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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Globes Predictions

The media spin to come:
If Dreamgirls wins, it will mean nothing.
If Dreamgirls loses, the film will be “over.”
If Babel wins, The Departed & Little Miss Sunshine will still be “the front runners” for Oscar
If The Departed wins, it will be “THE front runner” for Oscar.
If Babel ends up with less than 3 Globes, it will be “HFPA star fucking.”
If Babel wins more Globes than any other film, it will be “HFPA star fucking.”
If Jack Nicholson wins Best Supporting Actor, it will prove “The Departed is gaining.”
If Brad Pitt wins Best Supporting Actor, it will prove “the HFPA loves stars.”
If Eddie Murphy wins Best Supporting Actor, it will prove that “Dreamgirls isn’t strong in the lead categories.”
If any film other than The Departed wins Best Drama, it will “not mean anything.”
If The Departed doesn’t win and Little Miss Sunshine does, it will be reported as a 2 way race.
If The Departed doesn’t win and Dreamgirls wins Best Musical/Comedy, it wil be a “Three way race between The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, and longshot, Dreamgirls.”
Book it.

22 Responses to “Globes Predictions”

  1. Aveeno1 says:

    you are spot on D. Should be an interesting night.

  2. jeffmcm says:

    Preemptive defense.

  3. Sam says:

    When did LMS *ever* gain standing in the Oscar race beyond its promotion from “possible fifth nominee” to “probable fourth nominee” after the guilds indicated a dearth of Letters love? I can’t see LMS winning in any conceivable scenario.

  4. Josh Massey says:

    Uh, Sam:
    “Crash.”
    There’s one scenario right there.

  5. Joe Leydon says:

    Alternative scenario, not unlike the Chariots of Fire upset victory over Reds and On Golden PondThe Queen. No kidding.

  6. Ian Sinclair says:

    My cash is on The Queen too!

  7. EDouglas says:

    I wouldn’t put any money on The Queen, but if it wins, I’ll be really happy, since it’s my #1 movie of the year and I think it deserves an Oscar win more than all the other movies combined.

  8. right says:

    If Michael Sheen scores an Oscar nom, I’d say there’s a very real chance of the Queen pulling it off.
    I think Breslin has a better shot of knocking off Hudson than LMS does of beating Dreamgirls.

  9. Sam says:

    Josh: But Little Miss Sunshine isn’t Crash, which is (critical evaluations aside) a liberally-minded, socially-conscious drama of racial tensions and an emotional punch. Little Miss Sunshine is a quirky comedy, more analogous to Sideways than Crash, only with fewer accolades in the precursors.

  10. lazarus says:

    Wow, even when DP appears to really enjoy a Scorsese film, he still finds a way to position himself as dissenter against it.
    This may be written under the guise of some critique against the prognosticators, but the ENTIRE piece is attempting to take wind out of the idea that The Departed could win Best Picture. Because DP doesn’t think this is likely (despite the fact that equally, if not more violent films have won in the past), he needs to strike down any consensus that the race has turned around.
    The funny thing is that I’m not reading “The Departed is a lock” anywhere, yet we’ve had the whole “Dreamgirls will win” debate about DP’s semantics and what he really meant.
    Hypocrisy as always…

  11. bipedalist says:

    Poland seems itching for a fight so I guess I’ll dive on in.
    The media spin to come:
    (by media you mean one or two website people you disagree with?)
    If Dreamgirls wins, it will mean nothing.
    (no, it will mean it’s not dead)
    If Dreamgirls loses, the film will be “over.”
    (if you don’t think it will be dead you have another think coming)
    If Babel wins, The Departed & Little Miss Sunshine will still be “the front runners” for Oscar
    If The Departed wins, it will be “THE front runner” for Oscar.
    (If Babel wins, The Departed can still win the Oscar but it won’t clean sweep it the way many of us think it will – and makes it harder to guess best pic)
    (If it wins, yes, it will be too big to ignore and has no real formidable challenger)
    If Babel ends up with less than 3 Globes, it will be “HFPA star fucking.”
    (Makes no sense)
    If Babel wins more Globes than any other film, it will be “HFPA star fucking.”
    (No, it will just mean they liked the movie better and good for the movie)
    If Jack Nicholson wins Best Supporting Actor, it will prove “The Departed is gaining.”
    (No, it will prove they love Jack, which they do – he is also good in the film and provides this category with its only lead stuffed into supporting, which is always hard to beat)
    If Brad Pitt wins Best Supporting Actor, it will prove “the HFPA loves stars.”
    (yup)
    If Eddie Murphy wins Best Supporting Actor, it will prove that “Dreamgirls isn’t strong in the lead categories.”
    (No, it will continue Dreamgirls’ expected trajectory)
    If any film other than The Departed wins Best Drama, it will “not mean anything.”
    (No, it will mean The Departed isn’t as strong as we thought)
    If The Departed doesn’t win and Little Miss Sunshine does, it will be reported as a 2 way race.
    (No, it will only mean Dreamgirls is dead)
    If The Departed doesn’t win and Dreamgirls wins Best Musical/Comedy, it wil be a “Three way race between The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, and longshot, Dreamgirls.”
    (No, unlike you there is no need to think in such black and white terms – you are the one who prematurely ejaculated your proclamation that DREAMGIRLS WILL WIN BEST PICTURE – and your subsequent need to put anyone down who disagrees with you is pathetic)

  12. Hallick says:

    Bipedalist, I don’t understand your post as a shot back at Poland since he’s speculating about the spin in the post-event coverage, and you’re talking about what you personally think these hypothetical situations will actually mean. But then you’re berating him for being wrong when he isn’t saying they’re his own beliefs to begin with.
    If you two want to go at it over “Dreamgirls” vs. “The Departed”, that’s great. But here it just seems like you’re fighting at cross purposes unless David’s predictions line up exactly with his own feelings.

  13. David Poland says:

    BiP… not looking for a fight… just predicting.
    And Laz, you are wrong. I love The Departed and have supported The Departed and none of that has changed.
    Why can’t anything I write be allowed to be what it is. Let’s enjoy the evening and see what happens. Maybe I’ll be wrong and the press will not be predictable. Bless them if they aren’t.

  14. Josh Massey says:

    “Crash” and “Little Miss Sunshine” aren’t thematically similar, but last year’s voters who wanted an easy-to-swallow paint-by-numbers movie could avoid so-called controversial choices like “The Departed” (too violent), “Babel” and “The Queen” (too foreign), and “Dreamgirls” (too black).
    That’s why I think “Sunshine” is actually the frontrunner right now. Sadly.

  15. Jonj says:

    OK, the real issue with the Globes is the fact that they’re not being broadcast in high definition. You can get a hot-dog eating contest in high def, but no Globes…

  16. movielocke says:

    yikes, did Dave happen upon some prewritten headlines of Sascha’s? I thought it was a pretty good tongue in cheek post, especially later, when I read Kris’ oscar column for today.

  17. EDouglas says:

    I’m not sure I’d want to see Warren Beatty, Clint Eastwood and Jack Nicholson in HiDef.

  18. Jonj says:

    To EDouglas: You have a good point there. They’d have warn people that the show was being broadcast in 1080g for geriatric

  19. “Alternative scenario, not unlike the Chariots of Fire upset victory over Reds and On Golden Pond — The Queen. No kidding.”
    But Chariots of Fire (and Gandhi too for that matter) were nominated for an won Best Foreign Film, which means a possibility to beat the American films nominated was never presented.

  20. Joe Leydon says:

    Kamel: Sorry, guess I didn’t make myself clear. I was reacting to a previous Oscar (not GG) reference. I think The Queen could score an Oscar upset.

  21. Sam says:

    Josh: Those are pretty made-up controversies. And we don’t know Brokeback Mountain lost over its controversy, either. I suspect it did not.
    In any case, the biggest rule of Oscar prognostication is that the rules aren’t really rules, just heuristics. People try to retrofit reasons into why a diverse group of a skillion people voted, as if they all voted the same way for the same reasons. In reality, the race could be decided by one guy that forgot to drop his ballot off before the post office closed. I’m not saying there are no rules or reasons, just that it’s a complex picture. There is no way whatsoever “too foreign” is going to be the overriding, compelling reason why “The Queen” doesn’t win. If it doesn’t (and I don’t think it will) it will probably be simply that another movie was more personally moving to the Academy members. Oscar winners tend to be more grand and dramatic than The Queen’s subtlety.
    Which is precisely why Little Miss Sunshine will lose. It’s a fun movie people liked, and that’s why it’ll (probably) be nominated, but when it comes down to picking a single favorite, the virtuoso filmmaking of Dreamgirls and The Departed and Babel will be tough to vote against.

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