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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Posted Tuesday, January 31st, 2006 - 13 Comments »

Which Award Show Is The Best Predictor Of Them All?

BAFTA missed Munich

13 Comments »

13 Responses to “Which Award Show Is The Best Predictor Of Them All?”

  1. Sam says:
    January 31, 2006 at 11:51 am

    Looks like you’ve already done the work to answer your own question. But how do these organizations hold up over the past few years?
    It looks like the best Oscar predictor of the past continues to be. The DGA matched all five Best Picture nominees once again, for the fourth year running.

  2. Josh says:
    January 31, 2006 at 11:53 am

    Basically, it’s a total crapshoot.

  3. EDouglas says:
    January 31, 2006 at 12:15 pm

    The guilds seem to be the closest right now… isn’t it 5/5 for both Directors and Producers guild?

  4. Bruce says:
    January 31, 2006 at 12:15 pm

    The guilds are the best.

  5. Hopscotch says:
    January 31, 2006 at 12:21 pm

    I’ve been telling friends for the last two years that the BFCA are the closest I’ve seen to reflect the winners. The Guilds are just about as close, but they’ve been off on different years.

  6. Sam says:
    January 31, 2006 at 12:41 pm

    No, the Producers Guild had “Walk the Line” in place of “Munich.” Still, 4/5 isn’t bad for the PGA, which is often 3/5.
    My guess is the SAG’s got the winners for all four acting categories right, but for the noms themselves it only had a perfect score for Supporting Actress (4/5 on the other three). The WGA got 8/10 (Syriana placing in different categories makes 9/10 the best it could have done).

  7. Goulet says:
    January 31, 2006 at 6:07 pm

    Who gives a crap? Seriously, what’s the point of giving out awards if you don’t even vote for your favorites but for who you think will make it at the Oscars?
    At least I’m pretty sure the HFPA actually likes the movies it votes for. BFCA are just playing the prediction game, hoping to be perceived as having influence than raking in the attention/money. Pathetic.

  8. chmoye says:
    January 31, 2006 at 9:32 pm

    You didn’t mention that the BFCA got all five Best Pictures by using 10 nomination slots. I could have done that myself. ;)

  9. David Poland says:
    January 31, 2006 at 9:41 pm

    HFPA had 10… and missed 2.
    Snf no, Goulet… HFPA is teh most political of the groups, except for member preferences by some of the guilds.

  10. Mackygee says:
    January 31, 2006 at 10:51 pm

    Doesn’t the fact that BAFTA left off MUNICH have to do with release dates in Britain? Wouldn’t it be theoretically nominatable next year?
    (Or am I correctly remembering there was some foul-up in getting
    dvds to the nominating committee over there? God knows, there were enough snafus involved with the way MUNICH has been released and marketed.)

  11. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:
    January 31, 2006 at 11:14 pm

    WAY TO GO BROADCAST FILM CRITICS!!!!! How many more years of bragging rights does this give your pathetic institution. John Leguizamo sure was right.
    Sorry, but holy fuck.
    Can we also acknowledge that the Hollywood Foreign Press were pretty much the only organisation that thought for itself. BBM, GN&GL, Constant Gardener, Match Point and History of Violence – was never gonna happen with AMPAS, and now that the noms are out it’s making me appreciate the globes all the more.

  12. bipedalist says:
    February 1, 2006 at 7:33 am

    It’s rather sad that you have to pat yourself and your critics group on the back continually because, for once, you/it got the one movie other people expected would have dropped off (and maybe you should open your stubborn heart to reasons why instead of continually stating, they just don’t get it – why don’t they get it? because they’re not Spielberg apologists. Scorsese apologists, yes, but Spielberg could have done MUCH better). SO FUCKING WHAT? Get over yourself. It’s unbecoming.

  13. LesterFreed says:
    February 1, 2006 at 8:56 am

    Why not relax with your angry spew, bipedal. We get it already.
    The Hollywood Foreign Press also had 2 different categories. Comedy and Drama to put films into.

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