There is a lot of short-cut writing on the Disney 3rd Qtr result released today. I thought I would add a dew details to the conversation.
Disney’s fiscal Q3 ended June 27, 2009. So, the quarter is March 27 – June 27.
This year’s Q3 domestic theatrical box office is, literally and ironically, UP this year from last year. (It was down last year, a year after Pirates 3.)
MOVIE IN Q3 DOMESTIC RELEASE THIS YEAR
Race To Witch Mountain (partial) – $18 million gross
Hannah Montana Movie (all theatrical) – $79.5m gross
Up (partial) – $246.2m gross
The Proposal (partial) – $63.9m
G-Force – $0
TOTAL GROSS – $407.6m
MOVIE IN Q3 DOMESTIC RELEASE LAST YEAR
Step Up 2 – $15.2
College Road Trip $5.7m
Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian – $137.4m
Wall-E – $45.3m
TOTAL GROSS – $203.6
It’s even very close to Q3 2007, when Pirates 3 launched
Pirates 3 (partial) – $290.7
Meet The Robinsons (total) – $95.5
Wild Hogs (partial) $42.2
TOTAL GROSS – $428.4
And for the record, in anticipation of Q4…
DOMESTIC GROSSES ACCRUING TO Q4 THIS YEAR (So Far)
Up (partial) – $20m to-date
The Proposal (partial) – $79.1m to-date
G-Force – $45.4 to-date
DOMESTIC Q4 GROSSES LAST YEAR
Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian – $1.7m
Wall-E – $178.5m
Swing Vote – $16.3m
Miracle At St Anna – $3.5
The culprit, as pointed out in the Quarterly Report, is DVD. Bedtime Stories, Confessions of a Shopaholic and Bolt were not competitive, as a group, with National Treasure 2: Book of Secrets and Enchanted, which shipped nearly 17 million units between them.
But what people probably don’t realize is that Enchanted did about 12% more than Bedtime Stories at the box office. And Bolt did about 10% less than DWA’s Bee movie the least before. If DVD corrolated directly, that would mean the two titles would have shipped about 14m units with a third film (Shopaholic) there to make up the difference. Dan In Real Life shipped about 2.3 million units with a similar gross the year before. So it should be pretty close.
But it’s not.
My estimate would be about 12.5m units shipping for those 3 titles, as opposed to the 2 big titles from the year before. That’s not a quality call. That’s a strong shift in the marketplace.
So… this is not so much a defense of Disney as it is a defense against quick and misleading assumptions. In domestic theatrical, Disney is doing better this summer. In the next quarter, even with G-Force holding strong, theatrical will probably be slightly down in the next quarter. But the only division doing better this year than last is interactive, which is still losing money, just losing less.
But note… as always… how small domestic theatrical seems in comparison to the big picture at these companies, whether it is up or down. There are many more balls in the air than people seem to realize… or want to spend the time to consider.