The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies
MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

Hog Wild …

March 4, 2007
Weekend Estimates
Domestic Market Share

It was the snort of approval for Wild Hogs and – in the words of Borat – not so much for Zodiac. The two freshmen entries debuted in the top two slots for weekend moviegoers with respective estimated grosses of $38.1 million and $12.9 million. Overall business saw a noticeable boost from 2006 but through the first two months of the year box office was trailing last year by 3%.

Once again a low brow comedy proved to be just what the public craved. The yarn of aging hipsters hitting the road to recapture youthful ardor, Wild Hogs was expected to lead the frame. However, trackers projected no more than a $30 million bow with low enders off by close to 50% on their estimates.

It was a reverse prognosis for Zodiac, based on the true life serial killings that haunted the Bay area more than three decades ago. Upbeat reviews and pedigree credits suggested an opening between $16 million and $19 million despite its 160 minute running length. The studio is hoping word-of-mouth will translate into minimal erosion in the coming weeks.

Weekend revenues should clock in at close to $120 million for a 5% boost from Oscar weekend. Box office was 19% improved from 2006 when the $12.6 million second weekend of Medea’s Family Reunion edged out the $11.8 million launch of 16 Blocks.

The prior weekend debs The Number 23 and Reno 911!: Miami each saw 50% plus drops but most holdover titles experienced 33% to 40% erosion.

Once again there wasn’t much of an Oscar boost factor on the viewing landscape. Dreamgirls saw marginal improvement and Pan’s Labyrinth experienced a very slight decline. Both The Last King of Scotland and foreign-language winner The Lives of Others added theaters and had box office increases.

Activity in regard to new limited releases was largely unimpressive with the exception of the two and one-hour French documentary Into Great Silence that grossed $10,900 on a single screen. The profile of a religious monastery has been a niche success in Europe and has tallied close to $150,000 since its release in Canada in the late fall.

Other new openers including the coming-of-ager Full of It and the French animated import Azur et Asmar in Quebec generated theater averages of less than $1,000. The Sally Field warmity Two Weeks that had an Oscar qualifying run in December did marginally better with a $30,300 gross from 12 venues.

- Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates – March 2-4, 2007

Title
Distributor
Gross (averag
% chang
Theaters
Cume
Wild Hogs
BV
38.1 (11,600)
-
3287
38.1
Zodiac
Par
12.9 (5,450)
-
2362
12.9
Ghost Rider
Sony
11.4 (3,170)
-43%
3608
94.7
Bridge to Tarabithia
BV
8.7 (2,740)
-39%
3159
58
The Number 23
New Line
6.4 (2,320)
-56%
2759
24
Norbit
Par
6.4 (2,260)
-35%
2827
82.9
Music and Lyrics
WB
4.9 (1,850)
-36%
2644
38.7
Black Snake Moan
Par Vantage
4.0 (3,200)
-
1252
4
Reno 911!: Miami
Fox
3.7 (1,380)
-64%
2702
16.4
Breach
Uni
3.4 (2,290)
-43%
1498
25.4
Amazing Grace
IDP
3.0 (3,830)
-25%
791
8.2
The Astronaut Farmer
WB
2.2 (1,010)
-51%
2155
7.8
Daddy’s Little Girls
Lions Gate
2.1 (1,850)
-56%
1146
28.3
Night at the Museum
Fox
1.4 (1,540)
-34%
927
243.5
Because I Said So
Uni/TVA
1.3 (1,160)
-53%
1131
40.4
Pan’s Labyrinth
Picturehouse
1.2 (2,250)
-8%
525
34.2
The Last King of Scotland
Fox Searchligh
.93 (1,800)
19%
517
15.3
The Queen
Miramax
.89 (1,630)
-20%
545
54.3
The Lives of Others
Sony Classics
.76 (6,490)
72%
117
2.3
The Messengers
Sony
.72 (1,020)
-55%
706
34.5
Dreamgirls
Par
.58 (1,280)
2%
454
102.1
Hannibal Rising
MGM
.52 (700)
-70%
746
27
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$115.50
-
-
-
% Change (Last Year)
-
19%
-
-
-
% Change (Last Week)
-
5%
-
-
-
Also debuting/expanding
Two Weeks
MGM
30,300 (2,520)
-
12
0.03
Full of It
New Line
13,500 (900)
-
15
0.01
Into Great Silence
Zeitgeist
10,900 (10,900)
-
1
0.01
Azur et Asmar
Seville
6,700 (610)
-
11
0.01
Nos jour heureux
Alliance
5,500 (550)
-
10
0.05
Wild Tiger I Have Known
IFC
4,400 (4,400)
-
1
0.01

Domestic Market Share: Jan 1 – March 1, 2007

Distributor (releases)
Gross
Percentage
Sony (10)
286.8
20.80%
Paramount (7)
211.6
15.40%
Fox (9)
199.6
14.50%
Universal (6)
168.3
12.20%
Warner Bros. (12)
125.6
9.10%
MGM (8)
74.2
5.40%
Buena Vista (9)
72.9
5.30%
Lions Gate (4)
42.6
3.10%
Picturehouse (2)
32.5
2.40%
New Line (4)
30.1
2.20%
Miramax (2)
27.9
2.00%
Fox Searchlight (4)
27.7
2.00%
Focus (1)
16.4
1.20%
Sony Classics (4)
14.2
1.00%
Par Vantage (1)
14.1
1.00%
Other * (45)
32.2
2.30%
* none greater than .05%
1376.7
100.00%

Leave a Reply

Klady

Quote Unquotesee all »

“Any time a movie causes a country to threaten nuclear retaliation, the higher-ups wanna get in a room with you… In terms of getting the word out about the movie, it’s not bad. If they actually make good on it, it would be bad for the world—but luckily that doesn’t seem like their style… We’ll make a movie that maybe for two seconds will make some 18-year-old think about North Korea in a way he never would have otherwise. Or who knows? We were told one of the reasons they’re so against the movie is that they’re afraid it’ll actually get into North Korea. They do have bootlegs and stuff. Maybe the tapes will make their way to North Korea and cause a fucking revolution. At best, it will cause a country to be free, and at worst, it will cause a nuclear war. Big margin with this movie.”
~ Seth Rogen In Rolling Stone 1224

“Yes, good movies sprout up, inevitably, in the cracks and seams between the tectonic plates on which all of these franchises stay balanced, and we are reassured of their hardiness. But we don’t see what we don’t see; we don’t see the effort, or the cost of the effort, or the movies of which we’re deprived because of the cost of the effort. Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice may have come from a studio, but it still required a substantial chunk of outside financing, and at $35 million, it’s not even that expensive. No studio could find the $8.5 million it cost Dan Gilroy to make Nightcrawler. Birdman cost a mere $18 million and still had to scrape that together at the last minute. Imagine American movie culture for the last few years without Her or Foxcatcher or American Hustle or The Master or Zero Dark Thirty and it suddenly looks markedly more frail—and those movies exist only because of the fairy godmothership of independent producer Megan Ellison. The grace of billionaires is not a great business model on which to hang the hopes of an art form.”
~ Mark Harris On The State Of The Movies

The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies