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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/14

Looks like The Grudge 2 will be off about a third from The Grudge, which seems like a victory to me, given that it looks like an even crappier film than the original remake. Even with that drop, it will become (for now) a Top 20 opening in this year, like to come out around the same place as Underworld: Evolution, both in opening ($26.9m) and final number ($62).
The Departed will be close to $55 million after two weekends and will probably be behind both Flags of Our Fathers and The Prestige next weekend. But WB would be well advised to invest in a second wind campaign the week after, finding itself in position to get 3 more strong weeks out of November before Bond. (The most dangerous film for The Departed is, oddly, Borat, though it may not hit the adults squarely for its first few weeks.)
The opening of Man of the Year may seem disappointing, but it will probably be bigger than any two weekends for Wag The Dog, back in 1997. Wag was a truly great film and I haven

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9 Responses to “Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/14”

  1. Direwolf says:

    October shaping up well so far realtive to last year. Nothing doing exceptionally well but a bunch of OK box office performers vs. really lousy box office a year ago. Starting with Halloween thugh the compas toughen up.
    I don;t own Lionsgate anymore but it will be interesting to see well Saw 3 does given that there seems like more horror stuff out there this year. It is all doing OK though.
    Speaking of horror, I watched Shaun of the Dead last night. Really enjoyed it. Those Brits got a great sense of humor. What else has SImon Pegg and his sidekick done?
    DP, I emailed you a report on third party film financing.

  2. EDouglas says:

    One Night with the King did AMAZING… I’ve remembered it popping up on the release schedule from time to time over the last few years and every time, I was skeptical and sure enough, it didn’t come out. The original web site was SO ugly, too… really amateurish, so when it looked likely to come out this weekend (in wide release no less) and I saw how pro the web site had become, I was quite impressed but still skeptical… $5 million is nothing short of astounding. (BTW, I hear that Omar Shariff and PEter O’Toole appear in the movie for about ten minutes combined…what a ripoff)

  3. EDouglas says:

    Simon Pegg and Nick Frost did Spaced together… it’s very much in the Scrubs vein, but it’s about Pegg and his female roommate and the goings on at an apartment complex. (Frost played a war game nut who always dressed in military gear.)
    If Hot FUzz is half as funny as the teasers at San Diego, it’s going to be the funniest movie of ’06 for sure.

  4. jeffmcm says:

    I thought three wide-release horror movies this month didn’t seem like much, but then I realized that last year was basically the same except that the movies were even crudder (Doom and The Fog) so there was a huge pent-up demand that Saw II was able to capitalize on, which won’t be the case by the time Saw III comes out.

  5. Tofu says:

    Goodbye Employee & Chainsaw, you won’t be missed.
    Departed has had some excellent weekday numbers, so look for that to be going strong past the weekend. No, Borat won’t be hitting adults anytime soon, if at all. Prestige and Flags is where the real fight begins and ends.
    One Night With The King’s $1,652 per theater average is perfectly fine, but nowhere near jaw-dropping.

  6. Wrecktum says:

    I’m surprised that The Guardian hasn’t held up better. Not a great film by any stretch of the imagination, it did seem like the type of movie that would hold the interest of non-discriminating older audiences.

  7. Direwolf says:

    Thanks, ED. Mojo has Hot Fuzz for a March 07 release. FWIW, Spaced has a 9.5 rating out of 10 on IMDB. Might have to find the boxed set.

  8. EDouglas says:

    I haven’t had a chance to get the DVD yet and I’ve only seen most of the shows once, when they aired them on BBC America. If you have the DVD of Shaun of the Dead, check out the extras where Simon and Edgar go over the movie’s layout/script from beginning to end. It’s really amusing how they mapped out all the gags/beats.

  9. Joe Leydon says:

    EDouglas: Actually, O’Toole has just one scene. But Sharif has a bit more screen time. And I must say: I was pleasantly surprised by the film as a whole.

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“But okay, I promise you now that if I ever retire again, I’m going to ensure that I can’t walk it back. I’ll post a series of the most disgusting, offensive, outrageous statements you can ever imagine. That way it will be impossible for me to ever be employed again. No one is going to take my calls. No one is going to want to be seen with me. Oh, it will be scorched earth. I will have torched everything. I’m going to flame out in the most legendary fashion.”
~ Steven Soderbergh

I feel strongly connected to young cinephile culture. The thing about filmmaking—and cinephilia—is that you can’t keep hanging out with your own age group as you get older. They drop off, move somewhere. You can’t put together a crew of sixty-somethings. It’s the same for cinephilia: my original set of cinephile friends are watching DVDs at home or delving into 1958 episodes of ‘Gunsmoke,’ something like that. The people who are out there tend to be young, and I happen to be doing the same thing still, so it’s natural that I move in their circles.

In terms of the filmmaking, there was a gear shift: my first movies focused on people around my age, and I followed them for three films. Until The Unspeakable Act, I was using the same actors, not because of an affinity for people at a specific age, but because of my affinity for the actors. I like to work with actors a second time, especially if I don’t feel confident casting a new film. But The Unspeakable Act was a different script, and I had to cast all new people. Even for the older roles, I couldn’t get the people I’d worked with before. But when it was over, the same thing happened: I wanted to work with Tallie again in the worst way, and I started the process all over again.

I think Rohmer did something similar around the time of Perceval and Catherine de HeilbronnHe developed new groups of people that he liked to work with. These gear shifts are natural. Even if you want to follow certain actors to the end of their life (which I kind of do) the variety of ideas that you generate makes it necessary to change. And once you’ve made the change, you’ve got all these new people around.”
~ Dan Sallitt