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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Buzz Klady 2

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A very Sandler opening. I was wrong about the weekend multiple based on the Friday open. And if you look at Sandler’s history, this estimate is a pretty good fit. In his comedies, he’s consistently a little below 3x Friday. The Sunday drop-off on Zohan was deep, so we’ll see tomorrow whether this estimate of Friday as 35% of the weekend is a little generous about Sunday.
It also reminds us of just how amazingly consistent Sandler is, with a lot of friends in support or not. $34m – $47m seems like a wide range, but when you are the clear front man in your oeuvre 10 times in 12 years and you stay inside that range so consistently, it’s pretty remarkable. Yes, he has paid for reaching into drama and even into family fare. And he still only has three $100 million grossers overseas… and just barely at that. But you can pretty much rely on a $120m gross from his films when he doesn’t stray.
My sense on Knight & Day is that Cruise realized he had some make-up to do and focused and went out to kick some publicity butt. To see him on Leno and Kimmel on back-to-back nights was a surprise. To see him in SportsCenter promos was… well… shocking. The problem for Fox is that the wave of publicity really broke too late. They needed to do the Tom rehab in May for the June release.
That said, the burial of the movie and Mr. Cruise is overstated. This is one of two openings with Cruise up front since Mission:Impossible 3. And as hard as they pressed Valkyrie, if you look at the 5-day vs the 3-day as a complicated distinction (which I do), you could argue that Knight is further along than Valkyrie at the end of its opening weekend. And now… word of mouth will become the issue.
Without comparing the quality of Knight to Jerry Maguire, it is instructive to note that it is the only other romantic comedy with action or rom-com af any stripe in Cruise’s career. This was a surprise to me when I noticed it. And Maguire opened to $17m and followed openings of $37m and $45m for Interview With The Vampire and Mission: Impossible. I don’t think Knight will do anything close to the 9x multiple that Maguire did. And it’s worth noting that Maguire is one of his weakest showing internationally. But let’s all take a breath and let history happen before deciding it’s outcome. I know this is not what people are doing these days, but…
Toy Story 3‘s estimated 47% drop is actually quite good when considered amongst the ranks of movies that open to over $100 million (we’re up to 16). It’s right in line with the Alice in Wonderland and the Thanksgiving-supported Harry Potter & The Goblet of Fire holds, not as good as the Memorial Day Weekend enhance Shrek 2 drop, but better than every other $100m+ opener except the original Spider-Man. After 10 days, it’s behind Shrek 2‘s number by only $10 million an di sjust behind where Finding Nemo was after 4 weekends. So… things are good.
How to Train Your Dragon passes Kung Fu Panda tomorrow to become DreamWorks Animation’s biggest non-Shrek movie ever. And TS3 will probably pass Shrek Forever After on the all-time animation list (if not tomorrow, Tuesday).
Showtime has to feel pretty good about having Oliver Stone’s documentary series coming, probably late this fall, after such a solid opening for his doc, South of the Border, which slightly out-per-screened Restrepo in spite of being on a subject that has a very small natural following. Both films are very much worth the time and money.
Please Give is doing pretty well, but it looks, in the end, to be heading to a similar gross to Nicole Holofcener’s Lovely & Amazing. In the end, the indie world is being reminded that Jennifer Aniston (in the $13.4 million grossing Friends With Money) in a french maid’s outfit and threatening to have sex on camera is worth about $7 million at the box office. I don’t know if this is a good lesson or not. But a lesson it is.

19 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Buzz Klady 2”

  1. guselephant says:

    Thanks for posting these – I think Karate Kid is around $~135M cume or so by now though.

  2. IOv2 says:

    47 percent drop off is more like it.

  3. AH says:

    Saw “Knight and Day” and really enjoyed it. There weren’t a lot of people in the theater (it was an early show) but those that were there did seem to enjoy themselves (laughing and giving advice to Diaz’s character).

  4. LYT says:

    Jennifer Aniston actually doing a nude sex scene on camera = THE GOOD GIRL. I don;t recall that being a super-high grosser either.

  5. marychan says:

    “The Good Girl” has a similar gross to “Friends With Money”. Still, Jennifer Aniston couldn’t 100% guarantee an indie film to have crossover box office success; “Management” is an example (even though Samuel Goldwyn/Image only dumped “Management” in 212 theaters with little promotion.)
    By the way, David’s prediction is right in some ways: Sony Pictures Worldwide Acquisitions Group indeed takes “Welcome To The Rileys” away from Apparition and offer the film to Samuel Goldwyn instead. (Anne Thompson reported that Bill Pohlad happily let the film go, though.)

  6. Rob says:

    I don’t remember Aniston nudity in The Good Girl. I feel like Please Give is an example of a slow expansion making sense; it’s the kind of movie that really works in certain markets. Here in Boston, for instance, it’s still playing in the same theaters where it opened May 7.
    Why didn’t Exit Through the Gift Shop ever get past 46 screens? The fact that it’s managed almost $3 million from a release that limited is really something.

  7. Chucky in Jersey says:

    “Please Give” ain’t doin’ well for the love it gets. The UA Southampton played it 2 weeks and out last month (Regal had no room in East Hampton). The Clairidge arthouse over in Montclair dropped it on Friday. The Regal Union Square in lower Manhattan drops it on Wednesday to open “Eclipse”.
    Speaking of SPC, I finally saw “Mother and Child” today. This movie deserved a much wider audience — name actors, good storytelling, a credible director — yet SPC handled it as filler to prop up gaps in product flow.
    Earth to Sony Pictures Entertainment: Fold SPC distribution into Screen Gems/Columbia distribution.

  8. IOv2 says:

    Ladies and Gents, Chuck has dropped the shtick! BOOYAH!

  9. Stella's Boy says:

    Chucky do you live near/in Montclair?

  10. Blackcloud says:

    I think Chucky lives between Philly and NJ. That’s my impression, anyway. He knows about the NY metro area market, but has also demonstrated familiarity with theaters in the Philly metro area. The latter, coincidentally, is my neck of the woods these days. Funny to think we might have been in a showing together.

  11. jesse says:

    Also, Chucky, the Regal in Union Square (which I don’t think really qualifies as “lower Manhattan” but whatever) had Please Give from the start of its run, yes? I’m pretty sure that’s the case. If not, it got it a week or two later. Either way, it played for about two months solid at that theater. How much better is it supposed to do at a mainstream multiplex in the heat of summer movie season?!
    I do agree that it seems like it should be making more overall given how good it was, how good the reviews were, but getting “dropped” after two months isn’t much to be ashamed of.
    Mother and Child, though, I don’t know… I guess that could’ve done better business but I found it pretty unsatisfying. Garcia is an intriguing director who has yet to hit it out of the park. In fact, all of his movies have had name actors, and usually at least respectable (if sometimes clunky) filmmaking/storytelling, but some of them have barely escaped going directly to DVD.

  12. LexG says:

    GROWN-UPS is the least actual “movie” in a major-release movie since the last time they let Burt Reynolds take Dom, Jerry Reed, Mel Tillis, James Best, Jim Nabors, and Ned Beatty down to the backwoods of Florida with a month’s supply of Coors to film themselves at a speedway ogling Loni on the studio’s dime.
    If you grew up watching 4 of those 5 guys on SNL, it’s certainly pleasant, but the entirety of the movie consists of them sitting in lawnchairs, dead-center in frame in front of a lake, and wheeling out vaudeville-level put-downs on each other. Mixed with the occasional “scene” where they… play board games. Cook bacon. Eat burgers at a restaurant. Play basketball.
    Armond White did his nutty-contrarian thing about it, but he’s actually not far off– It IS almost avant-garde in terms of how little of ANYTHING that constitutes an ACTUAL MOVIE is present, and yet it’s a guaranteed CINEMASCORE A that’ll get standing ovations at every show. Other than Colin Quinn looking for a hoops rematch, and Hayek and the kids losing their spoiled attitudes, it really is just a vacation video.
    But who is that SMOOOOOOOOOOOOKING HOT GODDESS who plays Schneider’s blonde daughter?
    YEP YEP. SO HOT, I actually became AROUSED when she first showed up, all tall and lanky and golden and blonde. Then CUTE Jamie Chung showed up too and they became a package deal… SO HOT. Just looking at those two was the best thing about the movie.
    Other than trying to decide who has more dubious “hair,” Spade or Kevin James.
    Or why the guy who’s by far the most acclaimed comic of this group, Chris Rock, brings up the rear in screen time, laughs, and charisma.

  13. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Madison Riley.

  14. jeffmcm says:

    “Earth to Sony Pictures Entertainment: Fold SPC distribution into Screen Gems/Columbia distribution.”
    This sounds like an obviously bad idea considering that SPC does limited-release rollouts of specialty films and Screen Gems/Columbia does wide releases. Duh.
    “SO HOT, I actually became AROUSED when she first showed up”
    How long did it take you to get kicked out of the theater?

  15. IOv2 says:

    The arousal thing was indeed an overshare.

  16. LexG says:

    MADISON RILEY POWER.
    Seriously, best introduction to new hotness since The Fox. And paired with Jamie Chang, too, so two different flavors of squack at once.
    Amazing.

  17. EthanG says:

    Best White quote this week on Grown Ups:
    “Director Dennis Dugan shows such actorly, egalitarian rapport that Grown Ups surpasses the recent French film The Father of My Children.”
    That’s right..Dugan, the master behind treasures like “The Benchwarmers,” “Chuck and Larry” and “national security”. Don’t worry…Dugan is back already in February with his next work of art..with Sandler, nicole Kidman, Heidi Montag and Jennifer Aniston.

  18. Foamy Squirrel says:

    I haven’t even seen Grown Ups and I knew who Lex was talking about – Schneider’s daughters were the most common theme running through all the articles, so I was like “Who the hell are these girls that 90% of reviews single them out as a key feature of the movie?”

  19. LexG says:

    K-STEW ALERT: THE GODDESS will be on Letterman in t-minus 40 minutes and counting.
    I’ve already caught a sneak peak via YouTube and she has SHORTER, RED HAIR, OMG SO HOT, YOU WILL BOW. Plus she seems to have come equipped with anecdotes and a sense of humor this time, to stave of Letterman’s dickish condescension from last time. Who will win this rematch? I am betting on KRISTEN to delight Dave, especially with these new, SEXY red locks.
    Thank God she’s on tonight, to correct this MADISON RILEY-JAMIE CHUNG RAGER I’ve had for 28 hours and remind me of who THE WORLD’S MOST BEAUTIFUL AND SEXY WOMAN is.
    KRISTEN = GOD.

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