20 Weeks: The Sequel
The point of this column is not to shovel dirt on the past, but to look to the quite immediate future. There is an entire summer ahead of us that looks a lot like one of the strongest summers ever without The Big Three being any more than The Big One.
Last summer, it was Pirates 2 followed by Cars in #2 slot with $244 million domestic. In 2005, it was Star Wars 6/III followed by $234 million domestic for War of the Worlds. In 2004, it was Shrek 2 and Spider-Man 2 in the ether and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban with $250 million domestic in third.
The closest thing to this summer was 2002, with Finding Nemo and The Matrix Reloaded huge in May and Pirates of the Caribbean huge in July with Bruce Almighty at $243 million for #4 and X2 with $215 million domestic at #5. But that was so very different also. Nemo opened to “just” $70 million and did almost 5 times that opening. Bruce Almighty was a surprise with a $68 million opening and about 3.5 times that total domestic.
The rest…
Pirates, Reloaded, Nemo = summer of 2003. 2002 was the summer Spidey snared the Clones in his web.
Here’s my question: in the past big years, the May movies have propelled the rest of the summer. Is it possible that this summer has been so front-loaded with the three huge openings, joined with the possibility that the three sequels seem to be not-universally liked, that we may have early tentpole fatigue? I know that after this month I think I can handle one more HUGE movie (which will probably be Transformers, sorry Fox) and otherwise I’m in the mood for some small comedies and dramas.
I can’t bring myself to see FF2, although the advertising so far does make it seem much better than the first. Heck, I snuck in to the first, and I wanted my money back. Maybe after I see Transformers, I’ll go see FF. There’s a plan. At least one of those films has to be worth $11 right?
The only “big” movies left that I’m interested in are Ocean’s 13 (’cause that’s just plain fun + eye candy!), Bourne3, and Harry POtter. Transformers? ugh! And FF2? The first one was so bad, the actors just didn’t fit in their characters (especially Alba who just looks plain wrong in a blond wig).
“Is it possible that this summer has been so front-loaded with the three huge openings, joined with the possibility that the three sequels seem to be not-universally liked, that we may have early tentpole fatigue?”
Only for the termite-ridden, black mold-sporing, splintery tentpoles. If something could come along and send people out of the theater exicited and gratified instead of weary and disappointed then the front-loading wouldn’t be such a problem. I don’t think the size of the movie is the problem here as much as lazy writing and ridiculously bloated running times.
I hate that I constantly defend such a terrible looking movie, but License to Wed will make at least three times the predicted $13 million. Also, I would dance a jig if Superbad did $95 mill, but that’s gonna be really tough.