Gurus o’ Gold: Has Anything Changed This Week?
|Rank||Last Chart||Has Anything Changed In The Last Week?||Appelo||Breznican||Ellwood||Hammond||Hernandez||Howell||Karger||Levy||Olsen||Poland||Pond||Stone||Tapley||Thompson||Wloszczyna||Votes||Total|
|One Vote Wonders|
Peter Howell – “Yes. The one thing I think has changed significantly is that everyone, apart from diehards who are yielding to emotion rather than logic, now concedes that The King’s Speech is a mortal lock for Best Picture. It’s a big change from the volatility of last year, when there was a tough two-way race between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Even last week, there were still people seriously talking of a Social Network upset. But it’s not in the cards. Too bad, because coronations are boring.”
Sasha Stone (No) – “The Best Picture race has not changed. What has changed is that the few of us who actually thought a film like The Social Network could ever win on merit and critical acclaim alone were forced to acknowledge what the Gurus of Gold knew all along: that The King’s Speech started the race as the frontrunner and it will end the race as the winner. It’s worth noting that there has never been such a divide between the film critics and the industry. True, there are more critics awards now, but there are also more guild awards than there were decades ago. The PGA and the SAG are relatively new compared to the National Board of Review, the Los Angeles and New York Film Critics and the Golden Globe.
Only three films since 1975 have won all four: Schindler’s List, Terms of Endearment and The Social Network. Needless to say, two out of three will have won Best Picture.
“Critics don’t vote for the Oscars.” No, they don’t. But one cannot help but be somewhat astonished nonetheless.
It wasn’t a misreading of the race to see The Social Network as a film that could win. Only a cynic imagines an Oscar race that is as by-the-numbers as this one turned out to be. An optimist can’t help but hope that the Academy would honor not just a good film, but a film that is better than the other nine. Better is a matter of opinion, of course, and therein the cynicism lies.
The only other thing that changed is that the question now becomes not “Will the King’s Speech win” but “just how many Oscars will the King’s Speech win?” Geoffrey Rush and Helena Bonham Carter could both upset the favorites in those categories.”