Archive for October, 2009
Yes… feeding squirrel-like kitten with chopsticks
Saturday, October 31st, 2009Boo!
Saturday, October 31st, 2009Friday Estimates by Klady – These Is Them
Saturday, October 31st, 2009Title – Distrib – Gross * – Theater – % Change
Best Picture Chart
Friday, October 30th, 2009|
BEST PICTURE
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Picture
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Studio
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Director
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Stars |
Comment
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| The Frontrunners For Nomination | ||||||
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1
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Dec 25
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Nine |
TWC
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Marshall
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Day-Lewis
Et al |
With all the trouble, still looking like the pedigree choice |
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2
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open
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Up |
Disney
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Docter
Petersen |
-
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Just have to keep reminding people that its okay to vote animated |
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3
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Dec 18
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Avatar |
Fox
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Cameron
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?
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Could still come up way short… but could also come up Rings |
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4
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Nov 13
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Up In The Air |
Par
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Reitman
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Clooney
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Solid contender |
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5
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open
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An Education |
SPC
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Scherfig
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Mulligan
Sarsgaard |
Old School fave |
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6
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Nov 6
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Precious |
LG
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Daniels
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Sidibe
‘Nique |
Media loves it |
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7
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Dec 11
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Invictus |
WB
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Eastwood
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Freeman
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Is it Mandela Time yet? |
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8
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open
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A Serious Man |
Focus
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Coens
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Stuhlbarg
Kind |
Some Jewish pushback, but with 10, a strong pick |
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9
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Nov
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A Single Man |
TWC
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Ford
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Firth
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Right there at the edge |
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10
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open
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The Hurt Locker |
Sum
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Bigelow
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Renner
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Will there be enough push to get the votes it deserves? |
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11
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open
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Inglourious Basterds |
TWC
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Tarantino
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Waltz
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Could be damaged by an Avatar surge |
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12
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Dec 25
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The Lovely Bones |
Par/DW
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Jackson
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Weiss
Ronan Wahlberg Tucci |
In-house word of mouth improved… we’ll know when we see it. |
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13
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open
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Julie & Julia |
Sony
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Ephron
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Streep
Adams |
Could easily sneak in |
| The Chasers (by release date) | ||||||
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open
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District 9 |
Sony
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Blomkamp
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Copley
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Sony wants to believe it | |
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Nov 6
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Men Who Stare At Goats |
Over
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Heslov
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Clooney
Bridges |
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Nov 20
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Broken Embraces |
SPC
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Almodovar
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Cruz
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Nov 25
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The Road |
TWC
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Hillcoat
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Theron
Mortensen |
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Nov 20
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The Blind Side |
WB
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Hancock
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Bullock
Bates |
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Dec 4
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Brothers |
Lions
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Sheridan
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Maguire
Gyllenhaal |
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Dec 4
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Everybody’s Fine |
Mir
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Jones
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DeNiro
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Dec 25
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Sherlock Holmes |
WB
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Ritchie
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Downey
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Dec 25
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It’s Complicated |
U
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Meyers
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Streep
Baldwin Martin |
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?
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The Last Station |
-
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Hoffman
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Plummer
Giamatti |
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20 Weeks To Go, The Rules Of Ten
Friday, October 30th, 2009The most often considered issue of this year’s Oscar race is, “How will having ten nominees change the game?”
And the definitive answer is, “Ask me next April.”
Well, even that may be a little blurry.
What I can tell you is what has happened so far, which is still very much at the beginning of the journey as far as actual awards voters are concerned.
What we don’t see so far is an earnest effort by the “big movies” to get slots in the BP10… except for Up, which Disney has out there on parade early and often. All the sky-is-falling whining about Star Trek and The Hangover and Harry Potter as Best Picture contenders has been followed by Paramount and Warner Bros shrugging their campaigning shoulders and not spending a dime or more than a minute of effort moving the bar in that direction. Wisely.
Besides Up, on the commercial side, there is a Supporting Actress push going on for The Proposal, some hints that Sony is going to push District 9 out there, and The Weinsteins may find some real BPO traction for Inglourious Basterds. That means that there are two possible movies in the BP race from the Top 20 domestic grossers to date.
But quietly – amazingly quietly – Avatar is becoming a serious Best Picture player. Fox isn’t pushing it. They aren’t advertising it. They are doing what they have done for years… sell the movie and if awards come, so be it. And no matter the media response to the teaser trailer, you can feel the ground rumbling under the earth’s crust for this one now. The movie is going to be very, very big.
Even if it fails by some standards, it is almost impossible to imagine the film grossing less than $500 million worldwide. That would put it with Potter 6, Ice Age 3, and Trannies 2 (in that order… do people realize that IA3 has outgrossed Tr2 worldwide?) in that financial category. This is very rarified air for a title that is neither a sequel, animated or based on a literary work that defined the box office future of the title… you know, what grandpa used to call “an original.”
There are sixty-seven $500m worldwide grossers in history and only Ghost, The Day After Tomorrow, Forrest Gump, Armageddon, Night At The Museum, I Am Legend, Hancock, The Sixth Sense, Star Wars, ET, and Jurassic Park qualify in that rarified grouping. Five of the eleven were Best Picture nominated. Only one won. But still…
The two tip-top contenders that have not been seen – Nine and Invictus – remain on the top of many lists, though we are still weeks away from seeing the goods (or the bads).
But the lists have filled up with some titles that wouldn’t quite be borderline in years past, whether Precious or A Single Man or A Serious Man. A movie like The Hurt Locker would have a very hard road, no matter how good it is, because of its lackluster box office run. Inglourious Basterds would have been dismissed by now as too commercial and fun.
Still, all five films, seen as favorites by most to secure BP slots, are not advertising yet… not fighting to get out ahead of the late-coming big dogs… biding their time, perhaps waiting for critics to give them a lift.
The most heavily pushed “small” film so far, amongst actual voters and not just the press, is An Education… which is now benefiting from an air of inevitability. The film isn’t world beating. But the movie is loveable, the performances are loveable, and all of a sudden, borderline contenders like Alfred Molina are real contenders for nomination because Academy members are being asked early and often for their consideration.
The question at the end of the day will be, “What was the great idea that got these movies nominated?” And every year, we are reminded that there is no hard and fast rule. And this year, even more so.
I predict that as obvious as the floorplan seems to be this season, there will be a major surprise or two in which films didn’t get nominated… because so many are laying back, thinking they can foist themselves on the voters late in the game. There are too many studios trying to play this game and someone’s going to go home with their balloon crushed (and it isn’t like to be Disney).
On the other hand, it seems to me that we are already down to fifteen or fewer serious contenders for nomination, even without having seen five of them. So that is the shading in which the contending marketers are operating. There will be some happy surprises as well.
As risky as I see a strategy like The Hurt Locker’s as being, I am also quite conscious that the film will certainly be amongst the best five, by most standards of quality, in that group of fifteen. So no matter how little is spent or how late it is spent, aren’t they likely to be in the group of nominees? Isn’t there a constituency that will just joke on quality and feel that a nomination vote spent there is not a wasted vote?
The most interesting thing so far is that it is already November and so little has really happened. Toronto came and went… NYFF after that… and very little has changed. Most of the horses are in the gate, kicking and squealing, but not allowed to really race. They are just biding their time, waiting for the industry to put together enough money to pay for the dirt to be laid out on the track, lest the horses run on concrete and break their dainty legs.
And when they are let loose, it will surely seem more intense than ever. But it may actually be just the opposite… no time for much to happen but for people to see the movies and to vote their hearts and not their heads.
Come February, there is no way of knowing how distributors will behave either. Will, like last year, one or two films become the obvious frontrunners and send everyone else into “it’s lovely to be nominated” mode or will there be a battle royale amongst ten contenders who all feel viable as every one of them has fatal flaws and winning strengths?
Ask me in April.
- David Poland
October 30, 2009
Super Movie Friends 7
Friday, October 30th, 200920 Weeks To Oscar – 20 Weeks To Go
Friday, October 30th, 2009Quietly
New Trailer for The Road
Friday, October 30th, 2009Battsek Out At Miramax
Friday, October 30th, 2009Daniel was well liked and rather effective.
I don’t know. The New Disney is really, really not going to be The Old Disney… not even The New Old Disney.
It as though Bob Iger, who for years has seemed to be playing a very, very smart game of chess in reestablishing what Eisner and Katzenberg had built after they had allowed it to overmature and ripen into too many personal vendettas and self-reflections, has suddenly gotten God and is going to try to turn Disney 3.0 into a hard-driving future-focused leader instead of being a solid, sleepy, history-considering village.
There is something honorable about Iger and his new right-hand, Rich Ross, knowing their intent well enough to not bother keeping Miramax alive as anything much more than a non-theatrical brand. (That’s what Battsek’s exit suggests… and it also suggests more to come.) But there is also something a little bit scary about a company like this galloping so intensely and almost without any restraint towards an uncertain future.
I’ve been watching the well-curated, tremendous 4-disc Blu-ray packages of Up and Monsters. Inc. and it struck me yesterday just how different the Disney brand may be soon… how many more icons will be placed in the background of The Castle in years to come.
The only good thing about this news is that it will create an even greater vacuum in the art house distribution world… and no matter how tough things are, nature abhors a vacuum. But as small as a Miramax business should be at a company like D3.0, not having one is just not smart. The future of the film business is the ability to play to ALL fields, as the revenues for all filmed entertainment gets smaller. Studios that throw away $10 million a year here and $10 million a year there are setting themselves up for dangerous waters ahead. Take a look at the history of the 1960s in the business. Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it.
Circle Of Jerk du Jour
Thursday, October 29th, 2009Gawker made a big deal out of catching Nikki Finke re-spinning her ignorance, but they make it seem like a unique event and not the daily reality of Hollywood’s answer to Rush Limbaugh… all self-promotion, all talking points fed to her by others, all rage and unearned arrogance over insight and knowledge, all the time.
But the idiocy around anyone calling This Is It “disappointing” is a classic and epic form of insider masturbation… all insiders… most journalists.
On Tuesday night – Thursday, the film will come close to matching the 3-day weekend opening of The Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience. Before this weekend is over, it will be the second highest grossing concert film in movie history with only the $65 million run of the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour ahead of it domestically.
A $30 million domestic gross for this piece of kitsch history will be a massive success. It likely means $70m+ worldwide, which puts the film about $45 million away from profitability. The big question for Sony, in terms of profitability, will be DVD sales and record sales. And that DVD is more likely than most to sell strongly… at least in the 6 or 7 million range, which would put Sony well into the black before the record sales.
Who set this up to be a perceived failure? An overzealous press – which yes, includes Rush Finkebaugh – hyping this thing into the stratosphere… overconsidering the information offered by the electronic ticker sellers… trying to draw eyeballs to their various blogs instead of thinking.
And to be fair to Darling Nikki, it is not she who needs to be smacked for listening to Sony insiders who were mouth breathing about this film last week… even if she needs to go back to Journalism 101: Don’t Be A Laydown, Use Your Brain. It is whoever at Sony told her that they were expecting the film to do better than the tracking and pre-sale based estimates. Dumb.
This is the opposite number to Paranormal Activities, where the media has tripped over its own feet to praise the grosses of the film. And indeed, a $15,00 production plus another minimum of $500,000 in finishing costs, millions spent to make prints, etc, is more impressive against a gross of over $50 million than this $60m investment in a concert film, album, and DVD. But it will still work out to be a good piece of business for Sony.
I guess that’s not enough.
BYOB – 102909
Thursday, October 29th, 2009Roger Corman, Filmmaker
Thursday, October 29th, 2009
More Fake News
Thursday, October 29th, 2009I don’t mind Paramount pushing out new stats to promote a movie. “Most Profitable Movie Ever” would be a more significant stat than “Best Friday Matinee Gross For A Comedy Starring Hermaphrodites”… if it were true.
“Most Profitable Movie By Percentage, Based On Publicized And Obviously False Production Cost” wouldn’t probably play as well. But I don’t blame Paramount or the movie, Paranormal Activity, for selling this lie of language. It is the media that sells this stuff with misleading headlines who should be embarrassed (and/or publicly flogged).
The most profitable movies released in 2009 to-date will be, by a distance, The Hangover, Transformers 2, Ice Age 3, and Harry Potter VI. Paranormal Activity will be very, very profitable, along the numbers of Taken.
Again… the enthusiasm is what drives this movie. And the media, which sells a movie like to a wider-than-normal audience, much more than Twitter or even TV ads or trailers, can be manipulated. But when we start lying outright in headlines, it really pisses me off. People want to get angry over The Hollywood Film Awards or The Golden Globes, but the same people love to roll over for stuff like this.
I apologize again if this feels like a slam on this specific movie or the publicity dept at Par. It’s not. Never has a movie’s actual content been more irrelevant to its gross. And the publicity and marketing has been brilliant in selling this film with similar skills to see a Roland Emmerich show-up-to-see-landmarks-explode film.
But when media wonders why journalism is dying, it needs to ask Walt Kelly, not just Craigslist.
Oooh Hoo Hoo!
Wednesday, October 28th, 2009This will be a quickie.
The stars of This Is It! are Don Brochu, Brandon Key, Tim Patterson and Kevin Stitt. They edited the footage together and made it coherent.
There is always something interesting about a backstage glimpse of a big talent putting things together. This is not Michael Jackson’s best work. It’s not even a full rehearsal, with the exception of one number. I have been to many sound checks that blew it out more impressively.
One thing you do get from the film is that Jackson was a person and not a freak.
In any case, for what this is, it is very well put together and worth seeing. It’s not something I would spend the time on, but that’s an issue of personal interest. If you are interested, you aren’t going to walk out of the theater disappointed, even if there will be small disappointments along the way.
One a side note, singer Judith Hill may offer the sexiest onscreen performance of the year without trying much. She’s one of those women who sizzles with the combination of looks and a clear charm that comes across on screen, much more so than in stills. And she can sing her ass off. Killer.
So… if you are going to see This Is It, you should see it in IMAX, even if most of the IMAX opportunities are FauxMAX. The experience is about feeling like you are in the room and the size and somewhat better sound make that experience all the more real.
Seacrest out.
Star Trek: The Deleted Scene
Wednesday, October 28th, 2009How Do You Deal With Scientology?
Wednesday, October 28th, 2009You know… I try to stay out of the religious beliefs of others.
And whatever you or I feel about Scientology, the people who believe are true believers… and if you want to say they are crazy, you can start lining up people who think that Judaism and Christianity are equally dubious.
The one thing that struck me, however, about both the 2-night Nightline coverage and the BBC Panorama coverage is that I have real concerns about any organization that seeks religious standing with the US government and refuses to speak about their beliefs.
When a publicist/believer explains that he won’t speak about, either to confirm or deny, the basic positions of the faith, something is wrong… really wrong. And I am saying this as someone who deals with people who cannot tell the truth, as a matter of business course, every day. I am not even talking about lying with a straight face, which some do and some do not.
Can you imagine if Christians decided that Jesus rising was not to be spoken of publicly, but was still at the center of the idea of Jesus as the third part of the holy trinity. Can you imagine if priests stormed out of interviews if asked about whether the faith believed that Jesus had risen?
Would anyone be able to take them seriously?
Like I said, what you have faith in is not my call… but when you refuse to acknowledge what you believe, it suggests a lack of true faith and by the very lack of transparency, it calls your beliefs into question.
Me? I have no problem with Tom Cruise being anti-psychiatry. That’s his right, just as it’s Jenny McCarthy’s right to be anti-vaccination. These are opinions and we should all be allowed to express ours without fear of being called “crazy” simply for having them. And we should be willing and able, to a reasonable degree, to defend our positions… or at least exclaim our faith, no matter how blind.
In any case, here is the Nightline Package -
Nightline Day 1
Nightline Day 2
And here is a channel on YouTube where you can see the BBC’s “Scientology & Me”
Also, this little bit on Paul Haggis… who seems to remain one of the sober individuals of this industry, even when we disagree on ideas profoundly. How could anyone ask more of someone’s principals?
Decide for yourself.
AMPAS Governor's Awards
Wednesday, October 28th, 2009Quietly creeping up on us is the Governor’s Awards, this year’s spin-off of the honorary awards traditionally featured during the Oscar telecast.
This show, which will be taped but not televised, is in the ballroom at Hollywood & Highland where the Governor’s Ball is done each year (since the Kodak). The honorees this year are John Calley, Roger Corman, Lauren Bacall, and the great cinematographer, Gordon Willis.
The only reason it is now on my radar at all is that I looked it up after being reminded that it was happening after I tried to schedule something with a friend who is obliged to attend. That’s a little quiet when you consider The Academy is honoring 4 true legends.
Sadly, Calley is not expected to attend due to health issues. And the price per ticket is scaring away some who you would expect to be in the ballroom… $350 a head for dinner.













