
By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com
And One More Faked "Tightening" Poll
It’s as though the different rep-leaning pollsters are trading off on who will take the bullet for using their poll to lie about the race each day. It really is becoming fascinating.
Andrew Sullivan kicks around today’s Fox News poll with Barack Obama now leading John McCain by 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, down from 49 to 40 last week.
Wow.
Until you look under the hood…
Last week’s poll was of 401 Democrats, 345 Republicans, 148 Independents
This week’s poll was of 379 Democrats, 364 Republicans, 146 Independents
894













How is that faked? Random samples vary randomly. That’s how they work. You can argue the sample skews the result (which can then be controlled for), but arguing that the survey is therefore faked isn’t a very compelling argument. It is, in fact, the same kind of shoddy thinking you are usually so critical of.
It interesting how you’d make a case against a poll showing a 3% margin, and never mention CBS/NYT poll, which has been a consistent outlier.
The RCP poll average is about 6%. The Fox News poll is 3% off that average. The CBS/NYT poll has Obama by 11%, which is 5% off the average. Which poll is more egregious?
I am happy to concede that any poll with Obama more than 9% ahead is an outlier on that side. The difference, of course, is that the Obama campaign is not desperately trying to make the case that they are a mortal lock to landslide. And you haven
dp — just curious…where did you get the notion that henning died of aids?