Gurus ‘ Gold: Oscar Nominations (Pt 1 of 3)

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStone*TapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 2 The King's Speech
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 140
2 1 The Social Network
2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 14 122
3 6 True Grit
3 2 3 5 7 2 4 3 3 2 4 4 3 2 14 107
4 3 The Fighter
4 5 4 3 4 4 3 5 4 6 3 3 4 5 14 97
5 4 Black Swan
5 4 6 6 3 5 6 4 5 4 5 5 6 4 14 86
6 5 Inception
8 9 8 7 5 6 7 6 6 8 6 8 10 6 14 54
7 8 The Kids Are All Right
6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 8 9 5 7 14 47
8 7 Toy Story 3
7 10 10 5 6 7 5 10 8 10 7 6 7 9 14 47
9 10 127 Hours
9 8 5 9 10 8 8 7 9 9 10 7 8 10 14 37
10 11 Winter's Bone
10 6 9 10 8 10 10 8 10 5 9 10 9 8 14 32

*Guru Stone has decided not to participate this week.

Rank Last Chart Best Director AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 David Fincher
The Social Network
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 60
2 2 Tom Hooper
The King's Speech
2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 12 46
3 6 Joel & Ethan Coen
True Grit
3 4 4 5 3 3 5 4 4 3 3 3 12 28
4 3 Darren Aronofsky
Black Swan
5 2 5 3 4 5 2 3 5 5 4 4 12 25
5 5 David O. Russell
The Fighter
4 5 3 4 5 4 4 5 3 4 5 5 12 21
Rank Last Chart Best Actor AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Colin Firth
The King's Speech
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 60
2 2 James Franco
127 Hours
4 2 2 5 5 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 12 36
3 3 Jesse Eisenberg
The Social Network
3 4 5 2 2 2 3 5 2 5 2 4 12 33
4 4 Jeff Bridges
True Grit
2 3 3 4 3 5 5 4 5 3 4 3 12 28
5 7 Javier Bardem
Biutiful
5 5 4 3 4 4 4 2 4 4 5 5 12 23
Rank Last Chart Best Actress AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 2 Natalie Portman
Black Swan
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 59
2 1 Annette Bening
The Kids Are All Right
2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 12 48
3 3 Nicole Kidman
Rabbit Hole
5 3 3 5 5 5 3 2 4 4 3 3 12 27
4 4 Jennifer Lawrence
Winter's Bone
3 5 4 3 3 3 5 5 3 3 4 5 12 26
5 6 Michelle Williams
Blue Valentine
4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 12 20
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Melissa Leo
The Fighter
1 1 1 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 13 57
2 2 Hailee Steinfeld
True Grit
2 4 2 1 1 3 4 4 1 2 1 2 3 13 48
3 3 Helena Bonham Carter
The King's Speech
3 3 4 4 3 4 2 2 3 4 3 1 2 13 40
4 4 Amy Adams
The Fighter
5 2 3 5 4 1 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 13 33
5 5 Jacki Weaver
Animal Kingdom
4 5 5 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 13 17
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Christian Bale
The Fighter
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Geoffrey Rush
The King's Speech
3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 51
3 3 Mark Ruffalo
The Kids Are All Right
4 3 3 5 3 4 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 13 33
4 7 John Hawkes
Winter's Bone
2 5 4 3 5 3 5 5 3 5 4 5 4 13 25
5 5 Jeremy Renner
The Town
5 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 13 21
Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 The King's Speech
David Seidler
2 1 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 50
2 3 The Kids Are All Right
Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
1 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 11 43
3 2 Inception
Christopher Nolan
3 3 2 4 3 3 5 4 4 3 3 11 29
4 7 The Fighter
Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
4 4 4 1 4 3 4 3 3 4 5 11 27
5 4 Another Year
Mike Leigh
5 5 5 2 5 4 3 5 5 5 4 11 18
Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 The Social Network
Aaron Sorkin
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 55
2 2 True Grit
Joel and Ethan Coen
3 5 3 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 2 11 32
3 5 Winter's Bone
Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini
2 2 5 4 3 3 2 2 5 5 3 11 30
4 3 Toy Story 3
Michael Arndt
4 4 2 2 5 5 4 3 3 2 4 11 28
5 4 127 Hours
Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy
5 3 4 5 2 4 5 5 4 4 5 11 20

29 Responses to “Gurus ‘ Gold: Oscar Nominations (Pt 1 of 3)”

  1. Krillian says:

    Yeah, but have they read Chris Hitchens’ piece yet?

  2. Sam says:

    I find it astonishing that NOBODY thinks Social Network will win. I might be leaning toward The King’s Speech myself, but the facts are that the PGA, a shaky prognosticator, and a few extra technical Oscar noms are all it’s got going for it. Right?

  3. darklayers says:

    Sam, it had 2 more acting nods than Social Network, so not just crafts nods. I think it’s more the kind of movie it is, and what they’ve heard from voters.

  4. lazarus says:

    My god what a bunch of lemmings.

  5. Dan says:

    “History is more weighty than popcorn,” said Steven Speilberg, after “E.T.” lost to “Ghandi” in 1982. English period dramas like “The King’s Speech” have always been the Academy’s teacher’s pets. Comparing “The Social Network” to “The King’s Speech,” in terms of writing, making you think, and entertainment value, “The Social Network” is, I think, clearly the better film. Acting, directing, writing and editing all came together to produce a unique product that is a trenchant commentary on America today. The PGA is not always a bellwether. darklayers is right about The King’s Speech being “more the kind of movie it is” accounting for why it won the PGA. Since “The Social Network” is more “popcorn” (although it has plenty of history” than TKS, I expect, sadly, TKS to win. About those two extra acting nods, though: Andrew Garfield was mugged of a nomination (Mark Ruffalo? Jeremy Renner? Please), and Helena Bonham Carter, like Amy Adams, gets a nomination every time she breathes. The remaining extra nominations “The King’s Speech” received were the “coffee table” awards that English period dramas typically get: Art Direction and Costume Design. Both films received the technical awards of greater significance, film editing (often a bellwether for Best Picture) and Cinematography. And both were nominated for Best Sound, Best Music, Director and Screenplay.

    One thing “TSN” has going for it: the most nominated picture quite often loses. See, e.g., Who’s Afraid of Virginia Wolfe, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings, A Streetcar Named Desire, Reds, The Aviator, etc.

  6. Raf says:

    I also find it astonishing that everyone seems to be jumping on the King’s Speech bandwagon after this morning’s Oscar noms. I have no clue why, because King’s Speech was predicted to have the most nomination. Nothing came as a surprise in those terms. It’s going to be funny when Social Network wins Director and Picture and all these pundits will try to backtrack.

    Secondly, aside from the fact that King’s Speech only did what was basically predicted, this type of British costume drama has won since Chariots of Fire. Despite it’s stars and resume, it does feel like a small film. Good film, but definitely not a Best Picture. Also directed by a virtual unknown here in the states.

    I’m also surprised by the change for True Grit. Yes it received the second most noms, but no editing. It has no shot at winning best picture. The Fighter has a shot if by a slim chance TKS and TSN split the vote.

    But I really still think The Social Network wins this, or Oscar will again go the way of a Best Picture winner not being remembered at all in 5 years.

    Social Network will.

  7. Anne says:

    what a bunch of sheep, this is ridiculous.

  8. Jake D says:

    Strange that True Grit jumped from 6 to 3 just with the nods- but I think it needs to be remembered that True Grit really hit the sweet spot- ballots were due when True Grit was really hitting the box office perfectly, everyone was talking about it, etc. Really, the Oscar nods reflect what was happening a week or two ago. Putting it above Social Network at this point is sort of…strange. Especially since it (in all probability) won’t win the DGA or SAG, where Social Network, The Fighter, and The King’s Speech all have an opportunity to gain steam- and True Grit…doesn’t.

  9. Vincent S says:

    Has anyone considered that the PGA may have gone to King’s Speech because Scott Rudin already won the same award three years ago? As all oscar prognosticators are aware, the odds of Person X winning an oscar are significantly reduced when Person X has already won the oscar in the past. So why wouldn’t there be the same effect within the PGA? Furthermore, if there is a “spread the wealth” bias within the PGA, it’s unlikely to carry over to general AMPAS vote because who outside the producers’ circles cares about who the producers of a film are? (Answer: no one)

  10. yan says:

    I’m still in denial christopher nolan was snub, i’m still checking my totem if i’m dreaming

  11. Sam says:

    Vincent and Raf: Very good points.

    As I said, I’m possibly leaning toward The King’s Speech myself, and my dilemma is that I can’t quite figure out why. True, The King’s Speech is a very traditional kind of Oscar bait, but as secure as The Queen was in earning nominations, who thought it would win Best Picture? I sure didn’t. Best Actress was a lock (just as Best Actor probably is this year), but Picture and Director were always going to be out of reach.

    But something *feels* different this time. Should I trust my judgment or my instinct? Probably I should trust neither and simply wait for the guilds to weigh in.

    David Poland mentioned something a few weeks ago that stuck. The people who love The Social Network most seem to be journalists. Sure enough, most of what The Social Network has taken home are awards from the media: the Globes, the BFCA, the NYFCC, the LAFCA, etc. But the guilds are usually more in sync with the Academy than they are, and the first one to weigh in embraced The King’s Speech instead. Makes me wonder. But one data point isn’t a trend.

  12. J says:

    Sam, I think it feels different this time because Harvey Weinstein is standing behind it. The man is one hell of a oscar-strategist. Who already rode four of his films to Best Picture-glory (The English Patient, Shakespeare in Love, Chicago and The Return of the King). I think he’s going to do it again.

  13. Freddy Ardanza says:

    J, The Return of the King wasn’t a Weinstein movie or Miramax but New Line Cinema.

  14. darklayers says:

    edwin drood, you’re entitled to your opinion, but I have to strongly disagree with the idea that “Inception” was edited in a mix-master. I think the dreams within a dreams were very challenging to put together, and the way they are makes sense, it’s not just random. The shots of the van, the hotel and elevator, and limbo. You might take issue with the snow level, but they’re not just randomly or bizarrely put together. There is real order that’s well done there.

  15. Vincent S says:

    Sam — Journalists seem to love The Social Network the most because they’re pretty much the only ones who have chimed in so far, with the exception of PGA. But as I discussed previously, the weighting applied to the PGA this year should be heavily discounted because of the “Spread the Wealth” factor. (I failed to mention that Scott Rudin also won the David O. Selznick award this year – a result which was already known prior to PGA voters casting their ballots. This further bolsters my “Spread the Wealth” hypothesis).
    Implicit in David Poland’s statement is that journalists have tastes, mindsets, outlooks – whatever – that fundamentally differ from those of AMPAS voters. This is simply not supported by the evidence. Hurt Locker, Slumdog, No Country, and Departed, also happened to be the best reviewed films of those years. The last time the Oscar differed significantly from the critics’ picks was Crash, so in essence the Gurus o’ Gold are predicting a Crash-style upset this year. That may very well happen if, say, Kings Speech wins the SAG. But at this point in time, the fundamentals are still pointing very strongly to a win for Social Network (in my opinion).

  16. Sam says:

    Vincent: The assertion that journalists have tastes, mindsets, and outlooks that diverge sometimes from other groups is, to me, simply a matter of common sense. Any group of people defined by profession will exhibit its own particular group mentality, a phenomenon well-understood and studied in other kinds of elections. The fact that very often those tastes overlap with those of other groups also makes a lot of sense: we’re not completely alien to each other, just approaching some things from different points of view.

    That said, I don’t disagree with all you are saying. I think it’s a credible *hypothesis* that the movie The Social Network, with its subject matter so directly tied with the revolutionization of the media, will click more strongly with media groups than other groups. But I agree with you that we don’t have enough evidence yet to substantiate it.

    Likewise, your “spread the wealth” argument is a credible hypothesis to account for the one data point we *do* have. Again, though, I don’t think I can accept it as more than a hypothesis, however persuasive, until the other guilds start weighing in. One of these hypotheses is wrong, or at least carries a weaker impact than the other.

    Frustratingly, The King’s Speech was ineligible for the WGA, so we won’t see any kind of showdown there. SAG is likely not to go for either. As for the DGA, the gurus here still think Fincher will take the Directing Oscar, so if the DGA goes for The Social Network, that might not be decisive on its own. But maybe if the technical guilds come to a consensus, it’ll tell us something.

  17. Charles Brown says:

    The Social Network is partially an age issue. We old fart existentialist followers of Sartre and Camus hate all this new age texting, face book, twitter, etc. Social Network was a nice made for TV movie. No appeal to the senses and no one to care about. The masters, Kurosawa, Kubrick, Lean, Powell and currently Malick would just shake their heads. Also what about the smarmy arrogance of Aaron Sorkin, comparing himself to Shakespeare in his post nomination comments. Contrary to what Gen Y (or whatever it is today) thinks,issues like character and individual courage do matter. Go King’s Speach, or speaking of an existential outlook and courage-127 hours.

  18. Vincent S says:

    Sam — thanks for the interesting discussion. Your insights have much more depth than my friends/co-workers, or most journalists, for that matter.

    I agree with the Gurus that Fincher takes the DGA and the Oscar as a reward for his body of work. But I’m curious to get your take on why you think SAG won’t go for either. When there is no clear consensus, I find SAG generally goes for the younger, edgier film, which in this case seems to be Social Network. (Black Swan also fits, but that film seems to be outside the current contenders circle of Social Network, Kings Speech, and True Grit)

  19. Sam says:

    Thanks, likewise. I’m guessing they’ll go for The Fighter, for no better reason than mathematics: The Fighter has three consistent acting nominees in it, two of them tending to win outright. The King’s Speech is close behind. But The Social Network is a little weaker, with only Eisenberg reliably pulling in nominations and Garfield right on the nomination threshold. Certainly it’s conceivable SAG’s Best Ensemble could go to any of the three, but if I had to guess, I’d say The Fighter. And that’s sort of young and trendy too, right?

  20. Bob Burns says:

    still don’t get why we didn’t have a guru’s last week after TSN won BFA and the GG’s.

    We should have seen the shifts and the shifts back.

    These charts are very much about us watching you guys… and your friendly competition.

    But you left out what would have been the most interesting week of the year.

    Of course TKS is the fave now. Not my point. I wanted to see how you guys predictions moved a week ago…. not the only one, I’m sure.

  21. joshua black says:

    agree with the age issue. The average age of AMPAS voters gives TKS an edge. I can’t remember how it works,exactly, but I was wondering if perhaps the gurus were also considering TKS getting a lot of #2 votes, while TSN gets some #1 and some #10 for example. Maybe this style of voting isn’t what AMPAS does, but I thought so.

  22. movielocke says:

    okay, can we have the technicals posted next? Because those are the real races, every one of the above races has either frontrunners or locked winners, so not very interesting to see the gurus.

    btw, currently only the above-the-line eight are posted.

    But Score? Cinematography? Editing? Costume? Makeup? Art Direction? Sound A&B? VFX? I really want to see what people think on all those categories and I imagine that opinions will be much more divergent on the first poll now, whereas after all those guilds hand down awards, opinion will coalesce and be a lot less interesting.

  23. Glamourboy says:

    Yes, The Kings Speech is the front runner at this point…which isn’t necessarily a good thing. Avatar was the favorite at this point last year. No way True Grit or The Fighter will win…or Toy Story 3 or Winters Bone….when you think about the one movie that BLEW audiences away…that had people talking, seeing it twice..three times….it was Inception. If The Kings Speech doesn’t win (which is might…it really appeals to the older members of the voters)..then I think Inception will sneak in and grab it.

  24. Hopscotch says:

    I agree with everything except Supporting Actress. Steinfeld’s going to take that.

  25. Logan says:

    If THE FIGHTER takes Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards Sun night, it’s a free for all for Best Picture. Fun! Otherwise, after Fincher wins the DGA for Social Network tomorrow night, the SAG ensemble will be the tie-breaker in forecasting Oscar, TSN vs TKS.

  26. Dane says:

    Lemmings is right…every single one you guys is sold on the BP and BD split? Jesus, someone take a risk.

  27. Sam says:

    Uh. Wow. DGA goes to Tom Hooper. Now THAT is a game-changer.

  28. Vincent S says:

    Wow is right. To see if Social Network has any chance at all, I looked at the records to see if there were any scenarios where a film had won all three major guild awards (PGA, DGA, SAG) and then went on to lose the oscar. That HAS happened once before, in 1995 when Apollo 13 won all three guilds and went on to lose the oscar to Braveheart. However, in that year there were signs pointing away from Apollo 13, such as Braveheart getting more nods, and Ron Howard not being nominated for the best director slot. But there seem to be no such signs pointing away from TKS this year. Since all the major indicators are now in, I would say King’s Speech is the 99% favorite.

    The only real competition left now is Fincher vs Hooper. Hooper has the winning film on his side, but if AMPAS voters choose to reward for body of work rather than the film itself, as they frequently do, then that’s a big strike on Hooper’s chances. (Although Hooper did direct HBO’s John Adams, which was amazing). Secondly, many AMPAS voters may give the director category to Social Network as sort of a silver medal if they liked both films – another “spread the wealth” type phenomenon, which is likely what happened in 1998 with Shakespeare in Love vs Saving Private Ryan. Last, and probably least, there’s the fact that Fincher is the more innovative filmmaker (case in point: the Henley racing scene in Social Network), whereas in TKS the direction is more standard. Whether more innovative directors (Fincher, Boyle, Scorsese, Soderbergh) tend to beat out more standard directors (Ron Howard, Clint Eastwood, Spielberg) come oscar time is hard to say, and its an interesting analysis that someone should do.

    Whether any of the above factors is enough to push Fincher over the top is anyone’s guess. Right now the chart shows 100% for Fincher, but I suspect many of the Gurus will jump on the Hooper bandwagon after DGA. Kudos to the ones that stick with their original convictions.

  29. Lillian says:

    Toy Story 3 should easily win best picture due to the fact that the trilogy has done so much for animation.

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