By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Why Snakes On A Plane Changing Dates Makes No Sense
So. there is now this hum out there… “If I had Snakes On A Plane getting all this online buzz, I’d jump on it and put it out right away!”
The most obvious reason not to leap as though choices were free, specific to New Line, is called The Real Cancun. New Line got excited about the film after some strong early screenings. They rushed it into theaters, trying to catch a wave, and got slaughtered for their effort… more because they had to overspend on ads because there was no time for a proper publicity campaign. You can say, “But that film sucked” all you like. But for one thing, you have no idea of Snakes is any good. And second, test screening audiences really liked Cancun.
This is the arrogance of the media, on and off the web. If it’s on our radar, it must be on everyone’s radar. Well, it isn’t. As I have always said, the internet geek audience is worth $5 million – $8 million. If you want more than that, you have to reach the rest of the audience. And the trend in youth oriented movies is great success with looooooong lead campaigns and not quick hits.
To go into the summer, May-July, would be idiotic on every level. It’s incredibly expensive to get attention and if people are into Snakes On A Plane, they might also be the audience for, say…. I’m just guessing here… M:I3PoseidonX3NachoLibreClickSupermanPirates2. Those are 7 sure-fire MUST SEES in 10 weeks… all grounded in the same Snakes demographic… most reaching far beyond.
And besides the fact that New Line already is selling an April movie and has a May release on their schedule, ramping up a full campaign while still making changes in post is like throwing money into the garbage and then pulling the can into your living room, next to the drapes, before setting it on fire.
And where is the obvious argument for an August release of Snakes? A $16 million opening and a $58 million domestic gross for Red Eye. If New Line is lucky and good, they can improve on that opening. If they are good at selling and the movie is actually entertaining and they can find a way to get someone with a vagina in the door, they could take that better start and reach a similar 4x multiple.
But most importantly of all… and this speaks to much of what I feel about the media’s rush to push this industry into fulfilling our whims with their hundreds of millions of dollars… the excitement of the film is not going away because some journalists just figured it out. Snakes will be a great media story in July, when the hard push starts. And it will be the change of pace movie after a steady diet of very expensive big action films (which incidentally, is also the strategy on Miami Vice).
When did very smart, very experienced people turn into hyperactive puppies licking the glass as soon as they get a whiff of dinner? As Samuel L. Jackson once said, by way of QT, “Come on, Yolanda! What’s Fonzie like?” “Cool..” What? “Cool.” “Correctamundo! And that’s what we’re gonna be – We’re gonna be cool.”