Night Moves
MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report: January 9, 2011

Season of the Grinch

Times were darn good for a man who eats grits as the season’s surprise hit True Grit edged out Little Fockers for the top slot in weekend movie sales. The films had respective three-day box office of $14.8 million and $13.7 million.

The lone newcomer of the session was the thriller Season of the Witch that slotted third with $10.4 million. It also featured the national launch (following an Oscar-qualifying run) of the hard life musical yarn 

Niche freshmen included No One Killed Jessica on the Bollywood circuit with an OK $280,000. The small but loyal Filipino audience was out in force for recent Manila Fest favorite Ang Tanging Ina Mo Last that grossed $104,000 from 11 screens.

Overall revenues generated about $112 million that repped a 30% drop from both last weekend and the first weekend of 2010. Avatar led ticket sales last year with a $50.3 million frame.

With final numbers for 2010 finally tallied, results (see charts) were marginally better than initial projections. The year finished at $10.63 billion and a slim 0.4% decline from 2009. While the majors experienced the sort of annual fluctuations that are the norm, most of the independents took it hard on the chin. Overture, Focus and The Weinstein Co. each experienced the pain of not having a single hit on the domestic front and revenues that shrunk by half or more.

The New Year has largely been dominated by adult fare with the likes of Grit, Black Swan, The Fighter and The King’s Speech showing the best resilience and generating positive word-of-mouth as award season ramps up. Conversely family targeted films are experiencing fast fades.

The mood is more glum than gloom. Industry mavens and pundits essentially don’t see a breakout success in the upcoming two to three months … but are willing to be surprised.

________________________________________

Weekend Estimates – January 7-9, 2011

Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
True Grit Par 14.8 (4,740) -39% 3124 110.2
Little Fockers Uni 13.7 (3,740) -47% 3675 123.9
Season of the Witch Relativity 10.4 (3,680) NEW 2816 10.4
Tron: Legacy BV 10.1 (3,350) -46% 3013 148.2
Black Swan Fox Searchlight 8.2 (5,160) -8% 1584 61.3
Country Strong Sony 7,3 (5,150)   1424 7.5
The Fighter Par/Alliance 6.9 (2,740) -31% 2528 57.8
Yogi Bear WB 6.6 (2,020) -47% 3288 75.4
The King’s Speech Weinstein Co. 6.6 (8,650) -16% 758 33
Tangled BV 5.1 ((2,160) -48% 2383 175.8
Gulliver’s Travels Fox 4.7 (1,590) -49% 2964 34.6
Chronicles of Narnia: Dawn Treader Fox 4.7 (1,660) -54% 2814 94.6
The Tourist Sony 3.9 (1,580) -42% 2442 61.3
Harry Potter & the Deathly Hollows, Part 1* WB 2.4 (1,570) -49% 1507 287.7
How Do You Know Sony 1.9 (990) -59% 1902 28.8
Blue Valentine Weinstein Co. .73 (18,250) 277% 40 1.2
The Social Network Sony .62 (1,030 34% 603 94
Unstoppable Fox .33 (830) -37% 398 80
No One Killed Jessica UTV .28 (4,200) NEW 67 0.28
Due Date WB .26 (1,070) -39% 244 99.6
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)   $108.65      
% Change (Last Year)   -30%      
% Change (Last Week)   -30%      
Also debuting/expanding
Somewhere Focus .13 (7,820) -4% 17 0.63
Ang Tanging Ina Mo Last ABS .10 (9,430)   11 0.1
Rabbit Hole Lions Gate .11 (3,110) -24% 35 0.63
Another Year Sony Classics 0.9 (12,900) -19% 7 0.31
The Illusionist Sony Classics 33,200 (11,070) -29% 3 0.18
The Time That Remains IFC 5,700 (5,700)   1 0.01

Top Domestic Grossers – 2010

Title Distributor Gross
Avatar * Fox 476,899,300
Toy Story 3 BV 415,071,937
Alice in Wonderland BV 334,191,110
Iron Man 2 Par 312,445,596
Twilight: Eclipse Summit 300,551,386
Inception WB 292,558,188
Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 WB 280,230,127
Despicable Me Uni 251,083,040
Shrek Forever After Par 238,667,087
How to Train Your Dragon Par 218,685,707
The Karate Kid Sony 176,797,997
Clash of the Titans WB 163,214,888
Grown Ups Sony 162,171,789
Tangled BV 161,284,390
Megamind Par 143,767,792
The Last Airbender Par 131,733,601
Shutter Island Par 128,051,522
The Other Guy Sony 119,560,156
Salt  Sony 118,485,665
Tron: Legacy BV 117,540,071

 

Market Share 2010

  Distributor (releases) Gross (millions) Mkt Share % Change Rank ’09
1 Warner Bros. (31) 1920.4 18.10% -9% 1
2 Paramount (20) 1731.7 16.30% 17% 2
3 Fox (20) 1503.5 14.10% 8% 4
4 Buena Vista (17) 1456.6 13.70% 18% 5
5 Sony (27) 1275.9 12.00% -13% 3
6 Universal (19) 883.9 8.30% -1% 6
7 Summit (11) 523.5 4.90% 8% 7
8 Lions Gate (16) 519.9 4.90% 27% 8
9 Fox Searchlight (8) 130.1 1.20% -51% 9
10 Overture (8) 87.5 0.80% -45% 12
11 The Weinstein Co. (10) 80.5 0.70% -61% 10
12 Focus (8) 75.5 0.70% -53% 11
13 CBS (3) 72.8 0.70% N/A NEW
14 Sony Classics (24) 60.1 0.60% 32% 16
15 MGM (1) 50.4 0.50% -22% 14
  Other (325) 260.4 1.10% N/A  
    10632.7 100% -0.40%  

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Lucy 17 3173 NEW 17
Hercules 11 3595 NEW 11
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 4.7 3668 -55% 160.4
The Purge: Anarchy 3.4 2856 -65% 44.8
Planes: Fire & Rescue 2.8 3839 -57% 28.6
Sex Tape 1.9 3062 -68% 22.8
And So It Goes 1.3 1762 NEW 1.3
Transformers: Age of Extinction 1.3 2476 -54% 233
Tammy 1.1 2562 -54% 75.8
22 Jump Street 0.8 1613 -46% 183.9
Also Debuting
A Most Wanted Man 0.71 361
The Fluffy Movie 0.51 432
Kick 0.37 179
Magic in the Moonlight 0.12 17
She's Dating the Gangster 70,000 46
Alludu Seenu 29,100 86
The Divine Move 13,000 11
Happy Christmas 4,150 4
A Master Builder 3,100 2
Thirumanam Ennum Nikkah 2,800 13
Eyjafjallajokull 1,800 4
Come Back to Me 1,500 8
A Letter to Momo 1,100 1
Very Good Girls 1,100 9
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office