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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Klady (Thanks)

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Corrected Klady chart
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There is a real opportunity for this to be the first Thanksgiving 5-day to have more than four $20 million grossers… and it could be six such titles.
Twilight: New Moon is already at $41.4m for the 5-day with 2 days to go.
The Blind Side is already at $33.2m for the 5-day with 2 days to go.
2012 – $14.7m in 3/5
Old Dogs – $14.1m in 3/5
Ninja Assassin – $$13.5m in 3/5
A Christmas Carol – $13m in 3/5

36 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady (Thanks)”

  1. Joe Leydon says:

    Who’s willing to bet The Blind Side will wind up with $200 million domestic?

  2. EthanG says:

    It has a great shot…gotta think “New Moon” is a lock to beat HP6 for #2 film of the year domestically.=(
    Sadly soft opening for “Fantastic Fox.”

  3. Right or wrong, Sandra Bullock now has a shot at a Best Actress nomination, if Warner is willing to spend the money. Plus unless Armored, Brothers, or Everybody’s Fine inexplicably breaks out, we can presume that The Blind Side will be number 01 next weekend (it surely will fall less next weekend than New Moon). Also, I presume this works very much to the advantage of the infamous Moneyball movie?

  4. Joe Leydon says:

    Imagine this: You and your spouse are between 35 and 45. Your parents (assume both sets are still alive) are between 60 and 75. You have two children — a teen-age boy and a tweener girl. Now, go back and look at the six movies David listed. And tell me: Which film is the most likely consensus choice for a holiday season family outing at the megaplex? And don’t cop out and tell me, oh, the kids and dad might see one thing, and granny might see something else… I’m talking about the one time of the year the entire family might get together to see a movie. What movie do you think it might be?

  5. berg says:

    I’m talking about the one time of the year the entire family might get together to see a movie. What movie do you think it might be?
    A CHRISTMAS CAROL

  6. Joe Leydon says:

    BZZZT. Wrong. Grandparents have seen it too many times. Teen boy won’t want to go because it’s a cartoon.

  7. bulldog68 says:

    While New Moon set some records last week, do you guys realize that THE BLIND SIDE will soon become the highest grossing sports drama of all time. According to boxofficemojo that honor currently belongs to ROCKY IV with $128M, and in comedy its WATERBOY with $161M. Way to go Sandra. Besting the likes of Denzel, Sam Jackson, and many other male centric films along the way. I’m with Joe on this one, its the best choice this week for all demographics, not that it always works, but from most of the reviews its a feel good/well made story. Everybody wins. It it gets to $200M, it’ll be the quietest $200M in movie history.

  8. CleanSteve says:

    I’ll answer BLIND SIDE only because I’d be too aghast to consider OLD DOGS as the choice.
    I’m probably wrong.
    What a sad, depressing opening for MR. FOX. I absolutely LOVED every cussing minute of it. The best Wes Anderson movie thus far. Perfect match of material and style. I’d even say it may well be in my top five of the year at this point. It’s definatly the equal of PONYO, which I also love. Great year for animation.
    Man…just loved it. My girls too. Insanely charming.

  9. movielocke says:

    easy answer, what my family of 24 consensus picked with zero dissent for the first time ever in our nine year history of a Friday-after-thanksgiving movie together:
    The Blind Side
    It was also by far the most universally liked by our group of all the movies we’ve seen.
    We’ve seen some kiddie-charmers many didn’t like (Enchanted). heavy dramas that were too long but many liked anyway (walk the line) and mostly holiday comedies that have been hit (Christmas with the Kranks) and miss (Deck the Halls) and last year’s disaster of one of the most repulsively vile and hateful films any of us had ever seen (Four Christmases), in fact instead of 30-40 people from our family going to a movie, after last year’s evilness we only had 24 that wanted to do it again this year.
    Blind Side was quite easily the best film we’ve ever seen since we began this tradition. Heck I plan on taking a date to see it a second time. The film may not be great, but it is fantastically entertaining, very charming with six absolutely winning central performances and anchored by the fabulous Sandra Bullock who has never been better (and is better than Julia was in Erin). We absolutely loved everything about the film, and damn it played incredibly well to the entire theatre. This was a movie that was playing as hugely with an audience evenly mixed from 6 to 60 as Borat and Hangover play with an audience of 17-27 year olds, it was kind of a thrill to see what amounts to a family movie have that much success with an audience.
    I hope Bullock wins the oscar, she deserves it for her work in this film.

  10. EthanG says:

    “According to boxofficemojo that honor currently belongs to ROCKY IV with $128M, and in comedy its WATERBOY with $161M.”
    Not sure why boxofficemojo doesn’t consider “Jerry Maguire” a sports drama if “Blind Side” is.

  11. EthanG says:

    Should add though that if it makes it to $180 million it’ll top “Heaven and Hell” as the top attended football movie of all time…amazing accomplishment in this day.

  12. EthanG says:

    Err Heaven Can Wait lol.

  13. bulldog68 says:

    Good catch on the JERRY MAGUIRE omission, EthanG, it should be on that list.

  14. @movielocke: Let’s not get carried away with praising Bullock’s fun performance. Not even Sandy would claim The Blind Side is a better film than Soderbergh’s emotionally complex, 70s-style advocacy drama.

  15. Geoff says:

    Just saw Precious this evening, with my wife and it was AMAZING – the theatre was packed and the audience seemed to really respond to it.
    I do not get backlash against this film – it is such a unique story about a unique individual that the racial stuff has really overblown. Lee Daniels is some one to watch – the guy has an amazing eye and the film was surprisingly tight. 100 minutes and not a minute too long….fantastic, and a lot of bigger directors can learn from that. I really have no love for Tyler Perry or Oprah, but am still rooting hard for this movie. I have to say that despite all of the raves, the backlash pieces from guys like Dave and Jeffrey Wells really lowered my expectations – I was expecting an overlong, messy and overly grim “epic” that might be the worst type of collaboration between Spike Lee and Frank Darabont. But I did not get that at all….the film is tough, but sorry folks, it’s not unmanageable. Truly hopeful ending that it earns. And Mo’Nique deserves all of the praise she has gotten.
    That said, I’ll be taking my mother out for a movie, tomorrow, and we will likely see The Blind Side. I’m curious and have always liked Bullock. I’m expecting it to be an interesting comparison between the two movies.
    And judging from the box office, it looks like The Blind Side might be taking a bit of wind from the sails of Precious – it’s still doing well, but looks like it will need some serious awards action to get a second wind and possibly reach the heights of Brokeback Mountain….blockbuster grosses along the lines of Slumdog are no longer in the cards and that’s really ok.

  16. Triple Option says:

    Yeah, I don’t get the Fantastic Mr Fox opening either. I was a little surprised when they did the NY & LA roll out and thought it would’ve gone out to more screens. Everything was so well done about it and seemingly art for art’s sake. Now I just fear more stupid derrivative schlock and this will be the example of why originality can’t be done.

  17. No matter what people think of her or the movies, you have to hand it to Sandra Bullock (and, I guess, her agent) for having the two biggest hits of her career, possibly getting her first Oscar nomination and perhaps leapfrogging (again) back to “America’s Sweetheart” title. And at 45 years old too. Take that Reese Witherspoon.
    I always seem to be pulling for Bullock. Have always liked her. The Blind Side isn’t out here – the fact that it stars Sandra Bullock means it will surely get a token release ala Remember the Titans, but also like that movie will probably flop because people outside of the USA don’t care for American football at all – so I can’t comment on her performance or the film, but I’m happy it’s doing well.
    She won’t win the Oscar, but she’ll probably win “America’s Favorite Actress” awards at some people’s choice shindig.

  18. movieman says:

    The “Fox” fiasco is both mind-blowing and deeply depressing.
    The promo audience I saw it with–comprising all ages/demographics–ate it up (which frankly shocked the hell out of me). While I wasn’t expecting Pixar (or even “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs” and/or “Monsters Vs. Aliens”) numbers, I thought it had a decent shot of outgrossing “Royal Tenenbaums” and becoming Wes Anderson’s biggest commercial hit to date.
    Option is right. The film’s fast flop will discourage studios from taking a chance on anything remotely adventurous/risky in the animation field from now on. Look for a lot more bottom feeders like “Planet 51″s in the not-too-distant future.
    Could it be a, gasp, “Clooney thing”? ? And if so, does that bode ill for “Up in the Air” living up to its commercial potential?
    Does anyone else think that “The Blind Side” could eventually hit “Hangover”-size numbers ($275-million-plus) for WB?

  19. I’d say it’s more a “british thing” and a “that animation looks weird” thing than a “Clooney thing”.

  20. movieman says:

    m not so sure, Kam. “Chicken Run” and “Curse of the Were-Rabbit” both did nicely in the U.S. and were more authentically British (and equally strange).
    It seems more like a knee-jerk reaction to “Liberal Hollywood” poster-boy Clooney (and all those “scary” things he represents to middle America) than to the film itself. And that frightens me.
    The Palin-ization of America continues apace. “The Blind Side” (with Sandra Bullock playing an idealized–and considerably smarter/prettier–version of “pitbull-with-lipstick” Palin), meanwhile, becomes the country’s most universally beloved film.
    Goodbye, “Precious;” hello Sarah/Sandra.

  21. movieman says:

    …and I meant “strange” in a good way.
    Love Nick Park’s stuff, and I haven’t enjoyed a film all year more than “Mr. Fox.”

  22. palmermj says:

    Kam’s got it with the “that animation looks weird” thing. In fact, the whole movie looked weird.
    It didn’t look familiar at all. It looks cheap, even it isn’t remotely cheap. Planet 51’s “bombing” in a relative way, too, so I sincerely doubt studios are going to veer in that direction, even though the “direction’ is hard to define. What can a studio say?
    “Don’t make a flop animated film again”?
    Most people don’t have the foggiest clue who voices a movie and I sincerely doubt the FOX News crowd, at a normal average of just under or around 3 million people a night, decides whether a movie flops or not.
    The movie is the movie and it if it doesn’t look appealing, no one’s going to see it.

  23. IOIOIOI says:

    Movie, you are really trying too hard. Put down the thinking helmet, eat a donut, and relax. Sarah Palin is just some broad, that people booed the other day. Just chill out. It most likely comes down to the animation being weird, and FOX marketing the film. FOX could not market a film to save their lives. So, yeah, FOX sucks at selling anything genre. Fantastic Fox is no different than any other genre film with them lately.

  24. movieman says:

    …and “Were-Rabbit” and “Chicken Run” looked less “weird” (and “foreign”) than “Mr. Fox” to Middle American auds, Palmer?
    Perhaps I’m reading too much into the film’s resounding flop, but there has to be a more insidious explanation why a critically adored animated movie pitched to “family” audiences–during a holiday weekend, no less–tanked so badly.
    And there’s also more to “Blind Side”‘s stratospheric success than it being an all quadrants “feel-good” movie. If it somehow manages to hit $270-million-plus” domestic–and pull a “Crash”-y upset at the Oscars over crix darlings like “Precious” and “Up in the Air”–the fix is definitely in for the 2012 presidential race.
    “So goes California” (Hollywood), “so goes the nation.”
    It’s Sarah Palin’s world and we’re just living in it.
    Palin/(Jed) Bush in ’12???

  25. movieman says:

    …although you’re right about Fox flopping big-time at “Film Marketing 101″ these days, 101.
    (I’m still puzzled by the commercial failure of “Whip It” this fall.)
    And what does that say about the (b.o.) future of “Avatar”?

  26. IOIOIOI says:

    Movie, knowing the hood like I do, I doubt people in the hood are up for Precious. They finally put out a Precious spot that did not come across as totally depressing. So I might check it out now. Nevertheless, Fantastic Fox looks weird to people, it’s marketed by a studio that could not market a hot chick properly at the moment, and it pretty much guarantees Avatar is not going to make New Moon money opening weekend. If Avatar makes sixty million that weekend. Rothman should be taken outside, kicked in the glory hole, and that should be that jack.

  27. palmermj says:

    “Perhaps I’m reading too much into the film’s resounding flop, but there has to be a more insidious explanation why a critically adored animated movie pitched to “family” audiences–during a holiday weekend, no less–tanked so badly.
    And there’s also more to “Blind Side”‘s stratospheric success than it being an all quadrants “feel-good” movie. If it somehow manages to hit $270-million-plus” domestic–and pull a “Crash”-y upset at the Oscars over crix darlings like “Precious” and “Up in the Air”–the fix is definitely in for the 2012 presidential race.”
    You’re looking way too much into it.
    You want a simple reason it bombing? The top five movies (well, not really 2012) are accessible to pre-teens and below. Kids wanted to see those movies more than Mr. Fox. You can’t force a kid to see something they’re not interested in, but they sure as hell will drag you to want interests them. Throw in Planet 51 and you have another movie ahead of it.
    Kids, not politically-leaning adults, determine the box office success of movies geared toward that age bracket.

  28. palmermj says:

    “Perhaps I’m reading too much into the film’s resounding flop, but there has to be a more insidious explanation why a critically adored animated movie pitched to “family” audiences–during a holiday weekend, no less–tanked so badly.”
    You’re looking way too much into it.
    You want a simple reason it’s bombing? The top five movies (well, not really 2012) are accessible to pre-teens and below. Kids wanted to see those movies more than Mr. Fox. You can’t force a kid to see something they’re not interested in, but they sure as hell will drag you to what interests them. Throw in Planet 51 and you have another movie ahead of it that they can see.
    Kids, not politically-leaning adults, determine the box office success of movies geared toward that age bracket.

  29. gradystiles says:

    Fantastic Mr. Fox was released and marketed by Fox Searchlight, not Fox. You guys do realize that the two have different marketing departments, right?

  30. movieman says:

    “Mr. Fox” was released by Fox not F-Searchlight, Grady.
    A curious fit, but there it is.
    Maybe Focus would have had better luck. They certainly did a nice job with “Coraline” and “9” earlier this year.
    Sorry if I’m being so obstinate about this, gang, but I keep having visions of parents forbidding their wee bairns to see “Mr. Fox” and taking them to “Planet 51″ instead because The Rock is a conservative Republican and Clooney is a–eek!—liberal Democrat.
    If it wasn’t for the “Blind Side” factor, I probably would have just dismissed the Anderson film’s flop to typically inept Fox marketing. But there has to be more to “BS”‘s unprecedented level of success than the reasons previously cited (all-quadrant; feel-good; yadda-yadda), and I really believe that Palin is the mystery factor that nobody else dares talk about. (Not even WB execs who probably can’t believe their dumb luck/good fortune that an above-average Lifetime movie is performing like a CGI summer blockbuster.)
    Call me a conspiracy theorist you like (I’ve been called worse, trust me), but this shit scares me.

  31. jeffmcm says:

    Re: Mr. Fox, I’m pretty sure it was a ‘this movie looks weird’ thing, plus after I saw the movie on Thursday my thoguths were that it was just about as audience-friendly of a movie as Darjeeling Limited or Life Aquatic – a weird, elliptical movie more about complicated emotions and without a satisfying payoff (let me emphasize, I liked it a lot).
    I find it hard to believe that there’s a huge political backlash against Clooney – I mean, Men Who Stare at Goats has grossed more than Mr. Fox, and it’s obviously more of an adult political movie.

  32. Eric says:

    The characters in Fantastic Mr Fox just don’t look like you could give them a hug. What was the last successful animated movie that didn’t have the cute factor?
    (I thought it was a really fun movie, by the way.)
    And since when has Clooney been a deterrent to middle America? Put him in the right movie and it does gangbusters, just like any other star. Put him in an offbeat personal project and it probably has a ceiling, just like any other star. I don’t think his political views play into this.

  33. Eric says:

    Jeff, stop posting my thoughts before I can type them out.

  34. Joe Leydon says:

    I would not be surprised if some — repeat, some — Sarah Palin fans see something of their idol in Sandra Bullock’s Blind Side performance. But I simply cannot accept the notion that the movie itself is some sort of stealth conservative propaganda for the unemployed blogger from Alaska.

  35. FYI – Box Office Mojo counts Jerry Maguire as ‘featuring but not about football’. Whatever.
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=footballelements.htm

  36. The animation for Mr Fox looks far stranger than Chicken Run (which also had Mel Gibson and was at a time when British was really popular, remember?) and, besides, families probably went to see The Blind Side or A Christmas Carol instead and families with younger kiddies are probably waiting for The Princess and the Frog, or just saw A Christmas Carol or even Planet 51 a week earlier.
    Too much family product and the weird looking, less familiar one got the shaft. It happens, unfortunately.

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