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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Which Award Show Is The Best Predictor Of Them All?

BAFTA missed Munich

13 Responses to “Which Award Show Is The Best Predictor Of Them All?”

  1. Sam says:

    Looks like you’ve already done the work to answer your own question. But how do these organizations hold up over the past few years?
    It looks like the best Oscar predictor of the past continues to be. The DGA matched all five Best Picture nominees once again, for the fourth year running.

  2. Josh says:

    Basically, it’s a total crapshoot.

  3. EDouglas says:

    The guilds seem to be the closest right now… isn’t it 5/5 for both Directors and Producers guild?

  4. Bruce says:

    The guilds are the best.

  5. Hopscotch says:

    I’ve been telling friends for the last two years that the BFCA are the closest I’ve seen to reflect the winners. The Guilds are just about as close, but they’ve been off on different years.

  6. Sam says:

    No, the Producers Guild had “Walk the Line” in place of “Munich.” Still, 4/5 isn’t bad for the PGA, which is often 3/5.
    My guess is the SAG’s got the winners for all four acting categories right, but for the noms themselves it only had a perfect score for Supporting Actress (4/5 on the other three). The WGA got 8/10 (Syriana placing in different categories makes 9/10 the best it could have done).

  7. Goulet says:

    Who gives a crap? Seriously, what’s the point of giving out awards if you don’t even vote for your favorites but for who you think will make it at the Oscars?
    At least I’m pretty sure the HFPA actually likes the movies it votes for. BFCA are just playing the prediction game, hoping to be perceived as having influence than raking in the attention/money. Pathetic.

  8. chmoye says:

    You didn’t mention that the BFCA got all five Best Pictures by using 10 nomination slots. I could have done that myself. 😉

  9. David Poland says:

    HFPA had 10… and missed 2.
    Snf no, Goulet… HFPA is teh most political of the groups, except for member preferences by some of the guilds.

  10. Mackygee says:

    Doesn’t the fact that BAFTA left off MUNICH have to do with release dates in Britain? Wouldn’t it be theoretically nominatable next year?
    (Or am I correctly remembering there was some foul-up in getting
    dvds to the nominating committee over there? God knows, there were enough snafus involved with the way MUNICH has been released and marketed.)

  11. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    WAY TO GO BROADCAST FILM CRITICS!!!!! How many more years of bragging rights does this give your pathetic institution. John Leguizamo sure was right.
    Sorry, but holy fuck.
    Can we also acknowledge that the Hollywood Foreign Press were pretty much the only organisation that thought for itself. BBM, GN&GL, Constant Gardener, Match Point and History of Violence – was never gonna happen with AMPAS, and now that the noms are out it’s making me appreciate the globes all the more.

  12. bipedalist says:

    It’s rather sad that you have to pat yourself and your critics group on the back continually because, for once, you/it got the one movie other people expected would have dropped off (and maybe you should open your stubborn heart to reasons why instead of continually stating, they just don’t get it – why don’t they get it? because they’re not Spielberg apologists. Scorsese apologists, yes, but Spielberg could have done MUCH better). SO FUCKING WHAT? Get over yourself. It’s unbecoming.

  13. LesterFreed says:

    Why not relax with your angry spew, bipedal. We get it already.
    The Hollywood Foreign Press also had 2 different categories. Comedy and Drama to put films into.

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“Well, actually, of that whole group that I call the post-60s anti-authority auteurs, a lot of them came from television. Peckinpah’s the only one whose television work represents his feature work. I mean, like the only one. Mark Rydell can direct a really good episode of ‘Gunsmoke’ and Michael Ritchie can direct a really good episode of ‘The Big Valley,’ but they don’t necessarily look like The Candidate. But Peckinpah’s stuff, even the scripts he wrote that he didn’t even direct, have a Peckinpah feel – the way I think there’s a Corbucci West – suggest a Peckinpah West. That even in his random episodes that he wrote for ‘Gunsmoke’ – it’s right there.”
~ Quentin Tarantino

“The thought is interrupted by an odd interlude. We are speaking in the side room of Casita, a swish and fairly busy Italian bistro in Aoyama – a district of Tokyo usually so replete with celebrities that they spark minimal fuss. Kojima’s fame, however, exceeds normal limits and adoring staff have worked out who their guest is. He stops mid-sentence and points up towards the speakers, delighted. The soft jazz that had been playing discreetly across the restaurant’s dark, hardwood interior has suddenly been replaced with the theme music from some of Kojima’s hit games. Harry Gregson-Williams’ music is sublime in its context but ‘Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots’ is not, Kojima acknowledges, terribly restauranty. He pauses, adjusting a pair of large, blue-framed glasses of his own design, and returns to the way in which games have not only influenced films, but have also changed the way in which people watch them. “There are stories being told [in cinema] that my generation may find surprising but which the gamer generation doesn’t find weird at all,” he says.
~ Hideo Kojima