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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Momma's Got A Gun

Update – Sunday Estimate by klady
3-Day Estimates / Weekend / % Change / Cume
Big Momma’s House / 27.4 / – / 37.4
Nanny McPhee / 14 / – / 14
Underworld: Evolution / 10.8 / -60% / 44
Annapolis / 7.5 / – / 7.5
Hoodwinked / 7.3 / -30% / 37.6
Brokeback Mountain / 6.3 / -16% / 50.7
Glory Road / 5.1 / -42% / 34.7
Last Holiday / 4.9 / -44% / 32.7
Chronicles of Narnia / 4.3 / -31% / 277.7
Fun with Dick & Jane / 3.6 / -37% / 106.3
============================================
Why is it that MAtrin Lawrence with breasts is so eternally funny? Well, Fox did the right thing here. The bathing suit campaign took an old idea that people liked and made it look fun again.
Nanny McPhee smelled bigger to me, though the limited advertsising probbaly assured otherwise. It we be interesting to see what kind of legs the old girl has.
You do the rest… my computer battery is running out.
Big Momma’s House 2 / 7.7 / – / 3261 / 7.7
Nanny McPhee / 3.6 / – / 1995 / 3.6
Underworld: Evolution / 3.4 / -66% / 3207 / 36.6
Annapolis / 2.6 / – / 1605 / 2.6
Brokeback Mountain / 1.8 / -16% / 1654 / 46.3
Hoodwinked / 1.6 / -24% / 3020 / 31.9
Glory Road / 1.5 / -41% / 2397 / 31.1
Last Holiday / 1.4 / -42% / 2442 / 29.2
Fun with Dick & Jane / 1.1 / -37% / 2132 / 103.8
Chronicles of Narnia / 1 / -27% / 2170 / 274.4
The Matador / 1 / 789% / 885 / 2.6

52 Responses to “Momma's Got A Gun”

  1. joefitz84 says:

    Have you seen a more unimpressive weekend for movies?
    And BBM has no shot at 100 million. No matter how much people try and spin it.

  2. Josh says:

    They did everything they could do to get “Dick and Jane” to 100$ mill.

  3. ebennett says:

    Between $8 to $9 million was expected for Nanny McPhee, so it’s on track, or a bit better actually. Remember, it’s only on 2,000 screens.

  4. PandaBear says:

    The kids and the families aren’t supporting “Nanny McPhee”. I don’t blame them. The makeup looks terrible. She frightens me.

  5. ebennett says:

    Not sure where you get the idea that kids and families aren’t supporting Nanny. The show I went to this afternoon was packed and the one after that was sold out, according to the board at the ticket booth.

  6. Roxane says:

    Joe,
    Unfortunately BM can still make $100 mil especially if it wins the Oscar for BP. It should reach $50 mil by the end of this weekend then get a nice boost after Oscar noms next Tuesday.Then due to the Olympics it will be running on fumes until Oscar night.However, if BM wins BP it will be left in theaters forever and ever and ever like M$B until it crawls to $100 mil.

  7. MattM says:

    The question mark is how much of a bump McPhee gets Friday-Saturday. Recall that Hoodwinked doubled its grosses. I don’t expect that much out of it though.
    And Brokeback has clearly hit a wall. Sure, it’ll get a jump with the nominations, but I think it’s reached the point where it’s pushing the rock uphill.
    If Big Momma 2 can do 22-24M, is it possible Madea’s Family Reunion could open to 30+?

  8. cullen says:

    does anyone know who won the DGA award? the ceremony was tonight…i assume it was Ang Lee…

  9. Blackcloud says:

    “Have you seen a more unimpressive weekend for movies?”
    Weren’t we asking this every weekend for a while back in the fall?

  10. Wrecktum says:

    Why would it be unfortunate for Brokeback Mountain to make $100m?

  11. Rufus Masters says:

    I admit it. I paid for a family of five to see Big Momma. You know what?
    It wasn’t that bad. If you like Martin L, you will enjoy it.

  12. Aladdin Sane says:

    I hear BBM will be on DVD come March 7, so it’ll have to make its money in theaters before then, unless they decide to push the release date back (which would be a good idea – if it were up to me that is)

  13. peteinportland says:

    Come on folks, don’t be lazy with the math for BBM. This movie has been out for 8 weeks already and only had a minimal drop on Friday which due to the Oprah BBM show could very well be made up over the weekend.
    On Tuesday, it should receive 9-10 Oscar noms and probably lead the pack. Pics with high Oscar noms usually see a decent weekend after Oscar noms and steady box office until the Oscars.
    BBM will probably be near the 55 mill mark by next Friday when it will open very wide to over 2,000 screens. It will obviously have a stronger week than this week and end up at over 65 mill by the second weekend in Feb. In the four weeks left leading up to Oscar, it will make 25 mill easy (being very conservative here).
    That puts it at a conservative 90 mill by Oscar night. At this point, it is HEAVILY favored to win Best Pic and Best Director. Does anyone really think the Best Oscar Pic winner won’t make 10 mill in March after the Oscars (assuming it wins)? The nominated Best Pic films still in theaters always play decently in March and add to their box office, even the ones that don’t win.
    Because of its Oscar status, this movie still has a large auidence that will see it that has not seen it yet (multiple Oscar noms will make it “safe” for many more people to see–an Oscar win makes it “safe” for even more people). It also has demonstrated great legs. BBM isn’t leaving theaters for at least 8-10 weeks minimum (and probably won’t leave the Top Ten for almost that entire period).
    Sorry, the film has a lock on 100 mill and probably a bit more than that.

  14. palmtree says:

    Ang Lee won the DGA…again.

  15. EDouglas says:

    Hopefully, history won’t repeat itself and he’ll get his well-deserved Oscar this time.

  16. Nicol D says:

    I have a business offer for anyone willing to take what I think is a not so very big chance. A new pay-cable channel.
    The Brokeback Channel.
    All Brokeback. All the time. 24/7. 365 days a year. Forever.
    Never let a moment of your life go by withough being able to see a frame of Brokeback Mountain.
    Think of the possibilities…
    Just before work…(Have we hit the first encounter yet?)
    While changing the kids…(But Ennis is a good father!)
    Just before bedtime…(I need a soulful cry to put me to sleep).
    Tired of Christmas specials in December?
    Need something to watch other than the Olympics?
    Desperate for counter-programming to the Superbowl?
    All Brokeback. All the time. Forever.

  17. EDouglas says:

    It’s a great idea.. run the movie on an endless loop with running commentary by various guests.

  18. snazzy says:

    BBM didn’t invent undue media attention. Remember the Matrix juggernaut?
    And what’s the deal with proclaiming BBM hitting a brick wall? Um, the movie did 3 million dollars on Saturday. Oscar noms are Tuesday. Trust me, no one involved with this movie is wringing their hands this morning.
    Well, in the parallel universe in which the BBM doubters dwell, Munich is getting 9 Oscar nominations on Tuesday, and its boxoffice prospects didn’t dry up last week. Now THERE is a movie that hit a brick wall!

  19. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Big Momma nearly knocked off MI:2 the first time out. She rode word of mouth to get over $100M.
    Remember, if it ain’t fried, it ain’t done!

  20. hcat says:

    I doubt $100 Million was ever more than a pipe dream when they first released BBM, and now it is almost inevitable. On Thursday it passed Lost in Translation to be the highest grosser of all of Focus Feature’s releases. It will probably end up topping sideways and the penguins, outgrossing all of Searchlight’s and WIP’s leaving only SPC’s CTHD and a handfull of Miramax films (most of which had the budgets of major studio films)to be one of the highest grossing films ever to be released by one of dependents.

  21. Roxane says:

    I don’t know about hitting a brick wall but BBM does not look like it can expand much more.BBM earned an estimated $6.4 mil this weekend for a not so impressive $3800 PTA after adding almost 500 theaters.BBM doesn’t seem to being playing that well in it’s new theaters and is probably played out in some of its best theaters. Oscar noms will give it a boost but next weekend is also Superbowl Sunday which generally leads to low weekend multipliers.Depending on how many theaters are added next weekend BBM could have a PTA of 3000 or less. At that point theater owners should start dumping BBM in favor of more popular films like Big Momma’s House 2.

  22. Melquiades says:

    I think peteinportland hit the nail on the head in his post above. No way Brokeback isn’t at $90M by Oscar night. Theater owners won’t drop the Oscar frontrunner.

  23. Fades To Black says:

    It had a great run. But it’s market is totally maxed out. Oscar nom’s or not.

  24. palmtree says:

    Thanks for saying it snazzy. The DGA was Spielberg’s last chance to get back in the race. I think he could still get the Oscar nom, but it would largely be vestigial.

  25. PandaBear says:

    An “All Brokeback All the Time Channel” would get 8% of the population watching. All the time. Daily. Haven’t they been trying to get this channel for years? Now’s the time.

  26. DannyBoy says:

    Roxane, first, I was surprised myself that BM didn’t do better this last weekend, considering the big Oprah show push, but there are still two possible factors that you’ve overlooked in your prediction about

  27. etslee says:

    It’s fun to read all the limitations some people are putting on Brokeback, whether for awards or box office, and see this film keep proving them wrong.

  28. DannyBoy says:

    Right, etslee. Right now in terms of REAL DOLLARS, “Brokeback” is more profitable than “King Kong”, and in terms of profit earned on financial investment, it’s WAY, WAY above “King Kong.” Still, even if “Brokeback” wins 9 Oscars, grosses 125 million bucks, there will be people who say: “Ha, Ha! Didn’t win as many Oscars as ‘Ben-Her.’ …didn’t make as much as mondy as ‘Passion of the Christ!'”
    Really, people who are proud of nothing so much as the fact that they’re in the majority, really don’t have much, in terms of personal achievement to be proud of, do they?

  29. Nicol D says:

    Let’s be blunt and put Brokeback Mountain in perspective.
    To those that say that its not a hit…you’re wrong. Clearly there is a market for this film and whether or not it gets to 100 mill is kinda redundant. It has done well.
    To those that keep bragging about what a huge smash that it is; that it is turning hearts and minds around the world…when all is said and done Cheaper by the Dozen, Alien V Predator and the Godzilla remake will have touched more people’s hearts and minds than this film.
    I’m not judgin’.
    I’m just sayin’.

  30. DannyBoy says:

    Nicol. That’s absurd, unless you fully equate simply seeing a movie with having your heart and mind touched by it. Yes more people will have seen Alien V Predator than BM–that doesn’t mean it was more than a cinematic big mac for them.

  31. palmtree says:

    I saw Godzilla and it didn’t touch my heart or my mind. It’s not fair or accurate to equate cultural importance with box office. BM has become a cultural touchstone that has meaning outside the theater (can you argue that for AVP, Godzilla, and Cheaper?).
    Brokeback has also done better at the box office than such mainstream big budget movies as Stealth, Doom, Aeon Flux, The Island, etc. but that’s really an apples to oranges thing that Brokeback lovers have steered clear from using (as far as I know).

  32. DannyBoy says:

    By the way, all “Brokeback Mountain” fans should check out the brand new Criterion DVD release of Ingmar Bergman’s “The Virgin Spring”. Ang Lee does the video introduction and talks about how that movie changed his life, “touched his heart and mind,” in a way that many other movies that he’s seen haven’t.
    I’ve said before that one of the amazing things about BM’s success is that it’s an ART FILM doing well, not just that it’s a film about gays doing well. This introduction proves that point. Lee says it’s the film that permanently changed him in terms of his approach to cinema. Interesting to compare Bergman to “Brokeback…,” particularly “The Virgin Sping’s” use of environment to Lee’s use of environment.

  33. Nicol D says:

    I deliberately chose the examples I did because I knew many would find them absurd. To say that people who see BBM are touched but the people who see AVP or Godzilla are not is just arrogance.
    I know, I know…you think I’m going out on a limb and it is about to break.
    Think about the audience for those sci-fi films or the ‘fanboys’ as they are called.
    Y’know…the lonely ones that go to the sci-fi cons and spend 100 dollars for an autograph of Patrick Stewart. To these people these films are a communal experience that allow them to relate to others. They are touchtone experiences that give them a contact to the outside world. It is why Star Trek lasted so many years. It is why certain fanboy websites are so popular. They too…become cultural touchtones for a group that is also disenfranchised and outside the mainstream. You don’t understand it. That’s okay. Many do not understand the appeal of BBM. And that’s okay too. They do not deserve to be vilified for it.
    My point is… BBM has spoke for a core demo of people. I am glad that they have found a film that speaks for them. But boxoffice to some degree is an indicator of mainstream acceptance and while BBM is indeed a hit…it is not the cultural touchstone its backers want it to be.
    Even if it grosses 100 million…more people went to The Pacifier. That does say something whether you like it or not.
    As for BBM influencing other generations of filmmakers. Perhaps. So will The Passion. So will Magnolia. So will Batman Begins. So will Garden State.
    My point is, if BBM speaks to you there is nothing wrong with that. But it is being treated as a cause and overstated for the sake of the cause. That’s not good for art.
    If the only way one can recommend someone to see BBM is because of the cause it represents…that is not what will make people watch in 15 or 20 years. Only the craft will.
    Causes change. Art lasts.

  34. joefitz84 says:

    It’s a cultural touchstone for homosexuals. Not for most everyone else. And it would be a great thing for the homosexual community if it does win an Oscar . But it’s not not a cultural touchstone for any other groups out there. If it was it would be over 100$ million right now instead of grinding it to 50 million.

  35. palmtree says:

    Nicol, no one doubts that fanboys love those genre films. No one doubts that box office means warm bodies in seats probably there to enjoy it.
    But it is still not apt comparison to BM. Why? The ad dollar that studios want to spend on AVP, Godzilla, and Cheaper alone is more than BM’s entire filming budget. Without those ad dollars, that means people are seeing it as a grassroots effort that was, yes, in part helped by gay rights groups but also helped by word of mouth.
    More than that, it is original and not relying on anything other than good acting, good cinematography, good directing, good score, and good script. That to me is art.

  36. etslee says:

    I keep hearing how Brokeback mainly touches the gay community and that it’s a social phenomenon to advance the gay cause. But what I feel makes this film so resonant today in America is that it shows the pain and suffering inflicted on the whole family, not just the lovers. I’ve talked with children and ex-spouses of closeted gay men who feel this film really spoke to them as well. That’s just another reason Brokeback is crossing over to the “mainstream”. Think how many people are impacted by the life of one gay or lesbian person.
    I’m so happy that Ang Lee won the DGA award, and I will definitely check out “The Virgin Spring”.

  37. DannyBoy says:

    Causes change. Art lasts. I dunno. The struggle for freedom for all people seems to be a constant throughout history. On the other hand, how many people do you know who really think a “conversation piece” painting is really still a vital piece of art? I do get your larger point, but would ask you: How is it that Brokeback Mountain is getting all this attention and Making Love, back in 82 didn’t? It’s because BB is a work of great artistry.

  38. DannyBoy says:

    …and all these people giving BM awards, the DGA, the Hollywood Foreign Press, they’re mostly straight. Give them some credit for their taste in film art.

  39. jeffmcm says:

    “My point is, if BBM speaks to you there is nothing wrong with that. But it is being treated as a cause and overstated for the sake of the cause. That’s not good for art.”
    Nicol, to you the film has been overstated for the sake of the cause, but your words seem intended to understate it for the sake of another cause. And yes, more people will have seen The Pacifier, but how many of them, a year later, could actually remember anything significant that happened in that movie? The highest grossing film from ten years ago was Independence Day, but today more people hold films like Fargo closer to their hearts.
    Anyway, even of the film’s impact was limited to the gay or gay-friendly community…so what?

  40. EDouglas says:

    Oh…my…. god… you’re all still arguing about Brokeback! Has anyone started a pool on when it will end?

  41. Eric says:

    etslee, you’ve touched on something that has been bothering me about BBM. The marketing and many of the fans are calling it a great love story, a touching tragedy, and so on.
    But I have trouble sympathizing with characters– particularly Ennis– whose actions destroy others’ lives. To hurt a spouse is one thing, but consider how his actions would affect his children.
    This is a problem I have with so many movie romances, gay or straight. We’re supposed to long for the two leads to end up together, but to get there other people are most likely going to be unfairly hurt. (This is why the “other girl” in movies is so often seen as a shrewish bitch– so we don’t feel guilty that she ends up alone.)
    I liked Brokeback Mountain, but I didn’t love it, and this is one of the reasons why.

  42. Bruce says:

    Brokeback talk will end 2 weeks after the Academy Awards. Either the fans will be gloating or calling for a recount and claiming highway robbery.

  43. waterbucket says:

    Eric, I very much understand your opinion. As a gay person, it’s very easy for me to sympathize with Ennis and understand what he’s done because I’ve seen so many men in the same unfortunate situation. While I’m completely destroyed by the movie’s power, I have no doubt that there are many straight people who would naturally not be able to feel it. But I’m glad that you at least liked it though.

  44. jeffmcm says:

    Bruce if you’re tired of Brokeback talk, QUIT TALKING ABOUT IT, please.

  45. waterbucket says:

    Bruce is actually a BBM fan who is pretending to hate BBM so that the discussion about the movie can be prolonged. So thanks, Bruce, for your sacrifice.
    The Brokeback fans love you.

  46. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    “The makeup looks terrible. She frightens me.”
    er, that’s the point. Nanny McPhee’s $14mil is because it’s british and not in the Harry Potter sense. But, I bet it’ll keep chugging along nicely like it has done everywhere else in the world.
    Onto Brokeback, Yes, it may appear that it has “hit a wall” but if it keeps grossing between $5mil-$10mil for a few more weeks (and it very well can) then that is enough to get it to at least $75mil and then beyond. But it is true that no matter how much it makes haters will be all “it didn’t make as much as_______” and vice versa “it made more than _______”
    But, really – the film is only good things for cinema. It shows that small arthouse movies can still attract crowds if they are about things people want to see. People won’t see “Bubble” but they will see this.
    Plus, hopefully it means for romance movies – and that can only be good news for box-office. Romances are trumps at the box-office.

  47. DannyBoy says:

    Eric’s perspective is perfectly valid. A gay friend of mine felt the exact same way… Doesn’t make the film any less interesting.

  48. Eric says:

    Thanks. You’re right, the film is interesting nonethelss. It’s also more intricate than its marketing– it’s not the unambiguous romance that its ads suggest. Ang Lee is certainly aware of the complexities of his story, but I don’t agree with some of his underlying assumptions upon which the romance is predicated.
    In general, though, and like I said, it’s something that I dislike about both straight and gay romances.
    A person in Ennis’ situation would have my sympathy, because of the societal pressure he feels to hide his true feelings. But you shouldn’t be having kids if you aren’t fully committed to giving them a stable home.

  49. DannyBoy says:

    I think that’s what makes the film so interesting, Eric. Nobody is innocent and yet everybody has their own reasons for what they do and how they act. The great French filmmaker, Jean Renoir said: “everybody has their own good reasons” for what they do, and I think this film really should be seen as more of a tragedy than a romance. It’s hard for me to understand people who “live a lie” and get married and have kids even knowing they’re gay, but society has told people things like: “just get married and have kids and those feelings will go away.” I’ve personally had my religious clergy tell me as much. I’m glad I trused myself and not them. In a way, the people that a lot of women out there should be really angry at are the clergy who have KNOWN that guys in their parish are gay but let them get married, even encourage them to get married, when they should know that won’t solve anything and just make matters worse.
    You’re right about the marketing of “Brokeback Mountain,” though, which tends to simplify it and turn it into something it really isn’t. But it isn’t winning all these awards because it’s a simple love story, it’s winning them, I think, because it’s a complex love story.
    Peace.

  50. palmtree says:

    That’s not the way I read Brokeback (i.e. Ennis leaves his wife in the dust). She feels betrayed and shuts herself off to him. But honestly, there’s enough in the film that I do feel sympathy for them.

  51. Lynn says:

    “Y’know…the lonely ones that go to the sci-fi cons and spend 100 dollars for an autograph of Patrick Stewart. To these people these films are a communal experience that allow them to relate to others. They are touchtone experiences that give them a contact to the outside world. It is why Star Trek lasted so many years. It is why certain fanboy websites are so popular. They too…become cultural touchtones for a group that is also disenfranchised and outside the mainstream.”
    God, what a horribly snobbish, ill-informed perspective.
    I have news for you. Plenty of intelligent, well-rounded, socially capable people, who don’t live in their parents’ basements — both men and women — enjoy genre films, books, and TV shows. It is indeed possible to enjoy something — even to be enthusiastic about it and talk about it with other people — without being a loser.
    To marginalize all of those people into the “get a life” crowd only reveals your own lack of understanding about pop culture and obvious prejudices. (And your attempt to analogize to everyone who’s seen Brokeback Mountain is equally misplaced.)
    I think guys who paint their bodies and go shirtless to football games in 10 degree weather are kind of strange, but I wouldn’t draw conclusions about the rest of their life based on that activity.

  52. Chucky in Jersey says:

    All of us MCNBloggers will dig what somebody posted to Fark today:
    ” ‘Big Momma’s House 2′ sits down on second-best January opening behind ‘Star Wars.’ Submitter’s momma comes in third”

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“I remember very much the iconography and the images and the statues in church were very emotional for me. Just the power of that, and even still — just seeing prayer card, what that image can evoke. I have a lot of friends that are involved in the esoteric, and I know some girls in New York that are also into the supernatural. I don’t feel that I have that gift. But I am leaning towards mysticism… Maybe men are more practical, maybe they don’t give into that as much… And then also, they don’t convene in the same way that women do. But I don’t know, I am not a man, I don’t want to speak for men. For me, I tend to gravitate towards people who are open to those kinds of things. And the idea for my film, White Echo, I guess stemmed from that — I find that the girls in New York are more credible. What is it about the way that they communicate their ideas with the supernatural that I find more credible? And that is where it began. All the characters are also based on friends of mine. I worked with Refinery29 on that film, and found that they really invest in you which is so rare in this industry.”
Chloë Sevigny

“The word I have fallen in love with lately is ‘Hellenic.’ Greek in its mythology. So while everyone is skewing towards the YouTube generation, here we are making two-and-a-half-hour movies and trying to buck the system. It’s become clear to me that we are never going to be a perfect fit with Hollywood; we will always be the renegade Texans running around trying to stir the pot. Really it’s not provocation for the sake of being provocative, but trying to make something that people fall in love with and has staying power. I think people are going to remember Dragged Across Concrete and these other movies decades from now. I do not believe that they will remember some of the stuff that big Hollywood has put out in the last couple of years. You’ve got to look at the independent space to find the movies that have been really special recently. Even though I don’t share the same world-view as some of my colleagues, I certainly respect the hell out of their movies which are way more fascinating than the stuff coming out of the studio system.”
~ Dallas Sonnier