MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

Dough Nut …

July 29, 2007
Weekend Estimates
Domestic Market Share

“Why,” asks Homer Simpson rhetorically, “would anyone go to the theater to see something they could see on TV?” Answer (diplomatically): Because it’s bigger, man.

The Simpsons Movie earned its big screen stripes with an estimated $71.2 million, roughly 40% of all ticket sales in the domestic marketplace. The unlikely American sweethearts created a sizeable boost in movie going leaving a trio of other national debuts scurrying for spill over business.

The kitchen romantic comedy No Reservations basted together a respectable $11.5 million to rank sixth but other newcomers suffered from the competition. The Lindsay Lohan chiller I Know Who Killed Me (why would anyone go to the theater to see something they could see on TV) eked out $3.4 million and the golf comedy Who’s Your Caddy? nipped into the top 10 with $2.8 million.

The frame also saw a torrent of limited releases including good results of $30,400 for French import Moliere in six venues and a single screen gross of $17,100 for This is England. The frame was heavy with non-fiction fare that ranged from Iraq (No End in Sight) and Darfur (The Devil Came on Horseback) to Vietnam protest (The Camden 28), ecology (Arctic Tale) and a bygone Hollywood scandal (Girl 27).

It was clear that The Simpsons Movie would be the top ranked film in the marketplace but none of the industry’s tracking services saw a top end of more than $55 million and most predicted about $10 million lower. Obviously its considerable fan base couldn’t wait to see the yellow-faced clan and put down enough change to generate the third highest opening gross for an animated feature behind the second and third installments of Shrek.

And if there was any question of the series’ global reach, its launch in 71 international territories silenced that discussion. Sunday estimates are projecting a $96 million gross with record-breaking animation openings in Germany and Australia and not too shabby returns in England, France, Spain and Korea.

Marking on the curve, both I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry and Hairspray‘s second weekend’s held well. The overall weekend total approached $180 million for a 17% hike from the immediate prior frame. It exceeded the 2006 tally by 39% when Miami Vice debuted to $25.7 million. The current season has evidenced a strong second wind that should continue with upcoming third installments of Rush Hour and Bourne in the wings.

No Reservations, based on the German film Mostly Martha, positioned itself as an adult alternative to The Simpsons and audiences decided to nibble on its modest offerings. However, Sony approached I Know Who Killed Me like a hot potato when its headliner Lindsay Lohan received a harsh media spotlight for her extracurricular activity.

There was also scant interest for Who’s Your Caddy?, an unofficial update of Caddyshack with the country club intruder coming from the ranks of rap music.

The session also saw good but not great expansions for both Rescue Dawn and Sunshine. In the present crowded marketplace it’s unlikely either of the highly lauded pictures has a chance of upping the ante as high as 1,000 playdates.

In the niches there were a number of surprises that included a potent single screen gross of $23,600 for the American indie Transformation and the aptly titled Iraq war documentary No End in Sightgenerating a roughly $15,000 screen average from two venues.

– Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates – July 27-29, 2007

Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% chang
Theater
Cume
The Simpson Movie
Fox
71.2 (18,160)
3922
71.2
I Now Pronounce You Chuck &
Uni
19.1 (5,470)
-44%
3501
71.7
Harry Potter & the Order of the
WB
17.3 (4,320)
-47%
4005
242
Hairspray
New Line
15.6 (5,000)
-43%
3121
59.4
Transformers
Par
11.5 (3,430)
-44%
3349
284.5
No Reservations
WB
11.5 (4,730)
2425
11.5
Ratatouille
BV
7.3 (2,470)
-33%
2934
179.7
Live Free or Die Hard
Fox
5.2 (2,310)
-26%
2271
125
I Know Who Killed Me
Sony
3.4 (2,550)
1320
3.4
Who’s Your Caddy?
MGM
2.8 (2,790)
1019
2.8
Rescue Dawn
MGM
1.5 (3,040)
334%
500
2.8
License to Wed
WB
1.3 (810)
-63%
1610
41.7
Sunshine
Searchlight
1.2 (2,690)
410%
460
1.6
Knocked Up
Uni
1.1 (1,440)
-50%
792
145.1
1408
MGM
1.1 (1,090)
-59%
981
69.9
Evan Almighty
Uni
1.0 (1,020)
-60%
1010
96.2
Sicko
LGF/Alliance
1.0 (1,190)
-48%
850
21.3
Talk to Me
Focus
.77 (6,690)
116%
115
1.9
Shrek the Third
Par
.53 (1,160)
38%
455
319.7
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$174.50
% Change (Last Year)
39%
% Change (Last Week)
17%
Also debuting/expanding
Moliere
Sony Classics
30,400 (5,070)
6
0.03
No End in Sight
Magnolia
29,900 (14,950)
2
0.03
Transformation
Reel Diva
23,650 (23,650)
1
0.02
Arctic Tale
Par Vantage
19,350 (4,840)
4
0.02
This is England
IFC
17,200 (17,200)
1
0.02
The Devil Came on Horseback
Break Thru
10,050 (10,050)
1
0.01
The Camden 28
1st Run
3,600 (3,600)
1
0.01
Girl 27
Westlake
2,100 (2,100)
1
0.01

Top Domestic Grossers: To July 26, 2007

Title
Distributor
Gross
Spider-Man 3
Sony
335,798,600
Shrek the Third
Par
319,201,132
Pirates of the Caribbean: At
BV
306,483,088
Transformers
Par
273,034,005
Harry Potter & the Order of th
WB
224,706,129
300
WB
210,702,543
Ratatouille
BV
172,448,802
Wild Hogs
BV
168,100,227
Knocked Up
Uni
143,935,350
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silve
Fox
129,289,364
Night at the Museum *
Fox
125,041,114
Live Free or Die Hard
Fox
119,777,661
Blades of Glory
Par
118,542,791
Ghost Rider
Sony
117,257,346
Ocean’s Thirteen
WB
115,077,496
Meet the Robinsons
BV
97,206,741
Norbit
Par
95,908,391
Evan Almighty
Uni
95,186,730
Bridge to Terabithia
BV
82,361,273
Disturbia
Par
79,970,004
* does not include 2006 box office

Domestic Market Share: To July 26, 2007

Distributor (Releases)
Gross
Market Share
Paramount (14)
1123.9
19.70%
Sony (17)
881.3
15.50%
Buena Vista (14)
872.5
15.30%
Warner Bros. (21)
872.1
15.30%
Fox (15)
530.1
9.30%
Universal (12) 513.2 9.00%
MGM (14) 180.3 3.20%
New Line (7) 152.7 2.70%
Lions Gate (12) 120.9 2.10%
Fox Searchlight (11) 83.5 1.50%
Focus (4) 53.5 0.90%
Picturehouse (3) 45.8 0.80%
Miramax (6) 44.3 0.80%
Par Vantage (4) 34.5 0.60%
Sony Classics (12) 33.2 0.60%
Other * (157) 154.4 2.70%
* none greater than 0.5% 5696.2 100.00%

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Klady

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“Most of these women were in their early twenties. Most of them refused to go any further with him, but a few went to dinner, or to some sort of casting situation, or to someplace private… if the stories were just about some crazed sex addict who approaches thousands of women on the street trying to get laid, I wouldn’t be posting this now. I don’t want to be attacking every Hollywood douchebag who hits on countless women. That type of behavior isn’t cool, but I think it’s important to separate douchebaggery from any kind of sexual coercion. But the women I talked to who DID go someplace private with Toback, told stories that were worse than the women only accosted on the street… So I did what I could do in my impotent state – for over twenty years now, I’ve been bringing up James Toback every chance I could in groups of people. I couldn’t stop him, but I could warn people about him… I’ve been hoping the Weinstein/O’Reilly stuff would bring this vampire into the light (him and a couple others, frankly). So I was happy today to wake up to this story in the L. A. Times.”
~ James Gunn

“BATTLE OF THE SEXES: Politics and queerness as spectacle/spectacle as politics and queerness. Pretty delightful, lovely, erotic. A-

“Not since EASY A and CABARET have I seen Emma Stone give a real sense of her range. Here, she has pathos and interiority and desire. I love the cinematography and the ways in which the images of the tennis icons are refracted and manipulated via various surfaces/mediators. Also, wild how a haircut is one of the most erotic scenes in cinema this year. Spine tinglingly tactile that feels refreshing. Proof that *cough* you don’t need to be ~graphic/explicit~ to be erotic *cough*. Also, it made me want to get into tennis. Watching it, at least.

“There are interesting touches and intimations as to the cinematic nature of sports, & unpacking the formal approach of broadcasting sports.Also, I was here for Sarah Silverman smoking. And also, hi Mickey Sumner!! It’s a really interesting film about the ways in which public spectacle is never apolitical, and how spectacle is prone to assignation.

“There’s this one other scene from BATTLE OF THE SEXES that I love, and it’s the one in the bar. You see Billie looking after Marilyn as she dances. Through a crowd. There’s a paradoxical closeness and distance between them. In the purple light, and the kitschy decor, everything is distorted. But Billie catches a glance and you can feel the nervous swell inside.”
~ Kyle Turner