MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

Hog Wild …

March 4, 2007
Weekend Estimates
Domestic Market Share

It was the snort of approval for Wild Hogs and – in the words of Borat – not so much for Zodiac. The two freshmen entries debuted in the top two slots for weekend moviegoers with respective estimated grosses of $38.1 million and $12.9 million. Overall business saw a noticeable boost from 2006 but through the first two months of the year box office was trailing last year by 3%.

Once again a low brow comedy proved to be just what the public craved. The yarn of aging hipsters hitting the road to recapture youthful ardor, Wild Hogs was expected to lead the frame. However, trackers projected no more than a $30 million bow with low enders off by close to 50% on their estimates.

It was a reverse prognosis for Zodiac, based on the true life serial killings that haunted the Bay area more than three decades ago. Upbeat reviews and pedigree credits suggested an opening between $16 million and $19 million despite its 160 minute running length. The studio is hoping word-of-mouth will translate into minimal erosion in the coming weeks.

Weekend revenues should clock in at close to $120 million for a 5% boost from Oscar weekend. Box office was 19% improved from 2006 when the $12.6 million second weekend of Medea’s Family Reunion edged out the $11.8 million launch of 16 Blocks.

The prior weekend debs The Number 23 and Reno 911!: Miami each saw 50% plus drops but most holdover titles experienced 33% to 40% erosion.

Once again there wasn’t much of an Oscar boost factor on the viewing landscape. Dreamgirls saw marginal improvement and Pan’s Labyrinth experienced a very slight decline. Both The Last King of Scotland and foreign-language winner The Lives of Others added theaters and had box office increases.

Activity in regard to new limited releases was largely unimpressive with the exception of the two and one-hour French documentary Into Great Silence that grossed $10,900 on a single screen. The profile of a religious monastery has been a niche success in Europe and has tallied close to $150,000 since its release in Canada in the late fall.

Other new openers including the coming-of-ager Full of It and the French animated import Azur et Asmar in Quebec generated theater averages of less than $1,000. The Sally Field warmity Two Weeks that had an Oscar qualifying run in December did marginally better with a $30,300 gross from 12 venues.

– Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates – March 2-4, 2007

Title
Distributor
Gross (averag
% chang
Theaters
Cume
Wild Hogs
BV
38.1 (11,600)
3287
38.1
Zodiac
Par
12.9 (5,450)
2362
12.9
Ghost Rider
Sony
11.4 (3,170)
-43%
3608
94.7
Bridge to Tarabithia
BV
8.7 (2,740)
-39%
3159
58
The Number 23
New Line
6.4 (2,320)
-56%
2759
24
Norbit
Par
6.4 (2,260)
-35%
2827
82.9
Music and Lyrics
WB
4.9 (1,850)
-36%
2644
38.7
Black Snake Moan
Par Vantage
4.0 (3,200)
1252
4
Reno 911!: Miami
Fox
3.7 (1,380)
-64%
2702
16.4
Breach
Uni
3.4 (2,290)
-43%
1498
25.4
Amazing Grace
IDP
3.0 (3,830)
-25%
791
8.2
The Astronaut Farmer
WB
2.2 (1,010)
-51%
2155
7.8
Daddy’s Little Girls
Lions Gate
2.1 (1,850)
-56%
1146
28.3
Night at the Museum
Fox
1.4 (1,540)
-34%
927
243.5
Because I Said So
Uni/TVA
1.3 (1,160)
-53%
1131
40.4
Pan’s Labyrinth
Picturehouse
1.2 (2,250)
-8%
525
34.2
The Last King of Scotland
Fox Searchligh
.93 (1,800)
19%
517
15.3
The Queen
Miramax
.89 (1,630)
-20%
545
54.3
The Lives of Others
Sony Classics
.76 (6,490)
72%
117
2.3
The Messengers
Sony
.72 (1,020)
-55%
706
34.5
Dreamgirls
Par
.58 (1,280)
2%
454
102.1
Hannibal Rising
MGM
.52 (700)
-70%
746
27
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$115.50
% Change (Last Year)
19%
% Change (Last Week)
5%
Also debuting/expanding
Two Weeks
MGM
30,300 (2,520)
12
0.03
Full of It
New Line
13,500 (900)
15
0.01
Into Great Silence
Zeitgeist
10,900 (10,900)
1
0.01
Azur et Asmar
Seville
6,700 (610)
11
0.01
Nos jour heureux
Alliance
5,500 (550)
10
0.05
Wild Tiger I Have Known
IFC
4,400 (4,400)
1
0.01

Domestic Market Share: Jan 1 – March 1, 2007

Distributor (releases)
Gross
Percentage
Sony (10)
286.8
20.80%
Paramount (7)
211.6
15.40%
Fox (9)
199.6
14.50%
Universal (6)
168.3
12.20%
Warner Bros. (12)
125.6
9.10%
MGM (8)
74.2
5.40%
Buena Vista (9)
72.9
5.30%
Lions Gate (4)
42.6
3.10%
Picturehouse (2)
32.5
2.40%
New Line (4)
30.1
2.20%
Miramax (2)
27.9
2.00%
Fox Searchlight (4)
27.7
2.00%
Focus (1)
16.4
1.20%
Sony Classics (4)
14.2
1.00%
Par Vantage (1)
14.1
1.00%
Other * (45)
32.2
2.30%
* none greater than .05%
1376.7
100.00%

Leave a Reply

Klady

Quote Unquotesee all »

A Spirited Exchange

“In some ways Christopher Nolan has become our Stanley Kubrick,” reads the first sentence of David Bordwell’s latest blog post–none of which I want or intend to read after that desperate opening sentence. If he’d written “my” or “some people’s” instead of “our”, I might have read further. Instead, I can only surmise that in some ways David Bordwell may have become our Lars von Trier.”
~ Jonathan Rosenbaum On Facebook

“Jonathan has written a despicable thing in comparing me to Trump. He’s free to read or not read what I write, and even to judge arguments without reading them. It’s not what you’d expect from a sensible critic, but it’s what Jonathan has chosen to do, for reasons of a private nature he has confided to me in an email What I request from him is an apology for comparing my ideas to Trump’s.”
~ David Bordwell Replies

“Yes, I do apologize, sincerely, for such a ridiculous and quite unwarranted comparison. The private nature of my grievance with David probably fueled my post, but it didn’t dictate it, even though I’m willing to concede that I overreacted. Part of what spurred me to post something in the first place is actually related to a positive development in David’s work–an improvement in his prose style ever since he wrote (and wrote very well) about such elegant prose stylists as James Agee and Manny Farber. But this also brought a journalistic edge to his prose, including a dramatic flair for journalistic ‘hooks’ and attention-grabbers, that is part of what I was responding to. Although I realize now that David justifies his opening sentence with what follows, and far less egregiously than I implied he might have, I was responding to the drum roll of that opening sentence as a provocation, which it certainly was and is.”
~ Jonathan Rosenbaum Replies

“In my own mind, I’ve always been a writer and the fact that I act is, well… it’s been very enjoyable and I love doing it. It has been good for me, but in my own mind I’m just a writer with a bizarre activity—acting—that I undertake.”
~ Wallace Shawn