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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Sunday Estimates by Klady

Well, there you go

48 Responses to “Sunday Estimates by Klady”

  1. Blackcloud says:

    Yawn.

  2. NYCAustin says:

    That’s a pretty darn good per-screen average for Little Miss Sunshine though! Y’all go see it when it comes to a screen near you!

  3. the keoki says:

    I love the legs on Cars!!! Remember when everyone thought that it was going to top out at 150 and be a bust? Good for Pixar!

  4. Goulet says:

    You mean the wheels on Cars?

  5. the keoki says:

    I love it ! That’s right the wheels!

  6. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    The opening weekend of a title like Little Miss Sunshine means jack all in the long run. Sure, it can use it as a platform, but the amount of movies with big limited release averages subsequently failing in wider release is getting longer as the years go on.
    But this movie stars Steve Carrell, Toni Collette and Greg Kinnear, surely they can work around that for some milleage.
    Cars will offically be the second highest grossing film of the summer when? Monday? Wedesday?
    Nice to see An Inconvenient Truth pass $20mil.
    And it took it’s time, but The Devil Wears Prada finally leapfrogged over Superman! Yay.

  7. waveblue says:

    Hmmm… why no update on this comment from Friday’s numbers?
    “Lady In The Water will balance out through the weekend, so the big Friday drop will not be the weekend drop, but still, getting to $60 million domestic will be a challenge. The film still has a chance to hit black ink, thanks to its $70 million budget, depending on Shyamalan

  8. David Poland says:

    Uh… that was my lead, Wave…
    “Well, there you go

  9. waveblue says:

    No, I really enjoyed “Lady in the Water”, but I’m still curious about its poor performance and bad overall reception. Just didn’t make that connection on your opening.
    I just picked up the M. Night book and plan to dig into it tonight

  10. Bart Smith says:

    Cars will offically be the second highest grossing film of the summer when? Monday? Wedesday?
    It already is (as of probably Saturday).

  11. Dan Geiser says:

    The parents of Barnyard kids might also want to provide some explanation regarding the male cows with udders.

  12. Blackcloud says:

    “The Friday drops in the Top Ten almost exactly mirrored the Friday drops.”
    The drops mirrored themselves? I don’t get it.

  13. Jimmy the Gent says:

    Two topics up for discussion.
    1. Anyone else annoyed by the LA Times story about conservative lawmakers wanting to make sure Oliver Stone didn’t add any conspiracy theories to WTX? There seems to be a strain of disrespect disguised as “concern for the public’s feelings” running through the story. I’ve never been a big fan of showing a movie to certain groups in order to ease their concerns. It puts artist in an awkward position. I think Stone has earned the right to make whatever movie he wants without getting approval from certain groups. Stone is in a long line of artists who are not treated with the respect they deserve. Platoon, JFK, Natural Born Killers, and Nixon are landmakrs in American pop-plitical filmmaking. Even Any Given Sunday should be remembered for showing the world that Jamie Foxx was a natural born movie star.
    2. Who else thinks the trailer for The Departed kicks ass? Why isn’t it playing NTFF? I think it needs something bug for it to be remembered come awards time. Is October really the best time for it? I think the first week of December would be perfect. DiCaprio’s acting seems to get better with every Scorsese movie. Damon looks properly sleazy. Sheen and Baldwin look effortless. I think the girl from Running Scared and Down to the Bone looks like she’s ready to break out. And Nicholson looks to give his first truly great evil performance since Batman. You gotta love the Van Morrison song. The Departed is the best trailer following Marie Antoinette.

  14. jeffmcm says:

    The Departed trailer is much better than the Marie Antoinette trailer.
    As for Woody Allen, he can work with whatever actors he wants, he gets the budgets he needs to make a movie annually, in NYC or London…what else does he need to ‘loosen up’ and why make two movies a year when he has trouble maintaining quality with one a year?
    He’s too set in his ways to do anything different ever again.

  15. Tofu says:

    Nothing to say on Vice… ?
    Huh… Guess there really ISN’T anything to say on Vice. Didn’t open big… Didn’t open small. The reviews and word of mouth are likely the worst in Mann’s career, so Collateral legs aren’t looking so hot. A $90 million ending would be a win, as Mr. Poland pointed out.
    Crowd reaction was good last night, and delivered on my impossible expectations, easily making it my favorite of the year.
    The Departed… Freaks me out a little. Whalberg, DiCaprio, and Damon all have the standard American leading man look… Making their combined impact lessened and bordering on confusing.

  16. EDouglas says:

    Scoop is Woody’s biggest opening movie since Small Time Crooks and that’s in quite a few less theatres than many of his movies in between opened again. To me, that tells me that Match Point did the trick in raising awareness, and I think with the right expansion it could end up making closer to $13 million or more. (And I don’t think Scoop was marketed that well either so for it to do that well is pretty amazing.)

  17. EDouglas says:

    I wish I could go back in time and find all the critical raves of Shyamalan’s earlier movies like “Signs” and “Unbreakable” which I thought were some of the worst movies of the 21st Century… and now I’m the only person who seems to be liking his movies while all his fans are turning on him.

  18. jeffmcm says:

    You’re right about Signs. It is an atrocity in every way excepf for cinematography and music.

  19. Bart Smith says:

    “The Departed… Freaks me out a little. Whalberg, DiCaprio, and Damon all have the standard American leading man look… Making their combined impact lessened and bordering on confusing.”
    I think that’s very much fitting in with the original INFERNAL AFFAIRS. The DiCaprio and Damon characters are intended to be mirror images of one another.

  20. anghus says:

    i liked Signs and Unbreakable. Lady in the Water sucked ass. Here’s why. Spoilers forthcoming.
    Exposition.
    Every piece of the story came from some really awful exposition, the ‘bedtime story’ given in little details over the span of a film by an annoying asian girl who sounded like the chinese lucille ball. And the explinations were so random.
    “Mr Cleavland… i just got home from clubbing, and let me tell you another aspect of the story”
    what the fucking fuck? are you kidding me?
    Why did no one ever question this whole insane mess. Couldn’t ONE character say ‘this shit sounds really messed up. Everyone instantly buys into the girl from another world with extremely vague powers and idiotic requirement to get her back home.
    The Ending.
    Oh my god. Wicker Dogs. Wicker Monkeys, the guy at the end who turns out to be “The Guardian”, even though we have no idea WHY he is the Guardian, or how exactly Cleavland figures it out, other than looking over. And i’m glad the Guardian’s powers over these beasts involved a long staring contest. God forbid we get a final confrontation that involves something other than atmospheric standing around.
    The Film Critic
    Sweet merciful god. can you say ‘heavy handed’?
    The Language
    Narfs? Scrants? Just ridiculous.
    not only did i think it sucked. i think it was insulting. Night traded in clever third act paradigm shifts for really bad exposition and dialogue cornier than the state of Iowa.

  21. Josh Massey says:

    I loved “Signs” and “Unbreakable.” I’ll admit it.

  22. Spacesheik says:

    “Superman Returns won

  23. jennab says:

    Dave, I’ll betcha ten bucks Baryard opens above (way) $10M. Ever since the “Dude…I got a arm!” tail end of the trailer, that is all my 10-year-old son and his friends can say. They think the trailer is HI-LARIOUS. And these are kids who love Family Guy (bad mom, I know) and Dodgeball. It’s…well, I guess edgier is the word than that last animated farm movie (with Roseanne) that, even 2 years ago, all the kids thought was too babyish.
    IMO, Doesn’t matter when Ant Bully opens…just did not catch fire with intended audience. Think it struck tweens as too…”wholesome.”

  24. Spacesheik says:

    Aye my kids been looking forward to BARNYARD also for some reason and keep watching the trailer on the apple trailer page.
    ANT BULLY – Poland was right – should have never been released now. Besides its the 3rd Ant film (after A BUGS LIFE and ANTZ) – who would wanna see it?

  25. White Label says:

    Re: Barnyard – “but it is going to find some of the younger kids who love animals and parents who are nervous about the emotional safety of their under 8s.”
    DP, is that a passive-aggressive snarky comment about those of us in flyover country?
    Re: Woody Allen team w/ HBO v. theatrical. I will pay to see Woody in the theaters, I will not pay an extra $10 a month for HBO. I disagree with the previous comment that actors would clamor to work with the woodman for a TV project. He’d still get good actors, but there would be more delays as it would be a second-string project for people, or TV actors who are shooting between seasons. Maybe Woody could do some shorts, or a miniseries type thing. That would get peoples’ attention as well as letting Woody test some plots out before throwing them into the theater. (Scoop would be a fantastic 42 minute show.) Kind of an Alfred Hitchcock Presents type thing with Woody doing an intro. That, I might be willing to pony up for.
    Manoj: I’ll sit at Josh’s lunch table, I really did like Unbreakable–it was the first good movie of that year’s awards season.

  26. David Poland says:

    What would that have to do with “flyover country?” Maybe you’re thinking of someone who obsesses on red and blue states.
    As for the HBO… one argument is HBO… pay-per-view is another.

  27. Telemachos says:

    A $90 million ending would be a win, as Mr. Poland pointed out.
    It’ll still be a bitter “win”, given the huge investment in the production (the studio says $135 million; others say $150-180 million). This will be one of those that ultimately ekes out a profit on home video.
    I don’t think it’ll have particularly good legs — word of mouth is extremely mixed, even among Mann fans.

  28. martin says:

    in the friday thread i said vice would do 90 mill (which dave predicted too?). Anyway, I think 90 might be a bit high… this film is not feeding off the sweet word of mouth that collateral had, and it doesn’t have the (then powerful) cruise factor. So… realistically, Vice is looking at something like this:
    $75 domestic
    $125 foreign
    $60 DVD
    $30 ancillaries
    After 33% of theatrical is given to theaters, you’re left with $223. Subtract $200 for budget and worldwide marketing and you’re left with modest profits… as long as there weren’t any huge point deals. It could bounce more into the positive if international crowds really go for it… but I think these numbers are realistic. Conclusion – is not a disappointment, is not a major winner either. THe studio rolled the dice and they didn’t lose. They just didn’t hit the jackpot.

  29. martin says:

    And then you look at a $5 mill movie like Clerks 2:
    $20 mill budget and WW marketing
    $35 mill worldwide gross
    Break even WW theatrical. Plus $25 mill. DVD sales, another $5-10 mill ancillary (tv, etc.) and you’ve got similar profits to biggest action movie of the summer (vice) and funnily enough, perhaps MORE profit than WB will make on Superman… The moral of the story? WB should have had Kevin Smith direct a $5 mill. Superman Returns.

  30. Lota says:

    Someone said “Baryard” higher up. The title is available so make that movie. Sounds more exciting than Barnyard by half.
    I will hurt myself if Miami Vice makes less than The Break-up. Best that can be hoped for is that after DMC drops off a little MV can hold.

  31. Hallick says:

    It would be a little amazing if Miami Vice gets past 60 million. There were at least a dozen shots (the camera kind) that nearly compelled me to drag people out of the neighboring theaters to see something miraculous, if I weren’t so sure I’d miss the next jaw-drppper.
    And there’s a moment involving an up to that point disposable side character, somewhere between the closing 30 and 45 minute mark, that has to be the oh-my-GOD-DAMN moment of the year (“…medulla…”). A total emotional orgasm.
    But under all of that brilliance is such a routine plot – which isn’t exactly box office poison, even if it should be – but it is the reason I’m only going to see the movie maybe one more time; and it’s the reason I can’t muster the enthusiasm to cajole friends and family into the theater with me.
    Yet the real reason it probably won’t clear 60 million is because most people I know – and not even just the dullards – would probably come out of the movie complaining, “I didn’t understand a word they were saying”. And I love that aspect of the movie, but usually the cheese stands very, very alone in that regard.

  32. palmtree says:

    “I didn’t understand a word they were saying”.
    After a while I didn’t even try, and it didn’t really even matter anyways. Like Mr. Poland said in his review, you’ll catch up with it later on.
    My problem with the dialogue though stems from the sound quality, which I just thought was awful. I remember one scene in particular towards the end where you hear the production sound go up and down in the mix with a loud hiss. I think a lot of the dialogue failed to impact due to not being aurally up to par with what we expect from major films.

  33. Telemachos says:

    My problem with the dialogue though stems from the sound quality, which I just thought was awful.
    Yes, absolutely. At the screening I saw, I was almost convinced that I was seeing some sort of un-finalized mix… except that it was a mere 3 days before release, which would basically be impossible. Given that Mann’s films usually have absolutely stellar mixes, I was surprised at how rough/unpolished VICE’s was. (The gunshots, though, were up to Mann’s typically brutal loudness.)

  34. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    “2. Who else thinks the trailer for The Departed kicks ass?”
    I made a whole blog entry about The Departed trailer – http://kamikazecamel.blogspot.com/2006/07/departed-trailer-blahness.html – THIS is meant to be an Oscar contender? Righteo.
    Does Barnyard really include the line “Dude…I got a arm!” if so, not only are they teaching kids that bulls have udders, but also incorrect grammar. I got a arm? lol.

  35. martin says:

    interesting to hear the sound design is iffy on Vice. I was watching a bunch of the clips on the vice website and there were some really cheesy, lame sound effects in there, like they just threw it together. I get the feeling Mann turned in his final edit so late that they were doing final sound work (usually last in the chain) right till release. Too bad since his movies really benefit from great sound design.

  36. TJFar67 says:

    What are the budgets on Woody Allen movies anyway? They must be low enough to be profitable. Or else, he would have trouble getting financing and distribution deals. He seems to be in a bubble where financial or critical success has no bearing on his movies getting produced and theatrical distribution.

  37. TJFar67 says:

    What are the budgets on Woody Allen movies anyway? They must be low enough to be profitable. Or else, he would have trouble getting financing and distribution deals. He seems to be in a bubble where financial or critical success has no bearing on his movies getting produced and theatrical distribution.
    ^
    (Oops –hit post too soon.)
    But until Woody has trouble getting financing, there is no reason for him to seek a HBO deal. However, I would love to see him do a “Curb YOur Enthusiam” type show. The freedom and flexiblity that HBO could inspiring to Mr Allen. Hell, work with Larry David on season six of his show. I’d subscribe to HBO for that.

  38. David Poland says:

    Well, the reason Woody Allen is in Europe is because no one in America will pay for his movies anymore. His movies are now domestic pick-ups for a fraction of their production cost.
    I would argue that the movies he is making now are influenced by the circumstance. And the pressure on each film to make money in increasing. Waiting until he can’t get financed anywhere in the world anymore is an awfully dangerous game of chicken to play.

  39. AnonChicago says:

    David, Woody needs to retire. Or do like Altman and try another media, like opera.

  40. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Little Miss Sunshine had an excellent start … though I worry that Searchlight is endangering their picture by waiting another couple of weeks before going wide.
    She expands to NYC suburbs this Friday, expands again on 8/11 and goes national on 8/18. Could do major damage to “World Trade Center” — especially if both pics play in the same theater.

  41. jeffmcm says:

    Do those two movies have anything to do with one another? A PG-13 uplifting drama and an R-rated raunchy family comedy?

  42. Direwolf says:

    Regal reported today and I beleive their film cost was 54% Unless the studio take on intl is incredibly high, 33% is too low. I beleive that Regal generally reports film rental costs of 54-55%.

  43. David Poland says:

    Theatres get 45% as a rule now

  44. Direwolf says:

    Thanks, Dave.
    A crummy report from Regal. I’ve never quite understood how Regal or AMC could underperform the box office in any quarter given their size and geographic breadth. Regal seemed to admit they lost a little share and said the the average ticket price was held back by too many kids. (it was up 4 cents vs. a year ago). Margins got squeezed a bit relative to expectations. In hindsight expectations were probably a little high after great margin performance in 1Q.
    The stock deserved its 5% fall but doesn’t have much more downside given the hefty dividend and 6% plus yield. And 3Q box office is shaping well relative to current analyst estimates. But it is early. I own RGC for my clients. I’ll hold on until mid-September at least to get another quarterly dividend. In the meantime, I’ll hope the box office holds to an upper single digit gain for the quarter and cross my fingers we get an announcement of an IPO for National Cinemedia.
    RGC this quarter is just like the film you’ve been waiting for that doesn’t quite live up your expectations. It wasn’t a waste of money but you wanted more.

  45. Josh Massey says:

    Woody doesn’t need to retire, or do TV. He needs to CUT BACK. If he did a movie every two or three years, they could all be good as “Match Point.”
    Imagine if you could cut recent crap like “Hollywood Ending,” “Anything Else,” “The Curse of the Jade Scorpion” and “Melinda and Melinda” off of his recent resume, just leaving “Small Time Crooks” (very underrated), “Match Point” and “Sweet and Lowdown” as his most recent films. His works would still be heralded as the events they once were.

  46. Sandy says:

    The coming weekend? Talledega Nights will be #1, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami Vice takes a drastic drop and fall behind Pirates.

  47. palmtree says:

    I don’t think Woody needs to do anything different. He seems to be more interested in being steadily prolific than in trying to get Oscar’s attention or creating “masterpieces.” He’s also busy maintaining his career as a jazz musician. I think his BO track record is offset by getting major talent every time. And I’ve heard that Scoop is a fun time.

  48. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    Personally, I don’t care if Woody keeps doing what he’s doing. Every now and then he makes something I really like. I actually enjoyed Melinda & Melinda and Match Point was in my Top 10 of last year. Small Time Crooks I didn’t like too much outside of Elaine May and Tracy Ullman (god, she does NOT work enough).

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