MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Sunday Estimates by Klady

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21 Responses to “Sunday Estimates by Klady”

  1. anghus says:

    64% drop for Grindhouse.
    ouch.
    Perfect Stranger.
    ouch.
    Shai Lebouff.
    Hooray.

  2. Rob says:

    Does Klady really think Aqua Teen Hunger Force suffered from competition from Firehouse Dog and Meet the Robinsons? It’s, um, not that kind of cartoon…

  3. Stella's Boy says:

    I don’t understand all the love for Disturbia. It is a completely ordinary flick with a laughably stupid conclusion. It isn’t the least bit suspenseful. One of those times when I feel like I saw a totally different movie.

  4. EDouglas says:

    Love the new look for the charts.

  5. Does Klady really think Aqua Teen Hunger Force is called Aqua Teen Hunger Team?

  6. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Don’t forget the nor’easter that’s still flooding the Northeast. Overall BO would have been higher had there not been all that rain.

  7. RoyBatty says:

    I love how all the GRINDHOUSE excuses have turned into crickets chirping now that it’s unavoidable that the film has terrible word-of-mouth. No Easter holiday, no “middle America doesn’t get it”, no bad/mismarketing.
    People see it, people don’t like it, people tell others to steer clear. End of story until DVD, where I expect it will finally eek out a small profit.

  8. Hopscotch says:

    I try not to let certain “real life” things effect my movie purchasing decisions. Granted, there are many jerk offs in the film business, in front of and behind of the camera, they make great movies and you respect them, but if you had to sit next to them in a car for five minutes you might go insane…
    Shia Lebouf is one of the BIGGEST PRICKS i’ve had to encounter in LA. I’m not handing over money to see shit he’s in. PERIOD.

  9. jesse says:

    RoyBatty, I think you oversimplify greatly by characterizing Grindhouse’s “terrible” word-of-mouth as “unavoidable.” For one, I think we’re long past the point of a 50%+ fall indicating lousy word-of-mouth. Obviously, stellar word-of-mouth can help stave off those larger drops, but almost every franchise/geek/young-guy-appealing movie has a big second-weekend drop. People take second-weekend drops as word-of-mouth gospel, but every X-Men movie opened big and dropped off pretty fast, to name just one example. Even something cruddier like a Resident Evil movie — are big second-weekend drops there because 17-year-olds rush out on the first Friday, or because 17-year-olds are texting each other for the next week saying “WARNING: do not go see the new Milla Jovovich zombie action movie!!! It wasn’t as good as The Lives of Others!!!”?
    Second, I’d say Grindhouse suffered from bad press more than “bad word-of-mouth,” per se. That’s not to say that everyone who saw it loved it, but I’m guessing GH, like 75% of movies out there, didn’t really have a “general consensus” among “the regular moviegoers.” I would guess far more people were turned off from seeing it by reading all of the press about how it’s not a hit. It’s hard to recover from that; your average moviegoer isn’t going to read an article about how a movie *isn’t* a hit and say, hey, I need to check that out, the same way that no one reads articles about a great TV show no one’s watching and say “hey, I need to watch Arrested Development/Veronica Mars/30 Rock.” I think (and I admit I have no way of proving this) that there’s a simple-minded “loser” stigma among critically championed/just-plain-awesome stuff like this.
    Obviously, there was not a big market for Grindhouse and the movie is not a hit, but it’s so odd to me that there’s apparently a scientific formula where big drop is uneqivocally said to indicate poor word-of-mouth, even though WOM is so difficult to measure. To put it another way: lack of GREAT word-of-mouth isn’t really the same as “terrible word-of-mouth.” I’d say most movies aren’t affected one way or the other.

  10. jeffmcm says:

    I loved Grindhouse, but even I wouldn’t give it a strong recommendation to 75% of the people I know.

  11. Hopscotch says:

    I just want Grindhouse to go away. I’m sick of hearing about, discussing it, listening to people analyze it. It’s a film for a very slim niche, and it never attracted anyone outside of it. boo hoo.

  12. jesse says:

    jeffmcm, that’s kinda what I’m saying — I don’t think people are as effusive about giving a clear thumbs-up/thumbs-down verdict to friends and family, nor do I think said friends and family are particularly apt to follow said theoretical verdicts, as the “word-of-mouth”-obsessed would have you believe. And, as Hopscotch points out, this is probably a case of a pretty limited audience: the people who want to see it, saw it. Some of ’em liked it, some of ’em didn’t, some of ’em were mixed (probably even moreso than usual given that the movie is really two movies). That number of interested people just wasn’t enough to make bank. I’m a little surprised more Kill Bill/Sin City fans didn’t turn out, but then again, if you go by second-weekend drops, no one liked *those* movies, either.

  13. David Poland says:

    You know, Gigli wasn’t as bad as it was made out to be. Either was Ishtar. Unless word of mouth goes strongly against the media trend, bad media coverage wins these showdowns.
    The thing about Grindhouse was still that it was too long to cross over past the geeks. 3 hours of ironic crap – not the quality of the film but the intene – needs champions and great buzz to build muhc past where they got… which Kill Bill and Sin City had. Blaming Easter or the weather is silly.
    It’s not unlike the Swift Boating of John Kerry. It may not have been true, but people were predisposed to believing it and that is why it was so effective. Here, with the long running time and the geeky enthusiasm for its intentional ugliness, the bigger audience was on the fence waiting to fall off. And fall they did.

  14. RoyBatty says:

    jesse – not only do you ironically oversimplify my post, but the specifics of word-of-mouth in relation to GH as well.
    The “unavoidable” part of my post was the acknowlegment that film has bad word of mouth. Period. Even the few fans the film has give a mixed message, usually praising one half or the other (or just the fake trailers).
    The examples you cite about second weekend drop offs were for films with both better first weekends and better per-theater-averages. The second DAY of GH’s release was showing a disturbing pattern of falloff far outside what other film’s were experiencing. While THE REAPING managed a less that ONE percent drop, GH plunged 19%. What’s going to be the excuse next week when it falls another 60 – 80%? Oh, wait, I can hear it now “They dropped it from X-number of theaters.”
    And it suffers from the fact that the core audience they needed (regardless of the fact they didn’t even know what a grindhouse film was) were exactly the type to start texting their buddies with “4GET IT, SUX!!!” on their way out the door if not from the auditorium itself.

  15. RoyBatty says:

    Hopscotch – a limo driver friend has the same problem with Lauren Bacall, who among veteran drivers has probably one of the worst reputations for being a complete horror to deal with. He refuses to watch any film of hers, regardless of its renown. He told me they once assigned a very well experienced driver, older gent who was always pleasant and cheerful, never complained about any clients, never cursed. He came back and said “I don’t want to ever drive that bitch again.”
    As to the GRINDHOUSE discussions, deal with it. Not only are we in a slow film news cycle, but the implosion of this film is pretty interesting considering the filmmakers behind it. Neither have suffered this level of box office failure before and the bloated nature of the production automatically brings out the schadenfreude of hubris brought back to humble earth.

  16. jeffmcm says:

    Even where little hubris existed.

  17. Hopscotch says:

    RoyBatty, I’m sure there a million examples of experiences just like that, and it’s one of those things where you can admire someone’s work but don’t “like” them because of their personal life. For the Lebeoff kid, he made a very close friend of mine’s job very hectic because of his ego and lack of courtesy, so I say fuck him. Am I going to skip Indy IV? course not. So there you have it, I’m contradicting myself on four fronts.
    You are right Grindhouse had me fooled it was going to be a huge hit, so that’s interesting to a point. But I feel it’s received way too much attention.
    A topic that I think it much more interesting is the explosion of budgets this year far more than last year. You know Bourne Ultimatum is still SHOOTING PRINCIPAL. Evan’s budget doubled. Pirates and Spidey 3 are north of $300M, now that’s worth examining.

  18. jesse says:

    RoyBatty, I’m confused about where I oversimplified anything you said. You say:
    “The “unavoidable” part of my post was the acknowlegment that film has bad word of mouth. Period.”
    Uh, I understand that. My whole point is that the mythical “bad word-of-mouth” you speak of (and others speak of all the time) is *not* undeniable and is *not* a cold hard fact. Period. Your only real evidence of bad WOM is the second-weekend drop, and I explained why I don’t think a second-weekend drop is necessarily indicative of that (even for a movie that totally sucks). I think it’s entirely possible for a lot of people to not be *interested* in seeing a movie and WOM not really factoring into it.
    “Even the few fans the film has give a mixed message, usually praising one half or the other (or just the fake trailers).”
    So your essential argument is that only a handful of people liked the movie at all, and even them mostly just liked one or the movies or even just some of the fake trailers?? You might as well say not a single person liked it, which is about as plausible as saying a movie’s “fans” liked about five minutes of a three-hour total. You can’t use conjecture to prove some more conjecture true.
    “The second DAY of GH’s release was showing a disturbing pattern of falloff far outside what other film’s were experiencing. While THE REAPING managed a less that ONE percent drop, GH plunged 19%”
    To me, this makes the “word of mouth” argument weaker, not stronger. This supposes that people came from from their 7PM Friday shows, what, called all their friends who were planning to go on Saturday and warned them away? “Guys, we gotta cancel our plans… Charlie just texted and said he saw Grindhouse last night and he didn’t like it.” I just don’t believe that actually happens. I think it’s far more likely that the few people who were really into seeing that movie went out and did so on Friday, and by Saturday the potential audience was already drying up.
    Friday sales themselves weren’t especially strong, so there wasn’t much general-audience interest to cushion it from the typical geek-movie Saturday downturn, which seems a lot more common than the dubious, hard-to-prove concept of “word of mouth.” X-Men 3 fell 29% on the Saturday after its opening and I’m pretty sure Sin City and X2 did, too (among others). As I said (or meant to say) before, this model where a drop-off means angry/dissatisfied audiences has become obsolete. Movies, especially geek-appeal movies, are way more frontloaded now.
    “What’s going to be the excuse next week when it falls another 60 – 80%? Oh, wait, I can hear it now “They dropped it from X-number of theaters.””
    Uh, yeah, actually, that will be true (that it will be dropped from theaters, it being kind of a box-office bomb and all). And also, as I said, people are not particularly interested in seeing this movie. There’s not a big audience for it. It’s got a lot of bad press. It’s dead, move on to the next thing, etc. But none of that really has anything to do with the “word of mouth” you (and many others) describe as being all-important to a movie’s success. Certain types of movies, yes, certainly benefit from *positive* word of mouth. But I’d say that for 80% or more, it’s not really a factor.
    I’m not “making excuses.” The movie is pretty much a flop. But do you really think audiences are so discerning and picky that all movies that flop are undone by word-of-mouth? Lack of interest, yes. Text messages and watercooler talk, no.

  19. jeffmcm says:

    Also, none of the word of mouth changes that it’s a very enjoyable movie.

  20. Rob says:

    Jesse is my new favorite MCN poster.

  21. He’s been around for a while, I believe.

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