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David Poland

By David Poland

Sunday Estimates by Klady


33 Responses to “Sunday Estimates by Klady”

  1. Tofu says:

    By these estimates, The Dark Knight is now the highest Domestic grosser of the year, topping Indiana Jones & Iron-Man in only ten days of release.

  2. chris says:

    Actually, isn’t “Iron Man” still number two? (Although “Raiders” is about to pass it)

  3. Blackcloud says:

    I guess I wasn’t so far off when I said XF2 would be the biggest flop of the summer. It’s still an exaggeration, but not nearly as much as it was a couple of weeks ago when I made the statement. It’s like that Serenity movie all over again, and that show was never popular.

  4. Tofu says:

    Serenity was surprisingly entertaining. X-Files 2 had “Total Bore” written all over the previews.
    And yes, Iron-Man is still ahead of Indiana Jones 4. It is becoming a very tight race between the two.

  5. The Pope says:

    At the moemnt, IronMan is $1.3m ahead of Indy. I can’t operate a slide rule and calculators are far too practical but Indy is taking in about twice as much as IronMan (500 to 200+) and so I reckon it may be just a matter of time. Come Labor Day though, it will be just academic.

  6. The Pope says:

    BTW, on another note entirely, I read in THR that Ridley Scott’s new movie, Nottingham has been put on “indefinite” hold by Universal. I can’t say that I am too disappointed. According to imdb (and they are always sooo reliable), his next picture is Blood Meridian… something I would much prefer to see than another Russelll with a sword movie.

  7. EthanG says:

    Top grossing Superhero Movies all time (adjusted for inflation):
    1. Spider-Man
    2. Batman
    3. Spider-Man 2
    4. Superman (original)
    5. Spider-Man 3
    6. Iron Man
    7. The Dark Knight
    How high can it go?

  8. Blackcloud says:

    It’ll be academic by Thursday, probably. They’ll both be several tens of millions behind TDK by then.

  9. Joe Straat says:

    Considering its relatively low cost for a summer film, I don’t think it should be a candidate for biggest flop. A flop for sure, but not in the way Speed Racer was financially. Also, having seen the movie, there really was nothing they could’ve put in the trailer that would’ve hooked the viewer in.
    What I think Chris Carter was trying to do is settle some things with the Scully and Mulder characters and the main story was more of a secondary concern (Which makes the movie constantly beg the question of “So what?”). It’s a slapdash of mystery/suspense cliches with an X-Files twist and there are silly scenes like when they duck into a building of completely indistinguishable purpose that only exists to have empty elevator shafts to fall from and pointy objects to fall on.
    But in the scenes that focus on Mulder and Scully as characters work. It’s not subtle thanks to a constant repetition of dialogue, but it creates a bridge between Mulder’s fanatic and Scully’s skeptic to where if it’s truly the end of the X-Files (And, judging by the BO, it is), it’s a somewhat suitable for the characters. The shot they have at the credits is almost comforting. Not saying the movie is an underappreciated gem or even that it’s very good, but there’s more to it than the people who completely thrash it would have you….. um, believe…

  10. mutinyco says:

    Indy won a long time ago. It wasn’t even close.
    Indy: $761M
    Iron: $567M

  11. Tofu says:

    Can’t wait to see if The Dark Knight and Quantum of Solace will be able to duke it out with Indy worldwide. Like some kind of epic revenge for 1989. One thing is for certain now, and that is that Harry Potter will be the worldwide #1 of the year by at least $150 million, if not $200 million.

  12. the keoki says:

    wow! down 52% is amazing for such a huge first number. if you just go with the fact that TDK is ahead of POTC2 by 57 mil at this point and tack that on to POTC2’s end number….TDK comes out at 480. Still low i think. I saw it for the second time on friday and thought it played better on a repat viewing. it has flaws but Nolan’s giant vision is what’s fantastic. i don’t understand people who complain that it was too long. i never felt it bog down and you got to feel like it was a real town with real problems. the lenghth made it feel much more real. but i could be completely off base. it finishes somewhere north of 500. simple math.

  13. It will be quite weird if that comes to pass, with Dark Knight being number 01 domestically but possibly number 3 worldwide (behind Potter 6 and Indy 4). I know the domestic winner doesn’t always win globally, but has there ever been a year where the ‘won by a mile’ domestic champ comes in third or fourth internationally? It’ll be interesting to see how Potter 6 does as I seem to like the book more than others. Still, I can’t wait to watch the movie with people who don’t read the books, as this story contains the biggest jaw dropping ‘Holy crap!’ moment of the entire series.
    Had Star Trek (The Motion Picture, but really just a prequel to Star Trek, but we can’t give it its own subtitle lest people think it’s a direct sequel to the terrible Star Trek: Nemesis) come out this year as intended, it really would have been a rerun of summer 1989. Does anyone else think it’s hilarious that Paramount is basically spending so much that it’ll have to double or triple the highest-grossing Star Trek movie in order to just break even?
    I always say that you should never spend more on a sequel than the original made domestically. I guess I should make a new rule: never spend $150 million+ on a sequel/prequel to a series where the highest grossing of ten films was $109 million. Nothing would make me laugh harder if the film makes the same $90 million that Star Trek: First Contact made in 1996.

  14. EthanG says:

    For certain? Are you using DP’s worldwide math from earlier this week? Either you think
    1. TDK is going to gross less Order of the Phoenix, Lord of the Rings Two Towers, Finding Nemo, Shrek 2 and Spiderman 3 world wide.
    2. You think the Half Blood Prince is going to wind up the second highest grossing film of all time (worldwide) behind Titanic. umm…

  15. the keoki says:

    do we know what TDK is doing abroad?

  16. It’s only done about $42 million overseas thus far. Obviously Warner is rolling this out the old-fashioned way, as opposed to the simultaneous attack that has become the norm with event films.

  17. Telemachos says:

    BATMAN BEGINS did more domestically than internationally… I think it did something like $380m worldwide (too lazy to go to BOM to double-check, but I know I’m close). If we assume a similar breakdown for DARK KNIGHT (not unreasonable), its worldwide gross will probably end up around $850-900m. That’s very strong, but I also think HARRY POTTER will give it a run for its (worldwide) money… the HP series has always been very strong internationally.
    I finally saw DARK KNIGHT, btw — and it’s truly astonishing in IMAX. If anyone hasn’t caught the IMAX version, it’s worth it and then some. Seeing action scenes on an eight-story IMAX screen with amazing, crystal-clear detail, is just jaw-dropping.

  18. The Pope says:

    Re: internationally…
    TDK opened in the UK and Ireland on Friday. I expect it to do huge numbers (70 / 80 for its full run). It’s not only the franchise and the expertly marketing campaign… Christian Bale is Welsh, Christopher Nolan is English and Michael Caine is a genuine Knight!

  19. Tofu says:

    Batman films, and superhero comics in general, don’t do so hot overseas. Begins only garnered $161 million overseas, but this one could double that.
    And yes to the IMAX screenings, which Dark Knight has set records on, and could be what push the film over the $500 million domestic marker. Which easily makes it the #2 domestic film of all-time. Has the offside chance of hitting $400 million by this time next week!

  20. mutinyco says:

    Bat = $440M WW

  21. the keoki says:

    that’s it ….The Bat will be the worldwide winner by the end of the year! Ethan is right. Simple math right?

  22. Who are Fox kidding with that $10.1mil take for The X-Files?
    I’m surprised nobody has mentioned the amazing hold for Mamma Mia! I’m quite surprised, actually. $100mil seems certain now. Also, Sex and the City finally crossed $150mil. Even in the face of The Dark Knight that accomplishment feels impressive. And Wall-E finally has a decent hold.

  23. Tofu says:

    Fox News reported X-Files 2 as $25 million for the weekend on Saturday. What the fuck is wrong with those people?

  24. ployp says:

    KamikazeCamel, I just realized that I’m not the only one still waiting for Wall-E. It hasn’t been released in Australia right? This is so, so frustrating.

  25. C-PhreekII says:

    Another aspect to consider is that the drop from last week to this includes the Thursday night haul of $18M. If you were to subtract that from the total so you have true Fri-Sun weekend comparison, the drop is more like just 46% ($140M to $75M).
    Really curious to see what the weekday numbers are going to be like this week. Those IMAX screenings should really help sustain it over the next couple of weeks.

  26. Yup. Not out until September. Leahnz also has to wait. The trailer screened at both Mamma Mia! and The Dark Knight so I’m hoping those two movies being huge hits can help Wall-E make a bit more money here than Ratatouille did.

  27. the keoki says:

    this week’s number’s will tell the story…if it’s over 10 on Monday i’ll be at a loss. right?

  28. Telemachos says:

    Obviously it’ll depend on Sunday’s actuals, but it has a decent shot at a $10m Monday. Probably a more realistic guess would be $9-$9.5m, which is still astounding (its main competitors grossed half that on their second Mondays).
    It should be hitting $400m sometime in the next 7-8 days (maybe 9 days at the outside) with plenty of steam to get to $460+. The question now is whether it’ll have legs to reach $500m (TITANIC is and has always been out of reach, no matter what Paul Dergarabedian says).

  29. christian says:

    Money makes the world go around, the world go around…

  30. doug r says:

    My wife and I saw Stepbrothers yesterday. Hilariously profane. Much better than Semi-Pro. Keep watching as the credits roll.

  31. martindale says:

    With those numbers, I guess we won’t be seeing much of an expansion for American Teen.

  32. EthanG says:

    Keep in mind TDK still hasn’t opened in the 3 largest non North American/Euro markets…Japan, Russia and South Korea…or France, Spain or Germany. Aka it’s only opened in half of the top 10 non North American markets…

  33. Spacesheik says:

    STEP BROTHERS was hilarious, managed to keep the laughs going until the 3rd act when the sentimental ‘plot’ kicks in – even though it loses steam it was a great time at the movies, vulgar, fast-paced, and great performances alc l around. The AMC audience I saw this with loved every minute of it.
    X FILES however was a different story. A deadly time at the movies…
    I am an X FILES fan and rushed last night to see the flick. I was surprised it was playing at one of the smaller AMC screens the theater was half full, a bad omen as well.
    I was quite disappointed with the film, a dreary, pedantic relationship drama with serial thriller overtones, obviously the film – though strikingly shot – was aiming for an existential, faith versus science motif, it seemed just over 90 minutes and lacked any action, tension or interesting set pieces.
    A far cry from the original which made over $100 million and played the larger screens, don

Box Office

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This is probably going to sound petty, but Martin Scorsese insisting that critics see his film in theaters even though it’s going straight to Netflix and then not screening it in most American cities was a watershed moment for me in this theatrical versus streaming debate.

I completely respect when a filmmaker insists that their movie is meant to be seen in the theater, but the thing is, you got to actually make it possible to see it in the theater. Some movies may be too small for that, and that’s totally OK.

When your movie is largely financed by a streaming service and is going to appear on that streaming service instantly, I don’t really see the point of pretending that it’s a theatrical film. It just seems like we are needlessly indulging some kind of personal fantasy.

I don’t think that making a feature film length production that is going to go straight to a video platform is some sort of “step down.“ I really don’t. Theatrical exhibition as we know it is dying off anyway, for a variety of reasons.

I should clarify myself because this thread is already being misconstrued — I’m talking about how the movie is screened in advance. If it’s going straight to Netflix, why the ritual of demanding people see it in the theater?

There used to be a category that everyone recognized called “TV movie” or “made for television movie” and even though a lot of filmmakers considered that déclassé, it seems to me that probably 90% of feature films fit that description now.

Atlantis has mostly sunk into the ocean, only a few tower spires remain above the waterline, and I’m increasingly at peace with that, because it seems to be what the industry and much of the audience wants. We live in an age of convenience and information control.

Only a very elite group of filmmakers is still allowed to make movies “for theaters“ and actually have them seen and judged that way on a wide scale. Even platform releasing seems to be somewhat endangered. It can’t be fought. It has to be accepted.

9. Addendum: I’ve been informed that it wasn’t Scorsese who requested that the Bob Dylan documentary only be screened for critics in theaters, but a Netflix representative indicated the opposite to me, so I just don’t know what to believe.

It’s actually OK if your film is not eligible for an Oscar — we have a thing called the Emmys. A lot of this anxiety is just a holdover from the days when television was considered culturally inferior to theatrical feature films. Everybody needs to just get over it.

In another 10 to 20 years they’re probably going to merge the Emmys in the Oscars into one program anyway, maybe they’ll call it the Contentys.

“One of the fun things about seeing the new Quentin Tarantino film three months early in Cannes (did I mention this?) is that I know exactly why it’s going to make some people furious, and thus I have time to steel myself for the takes.

Back in July 2017, when it was revealed that Tarantino’s next project was connected to the Manson Family murders, it was condemned in some quarters as an insulting and exploitative stunt. We usually require at least a fig-leaf of compassion for the victims in true-crime adaptations, and even Tarantino partisans like myself – I don’t think he’s made a bad film yet – found ourselves wondering how he might square his more outré stylistic impulses with the depiction of a real mass murder in which five people and one unborn child lost their lives.

After all, it’s one thing to slice off with gusto a fictional policeman’s ear; it’s quite another to linger over the gory details of a massacre that took place within living memory, and which still carries a dread historical significance.

In her essay The White Album, Joan Didion wrote: “Many people I know in Los Angeles believe that the Sixties ended abruptly on August 9, 1969, ended at the exact moment when word of the murders on Cielo Drive traveled like brushfire through the community, and in a sense this is true.”

Early in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, as Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt’s characters drive up the hill towards Leo’s bachelor pad, the camera cranes up gently to reveal a street sign: Cielo Drive. Tarantino understands how charged that name is; he can hear the Molotov cocktails clinking as he shoulders the crate.

As you may have read in the reviews from Cannes, much of the film is taken up with following DiCaprio and Pitt’s characters – a fading TV actor and his long-serving stunt double – as they amusingly go about their lives in Los Angeles, while Margot Robbie’s Sharon Tate is a relatively minor presence. But the spectre of the murders is just over the horizon, and when the night of the 9th finally arrives, you feel the mood in the cinema shift.

No spoilers whatsoever about what transpires on screen. But in the audience, as it became clear how Tarantino was going to handle this extraordinarily loaded moment, the room soured and split, like a pan of cream left too long on the hob. I craned in, amazed, but felt the person beside me recoil in either dismay or disgust.

Two weeks on, I’m convinced that the scene is the boldest and most graphically violent of Tarantino’s career – I had to shield my eyes at one point, found myself involuntarily groaning “oh no” at another – and a dead cert for the most controversial. People will be outraged by it, and with good reason. But in a strange and brilliant way, it takes Didion’s death-of-the-Sixties observation and pushes it through a hellfire-hot catharsis.

Hollywood summoned up this horror, the film seems to be saying, and now it’s Hollywood’s turn to exorcise it. I can’t wait until the release in August, when we can finally talk about why.

~ Robbie Collin