By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
On Ebert & Crash
You know, Roger may be pushing it to call a Crash win likely… and I got the vibe that the film is going to come up a little short of beating Brokeback Mountain on Sunday night… but it is far, far, far from crazy.
Crash is not a longshot to upset Brokeback. My guess – and that is all it can ever be – is that the two films will end up within single digits of one another in the voting. So I see it as a matter of a few hundred votes one way or the other. You BBM obsessives should be more than a little nervous.
The only wide open category in the Top Eight is Supporting Actor, though some people are pushing the idea of upsets in the two Actress categories.
And at the end of the night, let’s not all be shocked at the same time if Memoirs of a Geisha ends up with the second or third highest Oscar total.