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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Box Office by Klady A7/Darkness 17

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Not a whole lot more to say about this weekend.
A stat that I find a bit surprising is that Avatar is still running, in Weekend 7, a few million for the weekend ahead of Titanic domestically, which is the long legs king of the world. Titanic‘s Weekend 8 was $23 million and change… so… we’ll see…
The re-release of The Hurt Locker is… not happening. Another mistake. I will be the first one to cheer if the movie wins Best Picture, but it’s a shame that Summit found so many different ways for audiences not to experience this movie on a big screen. And of course, it’s not just Summit’s fault. The rest of the industry gave the film a collective pass when distribution rights were on the line. Searchlight could be up to win their second Best Picture in a row… and Fox overall would be in a virtual can’t-lose situation.
The real story, when all is said and done, will be that two movies that really chose NOT to compete for Best Picture in an aggressive way are the two front-runners at this point. Yes, both companies have bought ads and will buy more. But for the most part, both Summit and Fox have let the movies themselves do almost all the heavy lifting.
But I digress…

27 Responses to “Weekend Box Office by Klady A7/Darkness 17”

  1. VAN says:

    Amazing how Avatar keeps beating expectations every weekend in terms of gross. Also it seems that the actuals that come in on Monday seem always higher than the Sunday estimates. Amazing.
    I wonder when it is all said and done what the final domestic number will be…675?…700?

  2. mutinyco says:

    $1M worth of people paid to see a live broadcast of O’Reilly and Beck…

  3. David Poland says:

    Yes, Mutiny… and they mock the Avatards

  4. EthanG says:

    Could Searchlight pick a worse weekend to push “Crazy Heart” semi-wide (it’s going to over 500) than next weekend? I realize it wants to capitalize on nominations but they would have been better served by pushing it out quick after the globes than by going up against a Super Bowl that features two heartland teams…
    The “When in Rome” number isn’t bad until you realize its Disney’s only release between Thanksgiving and March’s Alice. On the flip side Bell isn’t a big name and Duhamel is coming off the cheating-on-Fergie-with-stripper scandal. On the flip side this has been perhaps the darkest release month in Hollywood history and audiences should have been clamoring for something lighter. On the flip side, Bell outmuscled Amy Adams’ “Leap Year.”
    “Avatar” is neck and neck with LOTR 3 in attendance now and will close in on Pirates 2 next weekend…

  5. doug r says:

    Looks like Avatar could beat GWTW’s total adjusted gross *

  6. doug r says:

    Any chance of a limited release of Hurt Locker if it wins? Maybe Summit can offer an exclusive trailer to New Moon 3?

  7. EthanG says:

    BTW one story that’s been overlooked is that this January’s BO is going to top last January’s endlessly-written-about record breaking January….due to “Avatar” and overperformers like Eli and Lovely Bones. On paper February looks pretty strong this year, so good start to 2010…

  8. David Poland says:

    Don’t forget to asterisk that number though, Ethan. Between higher ticket prices and 3D, it’s not really that great… especially when you compare Eli to John Q’s $92m adjusted gross!!!

  9. EthanG says:

    Haha, very funny. I don’t have the time to figure that out, though I should point out that despite the fact 2009 took the revenue record, it badly trailed 2004 in tickets sold;)

  10. The Pope says:

    Okay, how about this for an utterly ridiculous addition to the “adjusted” argument. Yeah, but then factor in the amount of DVDs GWTW would have sold… if they had TVs back then.
    Money is money is money. Try telling anything else to your mortgage provider.

  11. a_loco says:

    Ugh. If the recording of the success of movies was based on units (like the music industry), then we could have this argument. But it’s not, so relax, because unless you go into the vaults and do the research yourself, you’re never gonna know how much GWTW earned, let alone adjusted for inflation.

  12. The Pope says:

    a_loco, I think my attempt at sarcasm probably blunted my point. I am saying that the whole debate about adjustment is ridiculous and factoring in 3D prices etc is just as ridiculous; as ridiculous as trying to figure out how many DVDs GWTW might have sold. I am not calling for the success of movies to be based on units sold. I am saying that money is money is money and right now, Avatar has made more than any other film.

  13. jeffmcm says:

    Yes…but money isn’t everything.

  14. The Pope says:

    Couldn’t agree more, Jeff. And it is certainly not the way to judge a film’s merit. Heaven forbid, The Ten Commandments would be one of the greatest films ever made!

  15. The Big Perm says:

    Money is money and the more the better. I’m sure GM of 2009 was making billions more than the GM of 1920…therefore the GM of today must be a more vital and robust company, with bigger profits.

  16. LYT says:

    The Ten Commandments IS one of the greatest films ever made. As badly dated and over the top as it can be, it never fails to be entertaining for the right reasons too.
    Proof: compare it to the more modern, ostensibly less cheesy PRINCE OF EGYPT. Ten Commandments still wins, easily.

  17. LYT says:

    I should note I’m referring to the better-known, Charlton Heston version. Never seen the silent.

  18. counthaku says:

    Wow, Princess and the Frog crossed the 100 million mark despite most predictions to the contrary. At least it has that small victory, despite not meeting financial expectations.

  19. anghus says:

    film that i was surprised to find on the top B.O. adjusted for inlfation.
    27. Thunderball
    20. Fantasia (i always remember it being referenced as ‘a dissapointment’ when referenced
    34. Love Story
    42. Airport
    Both released in 1970.

  20. a_loco says:

    Actually, I wasn’t responding to your point, Pope. I meant units as in “tickets sold”. I probably should have been clearer.

  21. Geoff says:

    You really can’t discount Avatar’s success, at this point – the film has outperformed EVERY ONE’S expectations on a weekly basis, now, and will also make made profit for its studio.
    One stat worth nothing for next week and this is a doozy, as least I think: only THREE films have made more than $10 Million in their eighth weekend, only 3 – Home Alone, Titanic, and ET.
    That’s it – amazing when you think of how many big films over the ’80’s grew and grew over several months, like Beverly Hills Cop and Ghostbusters. And the three who have pulled this off are at least seven years apart.
    None of the mega-opening $100 million openers of the past several years have even come close to that and Avatar will probably do more than two times that much, next weekend – so factor in your inflation, 3D bump, whatever…..cut the weekend gross in half and that shows just how strong word of mounth is on this film. People are digging and coming back, again and again.
    As for Crazy Heart – next weekend could be tough, but Fox Searchlight is really pulling this one off – the per screen averages show really strong legs on this one and I definitely see it outgrossing The Wrestler, at this point, maybe over $30 million. Seriously, how many acclaimed pictures have there been in recent years about country music – it’s pretty much an untapped audience. I can’t stand country music and loved the movie, regardless. I think that it’s got an actual shot at a Best Picture nod, due to the love from SAG. What do you guys think?

  22. jesse says:

    I could see Crazy Heart making more money than The Wrestler, especially with the older crowd, and while I wish it no ill financial will and all of the actors in it are fine, I really hope it doesn’t make it into the Best Picture 10, at least not at the expense of other maybes like Up or A Serious Man… or even something I’m less passionate about, like An Education.
    I really did not get this movie. Bridges and Gyllenhall (and Farrell!) are effortlessly convincing and believable, but in the end, what is there to the story of Crazy Heart? Very little, for me; it plays like a softer, less dramatic, less immediate version of The Wrestler. I know it was in the works well before any of the filmmakers probably saw that movie, but I think it’s a fair comparison given the small-scale, scruffed-up-leading-man redemption stories — and Crazy Heart can’t help but suffer for it. Bad Blake just didn’t strike me as that complex or interesting, beyond the Bridges authenticity factor. When it comes down to it, he’s a pretty good guy who happens to be an alcoholic and…
    (SPOILERS?)
    … by the end of the movie, he seems to pretty much have that licked and really, without all that much trouble. Even his down-and-out status feels a little tenuous; he’s basically got people on the phone saying “just agree to this and work a little and you can get some songwriting money.” Not that it needs to be a movie about economic hardships, but come on, I need *something* a little more challenging than a cuddly version of alcoholism.
    The music is pretty good, and it’s not poorly made… just negligible.
    That and A Single Man are my big WTFs for the awards season. As with Crazy Heart, all of the acting in Single Man is fine, but it’s a pretty nothing-y movie. Ford has a good eye, but all of those arty touches, the kind of stuff I’ve enjoyed in more interesting movies, just felt like excess fussing here. I can’t believe people are saying that despite his background, A Single Man *doesn’t* come off like a fashion shoot. Really? Not at all? I mean, it’s often beautiful-looking, but it feels to me like he spent half the time futzing the hell out of the color scheme not, you know, telling his story.
    And I’m not even a big “story first” guy. But if you’re telling a super small, intimate story, lots of slow-mo and close-ups aren’t going to jazz it up with little going on.
    Honestly, I’d only be a little happier with either of these making it to a BP 10 than if Nine got in. They’re both better movies, but wouldn’t make my Top 40 for 2009, let alone 10.

  23. jesse says:

    I could see Crazy Heart making more money than The Wrestler, especially with the older crowd, and while I wish it no ill financial will and all of the actors in it are fine, I really hope it doesn’t make it into the Best Picture 10, at least not at the expense of other maybes like Up or A Serious Man… or even something I’m less passionate about, like An Education.
    I really did not get this movie. Bridges and Gyllenhall (and Farrell!) are effortlessly convincing and believable, but in the end, what is there to the story of Crazy Heart? Very little, for me; it plays like a softer, less dramatic, less immediate version of The Wrestler. I know it was in the works well before any of the filmmakers probably saw that movie, but I think it’s a fair comparison given the small-scale, scruffed-up-leading-man redemption stories — and Crazy Heart can’t help but suffer for it. Bad Blake just didn’t strike me as that complex or interesting, beyond the Bridges authenticity factor. When it comes down to it, he’s a pretty good guy who happens to be an alcoholic and…
    (SPOILERS?)
    … by the end of the movie, he seems to pretty much have that licked and really, without all that much trouble. Even his down-and-out status feels a little tenuous; he’s basically got people on the phone saying “just agree to this and work a little and you can get some songwriting money.” Not that it needs to be a movie about economic hardships, but come on, I need *something* a little more challenging than a cuddly version of alcoholism.
    The music is pretty good, and it’s not poorly made… just negligible.
    That and A Single Man are my big WTFs for the awards season. As with Crazy Heart, all of the acting in Single Man is fine, but it’s a pretty nothing-y movie. Ford has a good eye, but all of those arty touches, the kind of stuff I’ve enjoyed in more interesting movies, just felt like excess fussing here. I can’t believe people are saying that despite his background, A Single Man *doesn’t* come off like a fashion shoot. Really? Not at all? I mean, it’s often beautiful-looking, but it feels to me like he spent half the time futzing the hell out of the color scheme not, you know, telling his story.
    And I’m not even a big “story first” guy. But if you’re telling a super small, intimate story, lots of slow-mo and close-ups aren’t going to jazz it up with little going on.
    Honestly, I’d only be a little happier with either of these making it to a BP 10 than if Nine got in. They’re both better movies, but wouldn’t make my Top 40 for 2009, let alone 10.

  24. jesse says:

    Apologies for the double-post! I didn’t think it went through.

  25. Geoff says:

    Jesse, I’m not saying that Crazy Heart is the greatest movie ever, but I did really like it – it would make my top ten for 2009 and is deserving of a Best Picture nod in my opinion.
    SPOILER ALERT
    I can see your point about how easy it all seems in the end of the movie, but they make it clear that 18 months have passed before that last scene. And he was clearly in love with Gyllenhaal’s character, she has re-married, and he missed out….it’s not completely a slap-happy ending. And besides that, he had to pretty much swallow his pride and work for Jimmy Sweet – I know, not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things, but it’s obviously a big driver of his resentment early in the story.
    I really liked how the movie was lacking in the histrionics that have so dominated the recent films of the genre….Walk the Line, Ray, even Control (better movie, though)…..don’t get me wrong, they’re all solid movies and all based on fact, which doesn’t make it a completely fair comparison.
    But I liked how the story kept quiet but compelling and The Wrestler is a fair comparison, which is why I liked this better – compare that scene where Bad loses the boy in the mall to the ridiculous scene (sorry, it is a ridiculous scene, lazy screenwriting in my opinion) where a customer recognizes Ram and he cuts his finger on the meat-slicer…..both drive the stories to their conclusion, but one was MUCH more convincing than the other.
    As for A Serious Man, I’m completely with you on that one – FANTASTIC movie and I hope it gets a nod, but have a feeling that it will not. It’s a tough call between that and The Hurt Locker, but I think A Serious Man might be the best film of last year – funny, touching, creepy, unpredictable, Jewish (I’m Jewish and rarely like films that try to cater to that audience), beautifully acted – it’s right up there with anything else the Coens have done. I was actually able to convince my wife to take her to see it on her birthday and she really dug it – two years in a row, our favorite movie quotes come from a Coen Brothers movie.
    In ’08, it was “You think it’s a SCHWINN!” from Burn After Reading – I’m also an avid bicyclist and how many truly good bicycle-related lines do you hear in a movie typically, anyway?
    And last year, it was, “Just look at the parking lot…..” from A Serious Man.

  26. Avatar is set to cross the $100mil line in Australia probably next weekend. The previous highest grossing film of all time was Titanic with $57. There’s a very real chance that Avatar could double that. Amazing.
    It’s such a shame people have gone to see The Bland Victoria instead of Bright Star.

  27. movielocke says:

    Crazy Heart is good and all, but I agree with Geoff that it lacked an umph or punch to put it through to the next level. It really does play like a prequel to Tender Mercies, and when put up against that movie it comes off as fairly mediocre–but Crazy Heart is pretty excellent in most respects though I was far more impressed with Gyllenhaal, who had the difficult job of convincing an audience that she could fall for a skanked-up Jeff Bridges despite her character not wanting to get involved. I felt she accomplished a lot more than Bridges in the movie, and would be thrilled if she got a surprise nomination on Tuesday, and doubly thrilled if it comes at the expense of any of the Nine-disappointing-ladies.

Box Office

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4