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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Klady's Weekend Estimates

Title | Weekend | Chg | Cume
Epic Movie | 18.9 | – | 18.9
Smokin’ Aces | 14.2 | – | 14.2
Night at the Museum | 9.1 | -24% | 216.4
Catch and Release | 7.9 | – | 7.9
Stomp the Yard | 7.7 | -38% | 50.5
Dreamgirls | 6.4 | -20% | 86.4
The Pursuit of Happyness | 4.7 | -25% | 152.7
Pan’s Labyrinth | 4.2 | -6% | 16.0
The Queen | 3.9 | 14% | 41.1
The Hitcher | 3.4 | -56% | 13.2
=================================
Title | Friday | Screens | % Chg | Cume
Epic Movie | 6.5 | 2801 | – | 6.5
Smokin’ Aces | 4.9 | 2218 | – | 4.9
Catch and Release | 2.6 | 1622 | – | 2.6
Night at the Museum | 2.2 | 3241 | -30% | 209.5
Stomp the Yard | 2.1 | 2115 | -43% | 44.9
Dreamgirls | 1.7 | 2785 | -25% | 81.7
Pursuit of Happyness | 1.3 | 2688 | -30% | 149.3
Pan’s Labyrinth | 1.2 | 823 | -11% | 13.0
The Hitcher | 1.1 | 2836 | -61% | 10.9
The Queen | 1.0 | 1830 | 10% | 38.3
Freedom Writers | 1.0 | 2273 | -40% | 28.8
Also Debuting
Blood & Chocolate | 0.7 | 1200 | – | 0.7
Salaam-E-Ishq | 0.18 | 86 | – | 0.18
Seraphim Falls | .038 | 52 | – | .038
Breaking & Entering | .004 | 2 | – | .004
G.I. Jesus | .0008 | 6 | – | .0008
Funny Money | .0004 | 4 | – | .0004

43 Responses to “Klady's Weekend Estimates”

  1. Direwolf says:

    I saw Letters last night in Evanston, IL. 5:50 PM show. About 80% full. Average age was over 50 for sure, maybe 55.
    I think it is an absolutely beautiful film. Touching, thoughtful, emotional. I remember when DP wrote a post last year saying that there was a major new twist on the BP race and didn’t tell us what it was. It turned out to be Letters. I can see why he said that. A very deserving nomination, IMO.
    Complete silence in the film throughout and total silence upon the end. Very respectful audience which I think speaks to the power of the film.
    I’ve seen all the BP nominees now. If I were a voter I think it would be between Letters and Departed. I’d put The Queen next then Babel and LMS.

  2. Chicago48 says:

    Surprise! all boxo DOWN, including the BP nom movies. I thought for sure DG and Pan’s would move to the top 5.

  3. Eric says:

    Dreamgirls would almost certainly be damaged by missing the Best Picture nomination, don’t you think? If there’s anybody out there who hasn’t seen it yet, they’re going to take the snub as a signal that it might not be worth the effort to go.

  4. martin says:

    I don’t think DG will be “hurt” by lack of noms. But it certainly won’t be helped either. It will continue its trajectory to a $105-110 finish.

  5. Eric says:

    I guess I assumed such a number would be a disappointment, but maybe it was expected.
    This is the consequence of frequenting only one movie site, I suppose– my perceptions were skewed after I read, less than a month ago, that “$150 million is close to inevitable.”

  6. martindale says:

    A 20% drop from last weekend isn’t disasterous for Dreamgirls, although it did add quite a few screens.
    Reminds me of Brokeback last year. It’s box office went WAY down after losing BP last year.

  7. Jonj says:

    The studio should have taken “Pan’s” wider after the number of nominations it received. Word of mouth is strong, but it won’t match the push the film got from its Oscar nominations. It’s showing on more than 800 screens, but I think 1,000 or 1,200 would have put it in the top 5 easily. I think it’s a missed opportunity.

  8. Dan says:

    Picturehouse said they are never going to expand above 1000 theaters in order to keep the PTA high.

  9. Dan says:

    Also, LETTERS was completely sold out at the theater I went to last night in St. Louis, MO. It was full by the time I got there 15 minutes before it started, and there was a huge line of people waiting around trying to figgure out what to see now that it was sold out.
    It’ll be interesting to see how much money LETTERS makes.

  10. Jonj says:

    That’s funny about Letters being sold out this weekend. I saw it the week before it was nominated. It was a Friday night at a busy multiplex around 9 p.m. I even bought my ticket online fearing a sellout. But there were only a handful of people in the audience, somewhere between three and five people, not including myself. A bunch of Oscar nominations can make a difference.

  11. Jonj says:

    I caught “Last King” after the Oscar nomination. The theater was almost full at an early afternoon showing. The movie has been around for a while, but it looks like people are now more likely to check it out.

  12. Chicago48 says:

    All this is great! Maybe the boxo this weekend and next will help the little movies that came and went like Last King of Scotland to at least break even.

  13. Chicago48 says:

    All this is great! Maybe the boxo this weekend and next will help the little movies that came and went like Last King of Scotland to at least break even.
    As for DG, I think people are going to see it for the performances now that there are 2 supportings, and not so much for the movie itself. Sometimes when there’s a lot of buzz about actor’s performance (Forrest Whitaker), the public will go just for the performance (I know I do).

  14. TJFar67 says:

    Dreamgirls best picture snub is enough to make James Brown spin in his grave…well, you know, if they ever got around to bury him.

  15. All this and Little Children is still languishing in NY, LA and SF cinemas? New Line are officially bonkers. Are they just prepping for the DVD release or what? I mean, they spent $20mil on this, you’d think they would want to make a quarter of that back through cinemas.
    I was surprised to see in the newspaper today a big ad for Dreamgirls touting “8 Academy Award Nominations” and actually listed them all. I would have thought they’d just say it was nominated for 8 oscars and leave it at that.

  16. Jonj says:

    “Little Children” is only on 88 screens. At its widest release, it hit only about 100 screens. When I saw it only about 10 people showed up, probably because the marketing for it was so poor. It only played a week. It’s such a good, challenging film. But New Line appears scared to death of it. You would think they would tout the acting nod and give the thing a little push. It’s a shame that crap like “Blood and Chocolate” gets a wide release and something like “Little Children” languishes on the fringe.

  17. Spacesheik says:

    Can anyone enlighten us on the b.o. prospects for SERAPHIM FALLS, a western revenge drama with Pierce Brosnan and Liam Neeson and whether these numbers are any good (“Seraphim Falls | .038 | 52 | – | .038″).

  18. Those numbers equal an average of $730 per screen, so no it’s not that good. Why on earth you would release a movie in that many cinemas in January is baffling.

  19. Jonj says:

    It’ll be interesting to see which movie takes the cast/ensemble award at the SAGs. A Dreamgirls win won’t shed any light on the Oscars. If everyone who was in Bobby just voted for themselves, that might be enough even though the movie was awful. I’ll predict LMS, but I still think it’ll lose out on best pic at the Oscars. I really don’t buy the ensemble award as a good indication of the eventual Academy Award winner for best pic. I believe Sideways, Gosford Park, Traffic and The Full Monty won ensemble but lost the Oscar.
    I still can’t believe they put DiCaprio in supporting for The Departed. That role is about as supporting as Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat.

  20. Josh Massey says:

    “Why on earth you would release a movie in that many cinemas in January is baffling.”
    That reeks of “contractual obligation.”

  21. Spacesheik says:

    Thanks Kamikaze, I mean Brosnan and Neeson in a Western, you’d think there would be a decent audience for that, reviews so far around 46% on Rotten Tomatoes.

  22. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Box office numbers on the Oscar hopefuls are skewed. A lot of theaters are playing the Oscar nominees but not with a full round of shows. For example, the AMC megaplex in Clifton NJ is alternating “The Departed” with “The Last King of Scotland”.
    New Line may or may not expand “Little Children” next week. “May” because “Volver” went national this week and flopped. “May not” because of the Super Bowl.
    As usual Sony Pictures Classics is clueless about bookings. I saw “Volver” on New Year’s Day in a 2-screen arthouse in Princeton. The AMC megaplex in nearby Hamilton didn’t pick up “Volver” until this week.

  23. Chicago48 says:

    $86Mil for DG, not bad…and it seems to have a bit of legs….but that Museum movie – my GOD, it’s challening Pirates of the Carib – who would have thunk?

  24. Spacesheik says:

    “but that Museum movie – my GOD, it’s challening Pirates of the Carib – who would have thunk?”
    And Mickey Rooney, #1 star of the American box office at some point during the 30s/40s has a winning supporting role in this…The man used to make films for Louis B Mayer alongside Judy Garland, Spencer Tracy – just blows my mind.

  25. Direwolf says:

    Pirates 1 did over $300 million and Pirates 2 did over $400 million. I wouldn’t say that Museum is challenging Pirates although it has done very well.

  26. Chicago48 says:

    The Last King of Scotland FoxS $1,650,000 +2.5% 501 +6 $3,293 $7,714,000 $6
    Seems to have made it’s money back.
    Children of Men Uni. $2,022,000 -45.5% 1,276 -248 $1,584 $30,749,000
    Won’t make it’s money back
    Babel ParV $2,581,000 +24.5% 1,090 +201 $2,367 $27,246,000
    Still STruggling…do you think it will reach $50Mil domestic?
    The Pursuit of Happyness Sony $5,000,000 -20.8% 2,688 -378 $1,860 $152,947,000
    Has made 3X’s its money – amazin!
    Dreamgirls P/DW $6,618,000 -17.4% 2,785 +571 $2,376 $86,651,000
    Struggling but should get to $100Mil
    Letters from Iwo Jima WB $1,710,000 +26.2% 415 +55 $4,120 $4,915,000
    Should make its $19Mil back easy. How much did Flags cost?

  27. Chicago48 says:

    The Last King of Scotland FoxS $1,650,000 +2.5% 501 +6 $3,293 $7,714,000 $6
    Seems to have made it’s money back.
    Children of Men Uni. $2,022,000 -45.5% 1,276 -248 $1,584 $30,749,000
    Won’t make it’s money back
    Babel ParV $2,581,000 +24.5% 1,090 +201 $2,367 $27,246,000
    Still STruggling…do you think it will reach $50Mil domestic?
    The Pursuit of Happyness Sony $5,000,000 -20.8% 2,688 -378 $1,860 $152,947,000
    Has made 3X’s its money – amazin!
    Dreamgirls P/DW $6,618,000 -17.4% 2,785 +571 $2,376 $86,651,000
    Struggling but should get to $100Mil
    Letters from Iwo Jima WB $1,710,000 +26.2% 415 +55 $4,120 $4,915,000
    Should make its $19Mil back easy. How much did Flags cost?

  28. anghus says:

    Chicago
    Don’t forget the 55% rule.
    Take just over half the box office to figure out what the studio gets back.
    Basically meaning Iwo Jima would need to make 38 million to ‘make it’s money back’. Scotland 12million, etc.
    And no, i don’t think Babel will make it to 50 million.

  29. martin says:

    Maybe I’m missing something, but I don’t see any real Oscar Nom box office boosts. Maybe Iwo Jima and I guess Departed (thx to re-release) maybe Pan’s a bit and Queen a little. But overall, Noms didn’t seem to make much of a difference.

  30. jeffmcm says:

    Take away 45% for the exhibitors, but you also have to add back overseas box-office, DVDs, and other ancillaries.

  31. martin says:

    True Jeff, but hitting the black in domestic theatrical has generally been the definition of a “hit”. This has changed a bit in the last decade, but it’s still generally the case (at least in perception). A movie like Children of Men can’t be easily called a flop though, because I’m pretty sure it was made for the European market, not just the U.S. And I think it made good money over there.

  32. jeffmcm says:

    Yes, but I think that this perception is changing. Plus I thought the issue as raised by Chicago48 was a movie being profitable, not a movie being perceived as a hit or not.

  33. Wrecktum says:

    It’s crityical to hit certain benchmarks in theatrical to determine your licensing fees for ancillary. It’s true that studios don’t count on profitability during the initial theatrical release, but to assume that studios perception is changing in terms of box office revenue is wrong.

  34. jeffmcm says:

    The fact that we’re talking about it means that it’s evolving. The studios are counting on certain movies making a certain proportion of their income on DVD. Isn’t WB waiting to see how Superman Returns’ DVD sales are before they commit to letting Bryan Singer direct a sequel?

  35. Lota says:

    US BO is still what the studios ‘want’ to count on Jeff. DVD is like a last resort and no guarantee.
    was a little disappointed in Blood and Chocolate, even though there were some things to like alot (good book with a crappish ending).
    very disappointed in SAG. No one I want is winning. my Kiefer didn;t win :( no love for Deadwood or 24 :(
    helen mirren looked Hot, I want to be her when I grow up. Jeremy Irons is still Baaad. Loved his suit.
    and I can see Eddie Murphy’s swollen noggin from here. forgive them Lord, for the ego-monster they hath spawned. goddam the oscars will suck if he wins.

  36. Direwolf says:

    And don’t forget marketing costs which are incredibly high as a % of negative cost for most films in wide release.
    And of course, we’ll never really know because participations and residuals never see the light of day.
    And the whole business is changing as outside money is providing more and more of production costs and studios are taking less equity in films. Studios are becoming more like a traditional distributor as film cash flows, negative and positive, are just structured securities like mortgages and credit cards before them.

  37. jeffmcm says:

    Last resort? They can predict how well a movie will do on DVD on Saturday afternoon of opening weekend.
    None of it will matter in twenty years anyway, when people just download onto their huge plasma screens whatever they want whenever they want to, and marketing hype mutates into something unknown.

  38. Hey look! Ben Affleck was in a movie that didn’t flop! Or, it didn’t in opening weekend. And he beat his wife’s new film on the same weekend.

  39. djk813 says:

    The other thing to be aware of with Letters from Iwo Jima is that it’s already made $35M in Japan.

  40. Cadavra says:

    The general rule of thumb is that domestic theatrical represents 20% of a film’s eventual total take, though of course that can be skewed either way by a film’s individual content: kiddie pics will make a greater haul on DVD, movies with hip-hop artists don’t sell overseas, and so on. Studios normally use the 20% figure to calculate what a film’s ultimate take might be before, during and after production.

  41. Chicago48 says:

    This discussion about boxo receipts is very interesting, bec. I just read the Businessweek.com story about pirated Casino Royale in China – selling for $1.30 and of very poor quality. It’s probably past time that the studios try to solve the problem by putting chips in DVDs or a hologram of some type to let people know this is the legitimate copy. Also, they have to rush their movies to online distributors quicker.
    As someone above mentioned, it’s any day now when the Plasma + DVD recorder will be able to download movies…isn’t that what all this high-tech gadgetry is above anyway?

  42. Eric says:

    People don’t care about legitimate copies when they cost twelve bucks more than the pirated version.

  43. EthanG says:

    How could Epic Movie possibly do better than Date Movie?!?! AHHHHH!
    On a happier note, Pan’s Labyrinth is about to crack the top 10 foreign films in box office domestically.

Box Office

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4