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David Poland

By David Poland

Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/7

The Departed opened on more than 1000 screens more than any Scorsese movie has opened on before. (Bringing Out The Dead, 1936 screens) It

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29 Responses to “Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/7”

  1. SpamDooley says:

    But where is this weeks vblog kvetch fest?
    I am Spam Dooley and I Keep a Close Watch on this heart of mine!

  2. abba_70s says:

    It’s hard to believe that “Employee” made half of what “Departed” did. Personally I expected “Departed” to be much higher but what the heck do I know?

  3. abba_70s says:

    ..Maybe Scorsese should cast Dane Cook in his next movie…

  4. SpamDooley says:

    I ask you this is all seriousness based on something you mentioned last week. Is Nikki Finke just a stupid kunt with a big mouth or what? Go read her BO report. Instead of pointing out that the $15m Chainsaw movie will cover its nut at the BO in the first weekend, she announces it disappointingly less than the original. Instead of touting the triumph of Departed she says it is less than expected and Warners sucks. What is her problem? Is she just a moron?
    I am Spam Dooley and I kill coppers!

  5. Crow T Robot says:

    I’ll see The Departed today but catching The Queen at The Arc last night was sheer fucking bliss. This is a sensationally entertaining movie — on par with last year’s Walk The Line in terms of smart, accessible grownup fare. The kind of movie you want to see again right away. (Interesting though how there’s all this drumming for Mirren as Actress but little for Michael Sheen in Supporting with his symbiotic performance as Tony Blair. You just can’t have one without the other — he’s the Clarice to her Hannibal)
    Anyway, this is a great great film that just about washed away the whole year of shit for me last night. No small feat there.

  6. Joseph says:

    I thought the Friday numbers for “The Departed” were very good. I think it may skew more to older audiences this weekend (what, with “Employee” and “Chainsaw” skewing the teenage crowd) so I expect a fine boost in Saturday numbers (since older audiences aren’t in a hurry to be there opening night). All and all I very good opening.

  7. David Poland says:

    Nikki has no knowledge of nor any interest in box office. She has an interest in links to Teh Drudge Report. All of her box office info comes from one studio that tells her what to think… and she transcribes. It is a joke. But so long as Drudge links to it, it will continue.
    Same with Wells, but from a different studio.

  8. jeffmcm says:

    Can you tell us which are the two studios? You seem to be rather coy about their names.

  9. sky_capitan says:

    I like this finke quote:
    “Jessica Simpson still can’t make the jump from music to movies”
    Simpsons’ last cd came out on August 29th, and isn’t even in the billboard hot 100 anymore.
    I’d say her music career is in worse shape than her movie career.

  10. Aladdin Sane says:

    Glad to see The Departed doing as good as it is (for a Scorsese pic and all). I’m seeing it tonight. Can’t wait.

  11. SpamDooley says:

    why not list the studios?
    I am SPAM DOOLEY and I use Garnier Fructis!

  12. abba_70s says:

    I used to use Garnier Fructis but my chest hair never did “volumize”

  13. austin111 says:

    I noticed on Moviefone yesterday that EOTM was the most requested movie but today it is The Departed.

  14. Wrecktum says:

    I understand that Scorsese is a hero for a older generation of moviegoers, but I thought that kids loved Goodfellas. With the high octane cast and the Goodfellas vibe, I’m surprised that more kids aren’t flocking to see The Departed.

  15. EDouglas says:

    David, how do you figure on $100 million domestic based on a $25 million opening? It made more than twice as much money as Scorsese’s other movies opening weekend (opening in 1,000 more theatres so there won’t be the added legs that come with expansion). It won’t have the bump from the holidays nor much from the Oscars, that is if it even gets nominated for anything, and it’s going to lose a lot, if not all, of its audience in two weeks to Flags of our Fathers/The Prestige and will probably be losing screens by the time Saw III comes out. I think figuring on a 4X opening overall multiplier for this movie based on Friday estimates is extremely optimistic. Like anything else, it’s certainly possible, but I think expecting the kinds of legs of Gangs and Aviator without the same circumstances is getting ahead of ourselves a bit here.

  16. David Poland says:

    Because I think th emore poeple see this film, the wider it will play.
    You underestimate just how narrow Scorsese’s reach has been. There is no reason a film for adults with plenty of teen-draw that teens don’t know about and will require word of mouth can’t be very leggy.
    Maybe it won’t be. Maybe it will be The Scorsese 70. Maybe not. We’ll see.

  17. Ladymerlin says:

    Maybe New Line can use some of the money from “Chainsaw” to give some promotion to “Little Children”.

  18. tfresca says:

    Saw Little Miss Sunshine Saturday night, great movie. Theater was about half full. Open Season was sold out as was Texas Chainsaw.. Employee was not and I don’t think the departed was either..I’d expect to see more anti-Internet stories unless Cook’s movie turns a corner. Since somehow he’ seen as an internet comic. It probably says something about the hatred many people have for Jessica Simpson. Who else thinks that if say Jennifer Alba was in this we could add another $4 to the weekend total at least?

  19. martin says:

    Alba would have definitely added some legitimacy, as it is it seemed kinda like a direct-to-vid to me that got theatrical cause a lead (Cook) suddenly got massively popular. And I don’t know the budget details or the tracking, but to me $15 mill for Employee seems like a VERY solid open. Was it really expected to do much more?

  20. The Carpetmuncher says:

    The “Scorcese 70,” that’s funny, I never heard that before. I think it goes over $100 mil, it’ll have legs, b/c it’s good, it’s got great word-of-mouth, and it’s got big stars. Plays to both high school kids (Leo & Matt Damon) and adults (Nicholson, Scorcese).
    I don’t think Alba opposite Cook does much better than Cook opposite Simpson, but probably a little. The thing is, Dane Cook isn’t a movie star, and neither is Ms. Simpson. And the movie looked pretty lame. I too hope both their moments have passed, but I doubt it…both cater to a dumb ass audience that will probably continue to tune in to them, so long as they’re on cable.
    (No offense to that dumb ass audience btw, but Cook shouldn’t have any fans outside the frat house, and Simpson would be the perfect gal, if only she never opened her mouth.)
    I feel the need to go see The Departed again, but I guess I should go check out The Queen…

  21. The three openers I think are pretty much gonna do as good as could be expected. With Texas, Saw III, The Grudge 2 the kids probably decided they’d choose 2 of the 3 to see.
    The producers for The Departed really shouldn’t of been expecting over $30mil. No R rated movie has made that much all year. $27mil is good.
    Employee… well, everything is positive, right? How can you see $12mil or so as disappointing for a movie it seemed as if nobody wanted to see. How is this only going to do slighly better than Waiting. Didn’t that movie only open to $6mil? Other places are reporting Employee started with $5mil on Friday, and not $4.2mil.
    And Open Season looks to be another mid-sized animated film.
    I love that The Illusionist feels like it’s been around for ages, but only has a gross of $32mil. Do we know what the actual budget of that movie was? It doesn’t look like some el cheapo pick up.

  22. jeffmcm says:

    “Alba would have definitely added some legitimacy”
    This is crazy to me. First of all because she’s a bad actress, only marginally better than Jessica Simpson, second of all because she hasn’t ever really opened a movie. Are we crediting Fantastic Four to her? I guess she has Honey to herself.

  23. The Carpetmuncher says:

    I don’t know about the budget, but The Illusionist is being self-distributed by the Yari Group after failing to get someone else to pay their price. But it has been doing quite well for a platform release, and has been doing so well because of word of mouth. It’s a sizeable hit for an indie.

  24. martin says:

    Illusionist has done enough to make the Prestige even a little jealous. No one expected that 4 months ago.

  25. jeffmcm says:

    They’re probably not too jealous, I would think The Prestige will open to over $20m.

  26. martin says:

    Perhaps Jeff, perhaps not.

  27. wolfgang says:

    BOM lists the production budget for The Illusionist at $16.5 million.
    Whether that’s accurate or not I can’t say, but I believe almost all of The Illusionist was filmed in Eastern Europe, where labor costs are a flat out bargain. Someone who works in low-budget film production told me the average wage in Eastern Europe is $100 a month.
    Looks like Yari’s film will do better than De Palma’s Black Dahlia, which was also filmed in Europe to hold down production costs.

  28. James Leer says:

    Alba’s only got surface assets and even those well-presented in a bikini couldn’t open “Into the Blue” to any more than $8 mil last year (she even had some mild “Sin City” buzz to coast on then).

  29. Into the Blue was a flawed concept from the get go. Girls wanna see hot guys minus clothes but don’t wanna go with their boyfriends because it means they get to ogle hot girls minus clothes.
    And vice versa.
    Plus, it looked awful.

Quote Unquotesee all »

“But okay, I promise you now that if I ever retire again, I’m going to ensure that I can’t walk it back. I’ll post a series of the most disgusting, offensive, outrageous statements you can ever imagine. That way it will be impossible for me to ever be employed again. No one is going to take my calls. No one is going to want to be seen with me. Oh, it will be scorched earth. I will have torched everything. I’m going to flame out in the most legendary fashion.”
~ Steven Soderbergh

I feel strongly connected to young cinephile culture. The thing about filmmaking—and cinephilia—is that you can’t keep hanging out with your own age group as you get older. They drop off, move somewhere. You can’t put together a crew of sixty-somethings. It’s the same for cinephilia: my original set of cinephile friends are watching DVDs at home or delving into 1958 episodes of ‘Gunsmoke,’ something like that. The people who are out there tend to be young, and I happen to be doing the same thing still, so it’s natural that I move in their circles.

In terms of the filmmaking, there was a gear shift: my first movies focused on people around my age, and I followed them for three films. Until The Unspeakable Act, I was using the same actors, not because of an affinity for people at a specific age, but because of my affinity for the actors. I like to work with actors a second time, especially if I don’t feel confident casting a new film. But The Unspeakable Act was a different script, and I had to cast all new people. Even for the older roles, I couldn’t get the people I’d worked with before. But when it was over, the same thing happened: I wanted to work with Tallie again in the worst way, and I started the process all over again.

I think Rohmer did something similar around the time of Perceval and Catherine de HeilbronnHe developed new groups of people that he liked to work with. These gear shifts are natural. Even if you want to follow certain actors to the end of their life (which I kind of do) the variety of ideas that you generate makes it necessary to change. And once you’ve made the change, you’ve got all these new people around.”
~ Dan Sallitt