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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

The Box Office To Come

For any movies now open, studios can, within about 15%, figure out with about 95% certainty what the rest of 2006 is going to look like for them. Black Christmas and Dreamgirls are really the only box office stories left to present themselves.
As it went last year, the Friday before X-Mas pretty much lays out a number that a film will perform close to on every day except the two down days of X-Mas Eve and X-Mas, and the unusually up day of the day after X-Mas. 2004 was unusual because that Friday was X-Mas Eve, but the Day before that, the Thursday, pretty much offered the same rule.
The extra day is a big advantage for films this year over last, since the day after the New Year

17 Responses to “The Box Office To Come”

  1. jeffmcm says:

    ‘And this whole exercise reminds us, as facts so often do, that movies are most often

  2. James Leer says:

    “…studios can, within about 15%, figure out with about 95% certainty…”
    So, like, 85% then?

  3. EDouglas says:

    “Black Christmas could hurt We Are Marshall.”
    Wow, I’d love to hear that logic. I think the audience for an R-rated horror remake is completely different from a PG-rated football drama.

  4. jeffmcm says:

    I would guess the idea is that both are appealing to the teen market, although I would think that Eragon would be more hurt by BC.

  5. djk813 says:

    And the Hairspray splash screen teaser is so smart because (though I didn’t time it out) it seems like the person most likely to actually sell tickets gets the most screen time – Zac Efron, and they use the song from the musical that was used in one of the most popular dance numbers from So You Think You Can Dance. Though I haven’t actually seen the musical, the original movie (unlike the other recent big screen musical remakes), is a teen movie. It’s not a John Travolta – Michelle Pfeiffer movie, it’s an Amanda Bynes – Zac Efron movie, and a movie where the chubby girl gets the heartthrob. Hairspray will be out before High School Musical 2, and it will probably be promoted as High School Musical 1.5 as much as possible.

  6. jo conrad says:

    Wow, that NIGHT number is amazing considering the reviews. The 4 supposed oscar entries have shockingly poor per screen averages. They are all bombs by any measure. None will break 20K a screen for the weekend which matches them up with Good German at 15k per screen on 5 screens, rather than volver at 39k per screen on 5 screens and Little Miss Sunshine and Babel at 50k+ per screen on 7 screens. Nobody is touting Good German as an oscar contender, but everyone assumes Venus and Iwo Jima are contenders. I think this means they are both out of teh race.

  7. jo conrad says:

    Wow, that NIGHT number is amazing considering the reviews. The 4 supposed oscar entries have shockingly poor per screen averages. They are all bombs by any measure. None will break 20K a screen for the weekend which matches them up with Good German at 15k per screen on 5 screens, rather than volver at 39k per screen on 5 screens and Little Miss Sunshine and Babel at 50k+ per screen on 7 screens. Nobody is touting Good German as an oscar contender, but everyone assumes Venus and Iwo Jima are contenders. I think this means they are both out of teh race.

  8. Wrecktum says:

    No one is touting Venus as a best picture nominee.

  9. Spacesheik says:

    I am surprised WE ARE MARSHALL opened weaker than expected. That is one film I did not expect to flop – maybe people have ‘inspirational sports movie’ fatigue (i.e. INVINCIBLE, GRIDIRON etc).

  10. EDouglas says:

    It’s a shame because Marshall is better than Invicible and a LOT better than Gridiron Gang. You’re probably right that people are worn out from football movies, that and the excess amount of movies released in the last few weeks. I’m hoping it will pick up business next week though I heard Saturday was pretty bad.

  11. Tofu says:

    Opening up your sports movie on the same weekend as a Rocky flick is just asking for pain. Marshall has January/February release written all over itself.
    Ouch for Charlotte

  12. Joe Leydon says:

    Is it my imagination, or is Apocalypto (which I quite liked, BTW) dropping like a stone down a well? Really, really quickly, even quicker than its worst critics predicted?

  13. “Ouch for Charlotte

  14. jeffmcm says:

    Miracle is actually pretty good, although it’s also the most blatantly pro-American of that group.

  15. EDouglas says:

    I heard that one theatre in Atlanta has sold over 1100 advance tickets for Dreamgirls as of yesterday afternoon.

  16. ployp says:

    Guess all the public will be spared from Eragon 2 (whatever the book is called).

  17. martin says:

    You mean Eragon 2: The Two Towers?

Box Office

Quote Unquotesee all »

“Well, actually, of that whole group that I call the post-60s anti-authority auteurs, a lot of them came from television. Peckinpah’s the only one whose television work represents his feature work. I mean, like the only one. Mark Rydell can direct a really good episode of ‘Gunsmoke’ and Michael Ritchie can direct a really good episode of ‘The Big Valley,’ but they don’t necessarily look like The Candidate. But Peckinpah’s stuff, even the scripts he wrote that he didn’t even direct, have a Peckinpah feel – the way I think there’s a Corbucci West – suggest a Peckinpah West. That even in his random episodes that he wrote for ‘Gunsmoke’ – it’s right there.”
~ Quentin Tarantino

“The thought is interrupted by an odd interlude. We are speaking in the side room of Casita, a swish and fairly busy Italian bistro in Aoyama – a district of Tokyo usually so replete with celebrities that they spark minimal fuss. Kojima’s fame, however, exceeds normal limits and adoring staff have worked out who their guest is. He stops mid-sentence and points up towards the speakers, delighted. The soft jazz that had been playing discreetly across the restaurant’s dark, hardwood interior has suddenly been replaced with the theme music from some of Kojima’s hit games. Harry Gregson-Williams’ music is sublime in its context but ‘Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots’ is not, Kojima acknowledges, terribly restauranty. He pauses, adjusting a pair of large, blue-framed glasses of his own design, and returns to the way in which games have not only influenced films, but have also changed the way in which people watch them. “There are stories being told [in cinema] that my generation may find surprising but which the gamer generation doesn’t find weird at all,” he says.
~ Hideo Kojima