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David Poland

By David Poland

BYOB – Friday, Alice in Oscarland

19 Responses to “BYOB – Friday, Alice in Oscarland”

  1. I’m trying to solidify my Oscar picks and man, I can’t decide between AVATAR or HURT LOCKER for best picture. (Mind you, it’s who I THINK will win, not who I WANT to win).
    I’m certain Bigelow will win director and that being said, I just cannot fathom AVATAR not winning best pic. But the momentum seems to be going HURT LOCKER’s way and TITANIC, which is a similar film in almost every way, already won. But since it won, shouldn’t it be the favorite to win again??
    Ugh. I can’t figure it out. Anyone else struggling?

  2. Me says:

    I’ve been convinced for weeks that Hurt Locker will win BP. It’s been collecting all the awards thus far, including the important editing one (which suggests it’ll with the editing Oscar). But I never really bought into the whole Avatar frontrunner thing. Then again, I also thought Kerry was going to clean the floor with Bush, so clearly, I’m not the best one to make predictions.

  3. anghus says:

    hurt locker
    that’s the conventional wisdom

  4. Joe Leydon says:

    Remember all those awards that L.A. Confidential won and Titantic lost? Neither can I.

  5. LexG says:

    Give it to AVATAR and Cameron.
    Liked THL a little better (and IB, UITA), of course, it’s great, love Bigelow… But AVATAR not only made people GO TO THE MOVIES AGAIN (saw it again at an IMAX last weekend and it was still PACKED nearly three months on.)
    Also, fuck it, AVATAR is the LENO CHOICE.
    Like, everybody’s all pro-Conan, pro-the little guy, pro-the nice little movie that could. THEN BAM, BOOYAH, Leno and Avatar comes in STEAMROLL over your quaint little critical favorite BECAUSE THEY ARE MORE IMPORTANT, THEY MADE MORE, THEY REPRESENT THE MAJORITY, and your NICE LITTLE GUY THAT COULD can go lick his wounds WHILE THE AMERICA NUMBER ONE CHOICE kicks its ass. OOH-RAH!
    It’d be a tale of AMERICAN MIGHT. Kind of like how everybody likes Obama and he’s a nice good guy with good intentions… then in 2012 PALIN and THE AMERICAN RIGHT are going to beat him by like 90% to 10%. Even if you don’t like Palin, you have to admire the SHOCK AND AWE of an energized MAJORITY.
    Same thing will happen with Avatar. It always rules when some GIANT JUGGERNAUT SQUASHES THE LITTLE GUY. Just like a linebacker issuing a wimpy glee club kid a massive beatdown, you can’t NOT sit back and crack up. I don’t even think it’s going to be CLOSE.

  6. mutinyco says:

    The Academy should retroactively give the Oscar to Heavy Metal Parking Lot linked on the MCN homepage.

  7. I’d love for Basterds to pull a rabbit out of a hat and take BP (along with Waltz, Tarantino’s screenplay and, oh I dunno, cinematography?) but I reckon The Hurt Locker is gonna take it.
    I really really wanna predict Gabby for Best Actress. It helps that I want her to win, but on the other hand I want Sandra to win just so we have permanent historical proof of how royally the precursors screwed this year’s Best Actress category up. No Tilda! No Abbie! No etc!

  8. berg says:

    I have my fingers crossed for an upset, any upset and it will happen … something along the lines of The Pianist getting three awards (writer, director, actor) …. maybe In the Loop for screenplay, and with ten films splitting the votes ditto IB for Best film

  9. leahnz says:

    if basterds wins, they should bring that spawn of satan fucking black poodle on to accept the statue. then it could trot off down the isle with it clenched in its jaws. that would be must-see TV

  10. leahnz says:

    re: the oscars, i always think being a nominee means more than who wins, because at least you’re nom’d by your peers, whereas in the final round every doofus gets to vote for everything (except for short docs or whatever it is), which is just a free-for-all, really. what marisa tomei knows about sound design is likely between fuck and all
    (no offence to marisa, i happened to catch ‘my cousin vinny’ the other day and she just popped into my head. i often like the supporting acting category the best, some of the most eclectic and unique performances are honoured in that loosey-goosey contest)

  11. leahnz says:

    and i should have added to that first paragraph that because everyone and their dog votes in the final round, the winners of even the more technical categories are often rewarded as part of a popularity sweep rather than for the actual skill and merit required for the specific aspect of film-making being rewarded

  12. Joe Leydon says:

    Glad to see all the Precious love at the Spirit Awards. Could this be the first year that three of the top four winners in Spirit acting categories also go on to win the Oscars?

  13. Joe Leydon says:

    Wait, I just re-checked: Only two of the top Spirit winners can repeat at the Oscars. Never mind. Looks like I picked a bad day to give up coffee.

  14. Nicol D says:

    “Looks like I picked the wrong day to stop sniffin’ glue.”

  15. Geoff says:

    Studio estimates coming from Guru and LaFinke are saying that Alice did over $40 million, yesterday – wow, looks like it will be the biggest First Quarter opening ever, probably over $120 million. Kudos to Disney because they did market the hell out of this thing – I could easily see it doing over $250 million, maybe more.
    Brooklyn’s Finest had a solid opening with about $5 million – pretty solid and it could maybe do $15 million.
    Ok, here’s the weird thing every one was kind of expecting – estimates (though this just sounds OFF) are showing that Avatar only did about $1.3 million which would be a big drop from last week. But here’s the weirder thing – it apparently dropped from Thursday to Friday???? Does that kind of thing ever happen?
    Looks like it lost only about 300 screens, but I believe it went from a lot of 3D screens to 2D screens – that has to account for much of the drop, but just seems strange for a movie to drop from a Thursday to a Friday……

  16. movieman says:

    That Thursday-to-Friday drop for “Avatar” isn’t really all that surprising, Geoff.
    In a lot of smaller markets, Thursday was the last chance to see “Avatar” in 3-D (or see it again) before “Alice” usurped it on most of the digital screens.

  17. Geoff says:

    Actually, Box Office Guru is now saying Avatar made almost $2 million on Friday, which is still its biggest week-to-week drop yet, but an increase from Thursday – those “early numbers” can be pretty goofy sometimes.

  18. EthanG says:

    300 million is more likely than not. Only two of the 13 films to open with at least 100 mil didn’t make it there….the toxic X3 and Harry Potter 4…which opened on a Wednesday.
    And both of those barely cracked 100 mil opening weekend while Alice is closer to 120….

  19. EthanG says:

    Oh…and New Moon…but that’s a 1 of a kind phenomenon…

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