favorite, as you can see above, is The Social Network and her site is full of TSN fan boys/girls that propably will kill you if you dare to write anything pro-The King’s Speech.

  31. Carlos A says:

    I mean, probably…

  32. Ian Mantgani says:

    Vincent – Yes, they were.

  33. Sasha Stone says:

    Carlos, it’s like running to daddy when mommy drinks too much and starts flirting with your teenage friends, isn’t it? Poor baby.

    The King’s Speech is not a worthy Best Picture winner. It’s a sad thing to watch a car accident happen and be able to do nothing to stop it. I wish more people would say something – it’s like Prozac Nation on the web these days.

  34. Ian Mantgani says:

    You “wish more people would say something”? Jeez, it’s not like this is a life-or-death situation. No need to pretend we’re in Berlin in 1933, or Florida in 2000.

    “King’s Speech” is an okay flick, not the worst of the 10, and certainly wouldn’t be the worst BP winner of recent times. Think of “Crash.” That was a car accident. About car accidents, too.

  35. Carlos A says:

    But you see Sasha, I think both movies are excellent. Just because you like TSN more it doesn’t mean it’s the best.
    I’ll go back and visit your wonderful site once this whole thing is over. I like it there.

  36. Alex says:

    I hope Tom Hooper wins….

  37. Daniella Isaacs says:

    Ebert was likely thinking of Mira Sorvino, Marisa Tomei, Tilda Swinton, as well, when he said supporting actress is a bit of a wild card. The first two were in comedies (and Sorvino’s performance was pretty cartoony, let’s face it) and Swinton was an art house actress (brilliant enough but little known in Hollywood at the time) on her first nomination.

  38. The O-Critic says:

    I read at Scott Feinberg that the DGA is composed of mostly television directors, and Hooper was a former television director. Some people predict Hooper to win because he won the DGA Award, but I don’t think that’s fair. Hooper had big name actors even over here whom we know can act. Fincher, on the other hand, took actors of which we know little and made them their characters. That takes more skill.

    If anything, Fincher is the most deserving of the Oscar, in my opinion.

  39. Simon T. says:

    I would like to see the past performance of the gurus. It is easy to jump on the popular wagon. To be a true guru, you need to forecast at least some of the surprises. So far, I haven’t seen a better prediction rate than I did in the last 4-5 years (not that I have been excellent, but most predictions have been so poor).
    And I think the race for the best picture is still open. But the new voting system gives a slight advantage to the King’s Speech.

  40. Nicole says:

    I’ve not yet seen The King’s Speech but a friend said it was excellent I need to see it. Natalie was brillant in the Black Swan there’s no doubt that she will win tonight. Colin Firth as well because he’s such a great actor period I can’t wait to watch especially the costume design nominees. And all the actors expression who are destine to win big tonight.

  41. Logan says:

    ONLY CRUSHING DISAPPOINTMENT OF THE NIGHT FOR ME: THE LOSS OF THE BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY OSCAR THAT SHOULD’VE GONE TO ROGER DEAKINS’”TRUE GRIT” GONIG INSTEAD TO “INCEPTION.”

  42. This is holy-minded. her would itch to arbitrate your opinions on pricing regard this “new husbandry.”

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