By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Oscar Morning Coming Down
It’s still dark in Park City. There are a few surprises from the Oscar nominations, but they are limited.
Roadside Attractions is the happiest group this morning, scoring for Winter’s Bone in Best Picture and getting in not only the expected Jennifer Lawrence nod, but John Hawkes too. And the even bigger get… Bardem. Academy members should be thankful that Roadside kept pushing so hard for him and that he spend the holidays telling his story at screenings. Had he not been nominated, it would have been a black eye for the organization. Still, a real big deal, given how scared people were of that film.
Perhaps the biggest single surprise is one that was left out. Christopher Nolan NOT getting nominated for Inception when some (confused) people actually thought he could be an upset winner is a shocker. It also dampens the WB hopes for the film winning Best Picture.
Nearly as surprising… no nod for Effects for Tron Legacy, which got pushed out by Iron Man 2 and Hereafter.
All the talk about The Academy getting younger remains comedic, give or take 4 years on the median age. The Illusionist is one example. How did it get in ahead of Despicable Me? Old people. I would also attribute the failure to hand Robert Duvall a deserved nomination to the same thing. His character in Get Low seemed to put older voters in a sad place. A shame.
Also left out was The Town for Best Picture, supplanted by 127 Hours, which had lost steam with weak box office. (That should change this weekend.) Actor non-nods included Julianne Moore, Andrew Garfield, and Aaron Eckhart (all of whom will be back many times in future years). Plus a late surge of Mila Kunis expectation was not met… nor were any of the other Swan co-stars nodded. It’s all Natalie, all the time.
Nominations for I Am Love (costume), The Tempest (costume) are one-off surprises, as is the make-up nod for Barney’s Version.
Sond Mixing nods for The King’s Speech, True Grit, and The Social Network define the range of legit candidates for the win. But True Grit‘s lack of an editing nom is a very bad sign for that film. So it looks like a 2-film race to the end… kinda. I don’t think Social ends up getting close to Speech at the end.
The King’s Speech, 12 nods. True Grit, 10 nods. The Social Network, 8 nods. Inception, 8 nods. The Fighter, 7 nods. 127 Hours, 6 nods. Black Swan, 5 nods.
Here is the current gross list… this weekend’s number and the current domestic total. I think it’s more than fair to say that King’s Speech will be accelerating up this list starting this weekend. But it will have some challenges from Fighter and Swan, which should pass $90m and $100m respectively in the next 12 days (probably sooner). Speech will likely pass $100m and Social Net within 12 days. Expect Grit to hold onto the #3 slot firmly, with an outside shot now of getting with shouting distance of $200m domestic.
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
And there you have it. A few surprises, but pretty much as expected.